Ciryl Gane opened as an underdog over Francis Ngannou in the main event of UFC 270 but has been catapulted to a favorite on oddsboards in early betting action.
An expected sold-out crowd will be on hand at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California for the card featuring two title fights: the Ngannou-Gane heavyweight bout and the Deiveson Figueiredo-Brandon Moreno trilogy for the flyweight belt.
Here are odds and best bets for UFC 270, with lines current as of January 5.
UFC · Sat (1/22) @ 11:55 pm ET
|Honda Center, Anaheim, CA|
UFC 270 Odds, Analysis & Picks
Ciryl Gane (-115) vs. Francis Ngannou (-105) — odds provided by DraftKings
Ngannou keys to victory: Francis Ngannou hits harder than anyone in the world not named Deontay Wilder, who is a boxer. His key to victory is to land heavy shots on an opponent and watch him go to sleep. Ngannou is a scary fighter, one the UFC needs to be careful who they match up against. If they give him guys who cannot hang with him, there is a major safety concern for the opponent.
Gane keys to victory: Cyril Gane is the toughest match Ngannou has faced to date. Gane is an absolute technician, boasting an undefeated 13-0 Muay Thai record and 10-0 in MMA. Not only has he never lost, he has never even had a competitive fight. The only thing we do not know about Gane is how he deals with takedowns, which Ngannou is unlikely to attempt.
Gane vs. Ngannou Best Bets
Ngannou is on his last fight of his UFC contract. With rumors he is fleeing to boxing for his big payday, that is never a recipe of a fighter I want to bet on. A fighter with one foot out the door is a fighter to fade.
Gane could have some takedowns in his repertoire, and his kicks should help him keep the distance. Ngannou will charge at Gane multiple times with the hope of landing a knockout.
If you want to back Ngannou, the best way to do it is with his KO/TKO prop at +130 or better. Ngannou has one way to win against this technician of a fighter.
Gane is 6-foot-4 and 247-pounds, with an 83-inch reach (per Tapology), while Ngannou comes in at 6-foot-4 and 263, with an 84-inch reach. Gane is smaller, but the size disadvantage isn’t enough to scare me away. Gane is my best bet on the card.
UFC 270 picks: Gane ML -115 | Gane wins ITD +190 (FanDuel)
Deiveson Figueiredo (+145) vs Brandon Moreno (-175) — odds provided by BetMGM
Figueiredo keys to victory: Once considered the most untouchable flyweight in the world, Deiveson Figueiredo is now an underdog with a few holes in his game. His explosive movements are extremely impressive and incredibly effective in the cage.
However, Brandon Moreno refused to go away in the first and second fights against Figueiredo. While Moreno won by submission in June 2021, the first meeting, in December 2020, was ruled a draw. If you ask me, Moreno won both of them.
Figueiredo needs to get Moreno out of there early or show off better cardio. If he doesn’t, the third fight won’t be much better for him than the first two.
Moreno Keys To Victory: As a +200 underdog in the first fight, Moreno fought Figueiredo to a draw. In the second fight, Moreno was again an underdog and won by submission at +1100 (which I correctly predicted). Moreno has gone through the gauntlet at flyweight, defeating Kai-Kara France, Brandon Royval, and Figueiredo for the title. Moreno is a rightful favorite and should be live for a late finish or decision win.
Figueiredo vs. Moreno Best Bets
Figueiredo did not look like himself last time out. A brutal weight cut could be the reason, but the problem is unlikely to go away. Moreno used his jab to tremendous effectiveness in both fights and would be wise to continue doing that.
These two know each other so well that my expectation is this fight goes to a decision. Last time out, the odds were -110 both ways on the ‘will fight go the distance’ prop. Currently, the fight to go to decision can be found at +152, which is a big overcorrection. These fighters have been finished only one time in their professional career combined.
Moreno to win by decision is +250, which is a little low, so we hope to grab a Moreno ‘over’ 2.5 rounds bet at +120 or better as the fight gets closer.
Expect Figueiredo to have a better performance this time, but still have a tough time pulling off a victory.
UFC 270 Picks: Fights goes to decision +152 (FanDuel) | Moreno Over 2.5 rounds +120 or better
Ilia Topuria (-118) vs. Movsar Evloev (+100) — odds provided by FanDuel
A pair of undefeated contenders face off in the UFC featherweight division. Movsar Evloev is a 15-0 underdog with almost no competitive fights yet. Ilia Topuria is a bit too raw in the UFC for me to back as a favorite.
Evloev is a somewhat boring fighter, shooting unrelenting takedowns against his opponents. His control and cardio could be a problem for Topuria, who hasn’t been tested as a defensive grappler.
Evloev as an underdog is my pick, but if Topuria were to hit underdog status. I would flip to Topuria. The edge is razor-thin.
UFC 270 Pick: Evloev +105 (DraftKings)
Prelim Bet: Michael Morales (-150) vs. Trevin Giles (+120) — odds provided by PointsBet
This prelim fight should be plenty competitive but contains a ton of unknowns. For starters, Michael Morales’ one fight in the UFC was as a betting underdog where neither fighter looked great. The fact that he got a UFC contract without a signature moment was surprising.
Regardless, our knowledge base is next to nothing on Morales, and we know that Trevin Giles can hang with some solid fighters. Giles as an underdog here is disrespectful. Consider this a refusal to bet Morales as a favorite until he proves he belongs in the UFC.
UFC 270 Pick: Trevin Giles ML +120 (PointsBet)