UFC · Sat (5/15) @ 4:00 pm ET
|Toyota Center, Houston, TX|
Fresh off of the Canelo Alvarez vs. Billy Joe Saunders boxing match, Texas will be hosting another major sporting event in front of a sold-out crowd. In front of a live audience, UFC 262 was one of the most anticipated fight cards of the summer until Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards was pushed off of the card. This is still expected to be a very exciting fight card featuring the lightweight belt on the line. UFC 262 odds have been fluctuating since they came out over a month ago.
How To Bet UFC 262
UFC 262 analysis and best bets are below. It is important to recognize that the “best bet” means finding the best value. When betting on the UFC, you will find huge favorites and big underdogs. On one end, you could take a shot at a +300 underdog moneyline and hope for the best. Conversely, you could take the -400 favorite by taking their most likely win condition and get +150 or better.
Typically, betting a fighters’ most likely win condition means the opportunity to bet a big favorite at plus-money odds. Moreover, if you do not have a feel for the fight and don’t have a “best bet” or most likely win condition — it is best to either stay away or bet an alternate round prop. UFC 262 odds are slowly being rolled out across the industry. Thankfully, I have found the best odds across every sportsbook. Be sure to do the same prior to placing your bet; as money comes in, the odds will always change.
Finally, all stats are provided by the great UFCStats who provide the best analytics in the sport.
UFC 262 Odds: Charles Oliveira (-142) vs. Michael Chandler (+116)
As soon as these odds were released, I bet Michael Chandler. Chandler is truly my best bet of this fight card. Charles Oliveira has not faced the level of competition that Michael Chandler has. Oliveira has won seven straight fights in the UFC but none to top contenders. Oliveira’s most likely win condition is via submission in all of his fights. However, heavy top pressure and wrestling is the best way to negate a jiu-jitsu player. That is exactly where Michael Chandler thrives.
Despite his knockout of Dan Hooker in his UFC debut, “Iron” Michael Chandler is known for his incredibly powerful wrestling skills. Furthermore, Chandler brings fantastic finishing abilities. In his 22 career victories, 17 of them have been via submission or knockout. Meaning, the decision prop (+550) is not a play here. Instead, I will bet the rare UFC moneyline bet. Chandler should be a favorite in this fight given his pedigree. Thankfully, I will bet him at plus money and I have not waited around with anticipated odds shifts. Lastly, Chandler’s submission is worthy of a look at +1200. Chandler has 7 submissions in his 22 wins — he is not afraid to grapple if his opponent is hurt.
UFC 262 Best Bets: Michael Chandler ML +116 via PointsBet Sportsbook
UFC 262 Odds: Tony Ferguson (+132) vs. Beneil Dariush (-162)
How the mighty have fallen. Tony Ferguson was once a feared lightweight competitor who was destined to be champion. Unfortunately, fights against Khabib Nurmagomedov were canceled and it never came to fruition. Fast forward a few years and Tony has not won a single round since (maybe) a round 2 win against Justin Gaethje. He was thoroughly dominated in that fight and lost via TKO on his feet.
You have a fight soon, your opponent is very tough and most underestimated in lightweight division, focus on him. I wish you and your family best, even though you look like a shit.
— khabib nurmagomedov (@TeamKhabib) March 31, 2021
Tony appears set on bringing Khabib out of retirement but is clearly overlooking Beneil Dariush. Dariush has been on an absolute tear recently. Since Tony Ferguson’s career has been in total disarray, this is very much a make-or-break moment. Dariush is one of the strongest opponents that Ferguson will face in years. Taking into account that his last victory is over Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone. This guy is a whole different stratosphere and deserves to be a favorite. I would bet Dariush in any capacity. However, a decision is the most likely win condition since it is a three-round fight.
UFC 262 Best Bets: Beneil Dariush via Decision +150 via BetMGM Sportsbook
UFC 262 Odds: Katlyn Chookagian (-142) vs. Vivane Araujo (+116)
This is one of those situations where I have no lean and no feel. The fight will more than likely go to a decision but that is -330 (76.74% implied). I wouldn’t touch these bets across the board. Sometimes the best bet is the one you don’t make. This fight can go either way.
UFC 262 Best Bets: No bet
UFC 262 Odds: Shane Burgos(-134) vs. Edson Barboza (+110)
UFC veteran Edson Barboza faces off against Shane “Hurricane” Burgos on the main card. This is a tough fight for Burgos who has been eating more and more shots as time has gone on. He recently lost to Josh Emmett in his most recent bout. Prior to that, Burgos barely won a split decision to Cub Swanson and even lost to Calvin Kattar. Against the 5’6 Emmett, Burgos lost a decision and continued to get hit at a high rate.
If Burgos does not come into this fight differently, he will have an extremely difficult fight against Barboza. Burgos stands extremely heavy on his front foot making me believe that Barboza will chew up his front leg. Overall, I don’t love this fight for Burgos and think Barboza is a very live dog. I think Barboza’s most likely win condition is by decision. He is currently +260 via decision (27.78% implied). I think this is the best bet of the fight as Barboza will creep towards being a favorite as Saturday draws near.
It is worth noting* Burgos gassed and was stopped by Calvin Kattar in round 3. He also was knocked down and nearly stopped by Josh Emmett. I would recommend a long stab at Barboza via finish in round 3 is +1600 to hedge the decision action.
UFC 262 Best Bets: Barboza by Decision +260 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Matthew Schnell (-164) vs. Rogerio Bontorin (+134)
This was a late add to the main card when Jack Hermansson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan got pushed back. Matt Schnell has always impressed me in the octagon. He has excellent footwork and octagon control. However, he has struggled on the ground in the past. Rogerio is a very strong jiu-jitsu player but struggles on the feet. Styles make matchups here, as per usual.
This is a tough fight to read so I would recommend the round prop bet. Schnell via decision is much too high at +134 when you can get fight to go to a decision at -130. That is a great value given Matt Schnell’s ridiculous decision prop. Schnell has the volume striking advantage and has not knocked an opponent down in three fights. Bontorin struggles to defend strikes (38% striking defense) and absorbs more than he lands (3.12 strikes absorbed per minute vs. 2.19 landed). This is a very difficult matchup for Bontorin, I would be shocked if he was victorious but if he lands multiple takedowns anything is possible.
UFC 262 Best Bets: Fight to go to decision -130 DraftKings Sportsbook