UFC 267 is shockingly not a PPV card and will be free for ESPN+ subscribers, as the promotion returns to Fight Island in Abu Dhabi. The action starts Saturday at 2 p.m ET with a loaded preliminary card and culminates the main event between Jan Blachowicz and Glover Teixeira. There are 15 fights on the card with plenty of massive favorites throughout. My UFC 267 picks include a few underdogs and some prop bets at plus-money.
UFC · Sat (10/30) @ 5:30 pm ET
|Fight Island -- Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, NJ|
As UFC 267 odds begin to trickle out, it is important to note the numbers at which I am betting these fights. As of this writing, DraftKings and FanDuel are among the sportsbooks that have UFC 267 prop bets available. As the week progresses, the lines will move and more books will hang method of victory props and other markets. Check out all of the sportsbooks listed below for the best odds available for your picks.
The UFC’s five most recent five-round fights have all ended by decision. This is a trend worth monitoring. It seems fighters are increasingly cautious if they cannot stop their opponents.
UFC 267 will take place in the larger cage typically reserved for PPV cards since the pandemic.
UFC 267 Odds And Betting Picks
Jan Blachowicz (-300) vs. Glover Teixeira (+235) — odds provided by DraftKings
Blachowicz Keys To Victory
If this fight ends up as a striking battle, Blachowicz likely wins by KO/TKO. Odds for that result are sitting at +100, making it by far the most likely win condition of any method this fight. Blachowicz is a nasty striker who has knocked out three of his last five opponents. Jan has the power to put Glover down early.
A specific problem for Glover is his chin seems to be waning. He was knocked down by Thiago Santos in his last fight, after being put on the canvas by Ion Cutelaba and Karl Roberson. Blachowicz could just storm Glover early and win this fight inside the first two rounds.
Teixeira Keys To Victory
To keep it simple, Glover needs to avoid trouble early. He has consistently run into problems early in fights. Glover is at his best when he is grappling — this is where he can pull off a victory. Glover averages 2.04 takedowns per 15 minutes and exhausts his opponents. If he can get his hands on Blachowicz and bring him down to the ground, Glover will be in an excellent position to win.
Blachowicz’s takedown defense was suspect earlier in his career. However, he has been taken down only two times in his last 10 fights. During that span, he is defending takedowns at an 87.5% rate (2 for 16). If Glover can dominate the grappling, he could realize his dream of being the champion.
Blachowicz vs. Teixeira Betting Pick
The problem with the numbers that show Blachowicz has drastically improved his takedown defense is that none of those opponents have the grappling credentials Glover does. The line on Glover to win this fight by decision is +1000 on DraftKings. While this is not the most likely outcome, it is Glover’s most likely win condition. Blachowicz could easily knockout Glover in the first few minutes, but the sportsbooks are banking on that on Saturday, creating betting value elsewhere.
UFC 267 Prop Betting Pick: Glover Teixeira by decision +1000 | Glover over 2.5 rounds +500
Petr Yan (-275) vs. Cory Sandhagen (+220) odds provided by BetMGM
The other title fight this weekend features Cory Sandhagen and Petr Yan. Cory is the much larger fighter, standing at 5-foot-11, compared to Yan at 5-foot-7. Yan is the superior grappler by a mile, but his striking could be suspect Saturday.
Yan Keys To Victory
Finding holes in Yan’s game is nearly impossible. His grappling is top-tier, and his striking has shown to be next level. He will want to remain on the outside from Sandhagen and not allow him to counterpunch his way to victory. Yan has solid low calf kicks, which present Sandhagen an even bigger problem if he can’t avoid them. If this goes to decision, Yan likely wins this fight.
Sandhagen Keys To Victory
Sandhagen is much larger than Yan, which helps his takedown defense. Cory has creative striking with wild power in his knees, elbows, and punches. Cory is a live underdog this weekend, and I would love to see him win via spinning elbow. Moreover, his striking volume is more than enough ammunition to keep Yan off him in the clinch in grappling.
UFC 267 Betting Pick: Sandhagen ML +220 | Sandhagen by KO/TKO +650
Islam Makhachev (-650) vs. Dan Hooker (+430) — odds provided by PointsBet
Dan Hooker likes playing with fire! He comes off of a victory on September 25 to fight the most feared man in the lightweight division. Islam Makhachev is Khabib’s protege and sparring partner — he has dominated most fighters he has faced. Hooker has no hope in this fight unless he can stop Islam from taking him down.
Makhachev averages 3.31 takedowns per 15 minutes, per UFCStats. He is also the all-time leader in takedown accuracy in the lightweight division at a 65.7% success rate. Hooker is a big step up in competition for Makhachev, so a bet on Hooker isn’t the worst thing at huge odds. However, sportsbooks see Makhachev as a points fighter that out-grapples his opponent and is content winning on the cards. Islam has not shown that yet, so his submission prop is particularly juicy at +240.
Makhachev has 12 wins by finish including his last two by submission.
UFC 267 Betting Pick: Islam Makhachev by submission +240
Alexander Volkov (-290) vs. Marcin Tybura (+225) — odds provided by FanDuel
Alexander Volkov is one of the biggest fighters in the heavyweight division. Standing at 6-foot-7, Volkov is able to hit his opponents while others can’t hit him back. Marcin Tybura needs to close the distance early to have any chance of dragging him to the mat. Tybura is a skilled grappler but is unlikely to win a stand-up battle Saturday. Volkov should have the size to avoid significant confrontation with his opponent in grappling/clinch exchanges. I lean Volkov’s decision prop here, but +180 isn’t good enough value. I want +200 or better.
UFC 267 Prop Betting Pick: Goes to decision +110
Li Jingliang (+390) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (-530) — odds provided by WynnBet
Once the scariest fighter everyone wanted to avoid, Khamzat Chimaev is finally back. After ending 2020 with three incredible finishes, he had a brutal battle with COVID-19. This is the x-factor Saturday, as Khamzat announced his retirement while battling the virus. It was so bad Dana White put Khamzat on an emergency flight to get him better medical care than he was receiving in Russia.
COVID-19 aside, Khamzat should win this fight going away. He is every bit the future star the UFC tabbed him as. He has barely been hit and is a massive 6-foot-2 and 170 pounds. Li Jingliang is a step up in competition for Khamzat, but I don’t see Khamzat losing Saturday.
UFC 267 Betting Pick: Chimaev to win in Round 2 (+430)
Magomed Ankalaev (-315) vs. Volkan Oezdemir (+240) — odds provided by BetRivers
Another Russian prospect the UFC is preparing to launch into stardom is Magomed Ankalaev. In his way is Volkan Oezdemir, among the old guard in the UFC. Oezdemir has run into plenty of hard times recently, losing four of his last six fights — three inside the distance. Magomed only has one fluke loss to Paul Craig but should be undefeated. Many think Ankalaev is the future champion of the light heavyweight division.
Unfortunately, there is no value across the board on his prop bets. Maybe this will change as the odds move, but I’ll use Ankalaev in a parlay with one of his Russian countrymen.
UFC 267 Betting Pick: Ankalaev -340 as a parlay piece