UFC · Sat (7/10) @ 6:00 pm ET
|T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, NV|
From the sold-out MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas! The most iconic arena in Sin City will be sold out in preparation for “The Notorious” Conor McGregor and Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier. UFC 264 is poised to be the biggest event in the UFC this year – rivaled only by a potential Francis Ngannou vs. Jon Jones fight. UFC 264 odds are slowly being released and Conor McGregor has opened as a -125 favorite.
Dana White and co. are working on stacking this card up with big-time fights. They have delivered that promise with ease. This fight card features a number one contender fight between Gilbert Burns and Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. Moreover, this card features “Suga” Sean O’Malley who is a rising star in the UFC. O’Malley features rainbow-colored hair and some unbelievable, highlight reel, knockouts. Get your popcorn ready this is gonna be a good one.
As the card becomes more filled out, we will update and cover all of the odds changes – there will be a lot of them. Lastly, all stats are provided by UFCStats who take MMA analytics to the next level.
UFC 264 Betting Picks, Analysis, And
How To Bet UFC 264’s Main Event
Conor McGregor (-118) vs. Dustin Poirier (-102)
There is so much to unpack here. Conor looked awesome in the first round and appeared to hurt Poirier on multiple occasions. However, Poirier landed several low-calf kicks starting at around the 2-minute mark of the first round. Somehow, Conor did not know how to check a leg kick. From that point on, Conor was very stationary with a badly hurt lead leg. Unfortunately for McGregor backers, he would be knocked out for the first time in his UFC career.
Analyzing this fight is difficult because there are so many outside the octagon factors. Each fighters’ mental capacity going in will tell a lot about how the fight will go. Poirier admitted to being psyched out by Conor in their first fight. In the second one, Conor came out and looked a bit jittery and had a whole new “Nice Guy” persona that he was testing. Importantly, per Conor’s Instagram, he appears to have dropped his flat-footed boxing stance and is moving in back to the karate-like style that got him to the dance.
Speaking just in terms of value, McGregor will be the value play early. There is almost zero chance that Conor ends as a -125 favorite. He will surely end closer to -175 because his fan base bets on him so heavily. Furthermore, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering the full slate of betting for this fight already. FanDuel Sportsbook had a ridiculous line at the opening which was Conor McGregor to win via third-round KO +3000. That is long gone and corrected down to +1400.
Conor has lost to most of his top competitors. He is facing the best fighter in the lightweight division. Most likely, I think Poirier wins. I do like a round prop here. Fight to start round 3 is -102 on FanDuel. I think that’s a solid value, Conor needs to prove to me he can win a fight against a top-caliber fighter.
UFC 264 Betting Pick: Fight To Start Round 3 -102 (Fanduel)
Gilbert Burns (+115) vs. Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson (-139)
A number one-contender fight? It sure looks like it is. Gilbert Burns just fought for the title and nearly knocked Kamaru Usman out in round one. He would go on to lose the fight and is now facing off with Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. Unlike Burns’ past fight with Usman, Wonderboy is a former professional kickboxer with excellent striking.
I am not sure why Burns is an underdog here. Wonderboy is a phenomenal kickboxer but has never been known for his ground game. Burns is so much better on the ground I think he is undervalued. Burns averages 2.08 takedowns per 15 minutes and he should continue that trend against Thompson. Along with Burns’ grappling advantage, I think he also maintains the power edge. Burns opened as a +132 underdog but has dropped to +115, I would expect this to be near even money by fight time.
UFC 264 Betting Pick: Burns +115 (BetMGM)
Sean O’Malley (-345) vs. Louis Smolka (+270)
The Sugar Show is back in town. One of the most exciting fighters that the UFC has to offer is back and has a very favorable matchup against Louis Smolka. Unfortunately, this makes it particularly difficult to bet on. I would not recommend too many bets on this until the method of victory props are released. My immediate reaction is to bet Smolka ML because the line is wide and O’Malley has lost as a big favorite in the past.
UFC 264 Betting Pick: Wait For Method Of Victory Props/Live Bet Smolka after round 1
Prelims: Sean Brady (-160) vs. Kevin Lee (+132)
Sean Brady is one of my favorite fighters in the UFC. The dude is an absolute beast and he hails from Philadelphia. I have training partners who have trained with him so there may be some bias there. However, Sean is an animal and Kevin Lee thinks he’s a better grappler than he is. He will not be afraid to go to the ground with Sean but he should be. 4 of Lee’s last 3 losses are by submission and Brady has a nasty submission grappling game. When method of victory props are released, take Lee by KO or Brady by submission.
UFC 264 Betting Pick: Brady by Sub or Lee by KO (pending the value)