UFC 270 Odds, Picks, Props: Massive Overcorrection In Gane vs. Ngannou Betting Line

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Ciryl Gane (r) bet to favorite status over Francis Ngannou ahead of UFC 270 (Photo by Louis Grasse/PxImages/Icon Sportswire)

Ciryl Gane opened as an underdog over Francis Ngannou in the main event of UFC 270 but has been catapulted to a favorite on oddsboards in early betting action.

An expected sold-out crowd will be on hand at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California for the card featuring two title fights: the Ngannou-Gane heavyweight bout and the Deiveson Figueiredo-Brandon Moreno trilogy for the flyweight belt.

Here are odds and best bets for UFC 270, with lines current as of January 5.

Ciryl Gane vs Francis Ngannou Odds UFC Odds

UFC · Sat (1/22) @ 11:55 pm ET

Ciryl Gane at Francis Ngannou
Honda Center, Anaheim, CA

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UFC 270 Odds, Analysis & Picks

Ciryl Gane (-115) vs. Francis Ngannou (-105) — odds provided by DraftKings

Updated DraftKings odds (Thursday): Gane -145, Ngannou +125

Ngannou keys to victory: Francis Ngannou hits harder than anyone in the world not named Deontay Wilder, who is a boxer. His key to victory is to land heavy shots on an opponent and watch him go to sleep. Ngannou is a scary fighter, one the UFC needs to be careful who they match up against. If they give him guys who cannot hang with him, there is a major safety concern for the opponent.

Ngannou Strengths
+Power
+Size
+Strength

Ngannou Weaknesses
-Technical Striking
-Takedown Defense
-Cardio
-Striking Volume

Gane keys to victory: Cyril Gane is the toughest match Ngannou has faced to date. Gane is an absolute technician, boasting an undefeated 13-0 Muay Thai record and 10-0 in MMA. Not only has he never lost, he has also never even had a competitive fight. The only thing we do not know about Gane is how he deals with takedowns, which Ngannou is unlikely to attempt.

Gane Strengths
+Kicks
+Technical Boxing
+Elbows
+Distance Management

Gane Weaknesses
-Size
-Power
-Wrestling?

Gane vs. Ngannou Best Bets

Ngannou is on his last fight of his UFC contract. With rumors he is fleeing to boxing for his big payday, that is never a recipe of a fighter I want to bet on. A fighter with one foot out the door is a fighter to fade.

Gane could have some takedowns in his repertoire, and his kicks should help him keep the distance. Ngannou will charge at Gane multiple times with the hope of landing a knockout.

If you want to back Ngannou, the best way to do it is with his KO/TKO prop at +130 or better. Ngannou has one way to win against this technician of a fighter.

Gane is 6-foot-4 and 247-pounds, with an 83-inch reach (per Tapology), while Ngannou comes in at 6-foot-4 and 263, with an 84-inch reach. Gane is smaller, but the size disadvantage isn’t enough to scare me away. Gane is my best bet on the card, per Thursday’s odds.

UFC 270 Fight Week Update

If you missed out on Gane at pick em’ status, the value is gone. His odds skyrocketed to as high as -160, a massive overcorrection. Back Ngannou at his new plus-money price because this flight is truly a coin-flip.

My concerns about Ngannou’s potential pivot to boxing remain. But from a betting perspective, going from a -120 favorite to a +130 underdog is a vast difference.

Everyone has a price at which a bet becomes a pass, and my price has been hit as a Gane bettor. If you followed my advice on Gane and bet this early, you could do worse than a small hedge on Ngannou.

My official pick is still Gane, because I hold a sizable ticket with a whopping 30 cents of value, per prices as of this Thursday update.

My hedge is a bet on Ngannou to win in under 2.5 rounds at +270 on PointsBet. That is 75% of his win condition at least, as most of his matches end via brutal knockout early in the fight.

UFC 270 picks: Gane ML -115 | Gane wins ITD +190 (FanDuel)

Deiveson Figueiredo (+145) vs Brandon Moreno (-175) — odds provided by BetMGM

Figueiredo keys to victory: Once considered the most untouchable flyweight in the world, Deiveson Figueiredo is now an underdog with a few holes in his game. His explosive movements are extremely impressive and incredibly effective in the cage.

However, Brandon Moreno refused to go away in the first and second fights against Figueiredo. While Moreno won by submission in June 2021, the first meeting, in December 2020, was ruled a draw. If you ask me, Moreno won both of them.

Figueiredo needs to get Moreno out of there early or show off better cardio. If he doesn’t, the third fight won’t be much better for him than the first two.

Figueiredo Strengths:
+Striking Power
+Speed (early)
+Strength (early)
+Athleticism

Figueiredo Weaknesses:
-Grappling
-Cardio
-Volume

Moreno Keys To Victory: As a +200 underdog in the first fight, Moreno fought Figueiredo to a draw. In the second fight, Moreno was again an underdog and won by submission at +1100 (which I correctly predicted). Moreno has gone through the gauntlet at flyweight, defeating Kai-Kara France, Brandon Royval, and Figueiredo for the title. Moreno is a rightful favorite and should be live for a late finish or decision win.

