UFC · Sun (6/13) @ 7:00 pm ET
|Gila River Arena, Glendale, AZ|
Two title fights! One of the biggest cards of the year takes place this Saturday night live on Pay-Per-View. The big weekend will take place in Glendale, Arizona in front of a full capacity audience. The fight card will consist of 14 scintillating fights including 3-5 round fights and two championships on the line. GamingToday’s UFC 263 betting picks take on a different look than usual but improved content for all betting and UFC fans.
This week we are taking a look at UFC 263 from a different pxerspective. UFC betting is a science; not just a hobby. Bet smart, bet value, and live bet if you’re comfortable with it. Followers of my UFC breakdowns know that I don’t often bet fights straight up. I prefer to take the most likely method of victory for the fighter I believe is going to win and go that direction.
This time, we are using the entire card — undercard and main card — to bring UFC 263 betting picks to life! All stats are provided by the great UFCStats.com who are extremely appreciated for the best analytics in MMA. Lastly, UFC 263 best bets are located in the props section. These are my favorite bets on this weekend’s card.
UFC 263 Best Straight Pick
Nate Diaz +400 (BetMGM)
- What has Leon Edwards ever done to be a -600 favorite? This line makes no sense, Nate is tough as nails and doesn’t get tired as Edwards has in the past. This is worth a small bet — Edwards has never been this big of a favorite in his entire career. Why he is this big of a favorite against Nate Diaz is an absolute mystery. Leon probably wins but he is not a parlay piece and not worth laying -600 odds on. Diaz is one of the better UFC 263 betting picks that I am comfortable with as a straight bet.
UFC 263 Best Parlay Pick
Belal Muhammad & Israel Adesanya to win +102 (DraftKings)
- Israel Adesanya is one of the best fighters in the UFC. He dominates his opponents at middleweight which is his natural weight class. I think he puts on a show in this fight and KO’s Vettori with relative ease. I think we are getting a discount because he lost to Blahovich at light heavyweight last time out.
- My favorite part of betting this fight is it appears to be a “get right” matchup for Muhammad. His opponent, Demian Maia, is 43 years old and has taken a ton of damage in his career. He also has just 3 wins in his last 7 fights. Two of those wins are against fighters that have since been cut by the UFC. Handwriting is on the wall, Maia is on his way out of the UFC very shortly.
UFC 263 Best Betting Picks And Props
Drew Dober by KO/TKO +460 (FanDuel)
- Justin Gaethje’s main sparring partner — Drew Dober — faces off against Brad Riddell on the undercard Saturday. He is a slight favorite against Riddell who is as durable as they come in the octagon. Dober is an excellent striker but really struggles with grappling. He has lost his last 5 fights via submission. Riddell is not known as a grappler and Dober has knocked out his last 3 wins. +460 is way too high. I projected this line closer to +275.
Co-Main Event: Brandon Moreno Under 2.5 Rounds +1100 via (PointsBet)
- Let’s start with the fact that +1100 for this prop in a fight between featherweights is insane. FightMatrix has featherweight fights ending inside the distance at a 44% clip. Do I think this is entirely likely? Not particularly. However, Moreno has 13 finishes in his 18 wins. He wobbled Figureido multiple times in their first fight. Moreno could absolutely end this fight via knockout. I project this prop bet down to +650 at worst so we are getting a lot of value.
Main Event: Israel Adesanya by KO/TKO +235 (PointsBet)
- Every other sportsbook has this prop under +200. PointsBet is giving us excellent value on the main event! I rewatched the first Adesanya Vettori fight from 2018. That should not have been a split decision. Both fighters have gotten a lot better but I am expecting Izzy to come out with fury after his first UFC loss. Adesanya is an alien and unbelievable talent.
UFC 263 Best Live Betting Spots
Live betting the UFC is so important. Last week I successfully bet Santiago Ponzinibbio at +550 in the second. He went to win by decision. Moreover, I was able to bet Moreno and Figureido to go a draw at +3000 live. If you are watching fights, odds can drastically sway with a single punch. Watch the fights, read the fights, bet the fights, as needed.
Jamahal Hill -300 vs. Paul Craig +200 (William Hill)
Bet against the knockout puncher if their opponent gets out of the first round. If a first-round knockout doesn’t happen, Craig could be a problem with his grappling. We have not seen Hill on the ground much at all. Until we do this could be a good live bet spot.
Movsar Evloev -250 vs. Hakeem Dawodu +195 (BetRivers)
I don’t love either fighter to be certain. However, Evloev was a -900 favorite in his last fight against Nik Lentz and didn’t look great in a split decision win. Dawodu isn’t much of a step up in competition but I think this is an opportunity to bet Dawodu who is an excellent striker.