UFC · Sat (7/10) @ 6:00 pm ET
|T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, NV|
From the sold-out MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas! The most iconic arena in Sin City will be sold out in preparation for “The Notorious” Conor McGregor and Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier. UFC 264 is poised to be the biggest event in the UFC this year – rivaled only by a potential Francis Ngannou vs. Jon Jones fight. UFC 264 odds are slowly being released and Conor McGregor has opened as a -125 favorite.
This is the biggest fight card of the year. Dana White believes that this is going to be bigger than Khabib McGregor which drew well over 2 million PPV buys. Las Vegas is surely going to be at a standstill when McGregor makes that walk to the octagon.
Even better, the fight card is not just a McGregor fight card. The undercard is loaded with unbelievable fights that are Fight Night Main Event quality. Ryan Hall makes his much-anticipated return to the octagon, somehow as a +200 underdog. Michel Periera is one of the most crafty strikers that the UFC has to offer and Carlos Condit will headline the featured prelim bout. The world will be watching UFC 264 in front of a packed T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
The prelims start at 7 PM est. and end around 10 PM est. The Main Card will start at 10 PM est. and finish anywhere between midnight and 1 AM.
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UFC 264 Betting Picks, Analysis, And Important
How To Bet The UFC 264 Main Event
Conor McGregor (+105) vs. Dustin Poirier (-130)
There is so much to unpack here. Conor looked awesome in the first round and appeared to hurt Poirier on multiple occasions. However, Poirier landed several low-calf kicks starting at around the 2-minute mark of the first round. Somehow, Conor did not know how to check a leg kick. From that point on, Conor was very stationary with a badly hurt lead leg. Unfortunately for McGregor backers, he would be knocked out for the first time in his UFC career.
Analyzing this fight is difficult because there are so many outside the octagon factors. Each fighters’ mental capacity going in will tell a lot about how the fight will go. Poirier admitted to being psyched out by Conor in their first fight. In the second one, Conor came out and looked a bit jittery and had a whole new “Nice Guy” persona that he was testing. Importantly, per Conor’s Instagram, he appears to have dropped his flat-footed boxing stance and is moving in back to the karate-like style that got him to the dance.
Speaking just in terms of value, McGregor will be the value play early. Conor opened as a -150 favorite but now there are rumors that he has a staph infection. That is bad news for Conor fans as staph infections typically require antibiotics which are terrible for endurance, food consumption, and energy levels. That news has forced Conor down to a +105 underdog in this fight. A spot that I think could be quite favorable. Overall, his best spot is to win in under 2.5 rounds at +265 on PointsBet. Conor does not have a KO victory after the second round, he is unlikely to win a decision against the higher volume, Dustin Poirier.
If Poirier escapes round one unscathed, that is the best chance to bet him. I would not recommend a bet on him until the first round is over, even if it means getting a worse betting line.
UFC 264 Betting Pick: Conor McGregor under 2.5 rounds +265. Live bet Poirier after round 1. (PointsBet)
Gilbert Burns (+115) vs. Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson (-139)
A number one-contender fight? It sure looks like it is. Gilbert Burns just fought for the title and nearly knocked Kamaru Usman out in round one. He would go on to lose the fight and is now facing off with Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. Unlike Burns’ past fight with Usman, Wonderboy is a former professional kickboxer with excellent striking.
My initial expectation was to bet Burns in this fight. He has more ways to win, incredible power in his hands, and far superior jiu-jitsu skills. However, I think that Thompson is the side here. Thompson stuffed 27 of 29 takedowns since his opening fight against Matt Brown. That is a huge number and I am legitimately questioning if Burns can get this to the mat. If Thompson is smart, he will pick Burns apart with kicks and frustrate Burns who has a very questionable gas tank.
UFC 264 Betting Pick: Thompson via decision +150 (BetMGM)
Sean O’Malley (-1000) vs. Kris Moutinho (+575)
I actually thought O’Malley could have a tough fight against Louis Smolka. Unfortunately, that fight was scrapped because of an injury and Kris Moutinho will step in. Moutinho feels like he’s in there as a sacrificial lamb. The UFC is giving O’Malley a layup here to give him one more highlight-reel finish before giving him a legitimate opponent. Moutinho probably isn’t a UFC caliber fighter, to begin with. To add insult to injury, he is making his UFC debut on Saturday meaning he will be nervous having never been on the stage before. This is a dream come true moment for him and rightfully so, congrats to Kris for making the main card of a UFC Conor McGregor fight card.
However, taking this on short notice as a 9-4 fighter and being knocked out twice in 2019 is a bad, bad spot for him. O’Malley is a knockout machine and should be able to annihilate him in short order. My pick on this fight is no disrespect to Moutinho, I just think O’Malley is a world-class striker.
UFC 264 Betting Pick: O’Malley first-round KO +118 and to win inside 60 seconds +525 (PointsBet)
Carlos Condit (+150) vs. Max Griffin (-190)
The prelims main event! This is a huge fight that will be live on ESPN. Condit is tough as nails and will be very difficult to finish. If he is unable to land the knockout, Griffin has lost 4 of his last decisions. Some styles are not conducive to winning decisions. Griffin certainly appears like one of those fighters. Condit has only been TKO’d once in his career, a leg kick TKO to Tyron Woodley in 2014. I don’t see Griffin changing that and landing a knockout, I will take Condit here. Condit looked excellent in his last two fights against Matt Brown and Court McGee. I am not a big believer in Griffin, despite his crazy athleticism.
UFC 264 Betting Pick: Carlos Condit +150 (DraftKings)
Ryan Hall (+198) vs. Ilia Topuria (-250)
This is the second most exciting fight on the card in my opinion. Ryan Hall is the Brazilian jiu-jitsu master who has been known for his incredible leg locks. Topuria is 24 years old and undefeated. He beat up Damon Jackson in his last fight, first-round knockout. -250 favorite seems like a lot of juice. Ryan Hall has some seriously improved strikes so I am favoring Hall with the value. Despite the fact that Topuria has excellent jiu-jitsu, Hall has, perhaps, the best leg-locks in MMA history. Hall by submission is +500 on PointsBet, every other sportsbook has it closer to +350. Value alert.
UFC 264 Betting Pick: Ryan Hall submission +500 (PointsBet)