Moreno Strengths:
+Grappling
+Leg Kicks
+Volume Striking
+Jabs

Moreno Weaknesses:
-Power
-Athleticism

Figueiredo vs. Moreno Best Bets

Figueiredo did not look like himself last time out. A brutal weight cut could be the reason, but the problem is unlikely to go away. Moreno used his jab to tremendous effectiveness in both fights and would be wise to continue doing that.

These two know each other so well that my expectation is this fight goes to a decision. Last time out, the odds were -110 both ways on the ‘will fight go the distance’ prop. Currently, the fight to go to decision can be found at +152, which is a big overcorrection. These fighters have been finished only one time in their professional career combined.

Fight week update: I was hoping for stronger odds on Moreno’s props, but that hasn’t materialized. I’m backing Figueiredo here with more value on his side. 

Figueiredo announced a few weeks ago that he is training with former flyweight and bantamweight champion, and Olympic gold medal wrestler, Henry Cejudo.

There is also some bad blood between Cejudo and Moreno.

 

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A post shared by Henry Cejudo (@henry_cejudo)

I rarely flip-flop on UFC fights, but I am backing Figueiredo at the updated odds, barring a terrible weigh-in like before their last fight.  I am betting one unit on Figueiredo +155 ML and a half-unit on him to win by decision +500.

If Figueiredo listens to Cejudo, he will rely heavily on wrestling and top control to win this fight. He appears to be in the best shape of his life heading into Saturday. Get ready for the rare fourth fight.

UFC 270 Picks: Fights goes to decision +152 (UPDATE: now +120, would still bet it down to +110) (FanDuel) | Moreno Over 2.5 rounds +120 or better Figueiredo ML +155 1 unit | Figuriredo by decision +500 0.5 unit (PointsBet)

Prelim Bet: Michael Morales (-150) vs. Trevin Giles (+120) — odds provided by PointsBet

This prelim fight should be plenty competitive but contains a ton of unknowns. For starters, Michael Morales’ one fight in the UFC was as a betting underdog where neither fighter looked great. The fact that he got a UFC contract without a signature moment was surprising.

Regardless, our knowledge base is next to nothing on Morales, and we know that Trevin Giles can hang with some solid fighters. Giles as an underdog here is disrespectful. Consider this a refusal to bet Morales as a favorite until he proves he belongs in the UFC.

UFC 270 Pick: Trevin Giles ML +120 (PointsBet)

Editor’s note: The Ilia Topuria vs. Movsar Evloev bout, discussed in this post in its first publication, is off the card after Evloev withdrew due to a positive COVID test.

UFC 270 Prop Bets

Cody Stamann Decision Only +150 (DraftKings)

This is a DraftKings exclusive. Cody Stamann fancies himself a wrestler with fair kickboxing. Said Nurmagomedov might have the Nurmagomedov name, but we have seen him get taken down before and lose a decision.

What ‘decision only’ means is that if this fight ends in a finish, regardless of who wins, the bet is a push. This bet is action only if the fight goes to a decision. Nurmagomedov has finished most of his opponents, and Stamann has never finished his opponent (he has nine UFC fights and all five of his wins are by decision).

This is worth a stab even though Stamann is far less physically gifted than Said Nurmagomedov.

Pete Rodriguez by KO/TKO +475 (DraftKings) | R1 KO/TKO +1100 (FanDuel)

Pete Rodriguez has only four professional fights, but his limited tape is pretty impressive. All four of his wins are in the first round. He is taking this fight on short notice, so don’t break your bank thinking this is a “lock” or anything even close to that.

We just know that first-round KO is most of his win condition and something he will be pushing for in his UFC debut. Going for the early finish is half the battle when betting a R1 KO/TKO prop.

Rodolfo Vieira/Wellington Turman Draw +6600 (PointsBet)

I have made a serious amount of money betting ‘draw’ in the UFC, and the argument for a draw here is quite simple: Vieira has questionable cardio but comes out of the gate like a mad man. Turman has a suspect chin and gets knocked out more than any fighter I have seen.

This is to say, Vieira could get close to a finish in the first round as Turman is backed up and wobbled. If Vieira does not get the finish, the first round could be scored 10-8 by the judges. Assuming Turman survives, he would have a good chance of winning the second and third rounds (10-9 each in this scenario), thanks to Vieira’s horrific cardio. If scored how I am predicting the fight would end in a 28-28 draw. Worth a shot at 66-to-1 odds!

About the Author
Erich Richter

Erich Richter

Erich is a New York-based writer and gambling expert specializing in the sports industry. His work is featured in numerous publications. Erich is a diehard Mets, Giants, and Knicks fan (it’s been tough). Twitter: @erichterrr

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