UFC 272 is set for Saturday in Las Vegas in front of an expected sold-out crowd at T-Mobile Arena. Jorge Masvidal vs. Colby Covington in the main event is a modern-day grudge match between two former best friends turned enemies. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, UFC 272 odds have Covington as a -320 favorite and Masvidal a +250 underdog.
This fight has interesting storylines and features a clash of styles, and there could be plenty of trash talk along the way.
Below I breakdown UFC 272 odds and offer picks for Covington vs. Masvidal, plus several other fights on this weekend’s PPV card and the prelims.
UFC · Sat (3/5) @ 11:55 pm ET
|Jorge Masvidal||at||Colby Covington|
|T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV|
UFC 272 Odds, Betting Analysis & Picks
Colby Covington (-320) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+250) — odds provided by DraftKings
Covington keys to victory: Covington has far more ways to win this Welterweight fight than Masvidal. Covington has the best striking volume in the game and can wrestle about as well as anyone. Masvidal has to battle all of that.
+Grappling and Wrestling
Masvidal keys to victory: Perhaps the only weakness in Covington’s game is his power. Masvidal has deadly power in his hands, which could put Covington to sleep.
Covington vs. Masvidal Best Bets
At -320, Covington is a bigger favorite than the -260 Kamaru Usman closed at in his rematch against Masvidal in June. This is a bizarre reality, and it seems sportsbooks are hanging bigger prices on UFC favorites recently. Still, Masvidal is on the wrong side of his career, making this an obvious Covington spot.
For this fight, any of Covington’s method of victory props are difficult to bet on. His most likely method of victory is a decision (-110). However, given the grudge between these two and Masvidal being shockingly knocked out by Usman his last time out, Covington ITD (inside the distance) is a tasty prop at +225 on DraftKings. If Usman did not exist, we would be living in a Covington Welterweight Champion world.
UFC 272 pick: Covington ITD +225 (DraftKings)
Rafael Dos Anjos (-165) vs. Renato Moicano (+140) — odds provided by BetMGM
With just one week’s notice, Renato Moicano steps in to face Rafael Dos Anjos in place of the injured Rafael Fiziev. Moicano is coming off a dominant win over Alexander “The Great Ape” Hernandez. However, Dos Anjos is a much tougher opponent who is not taking this on such short notice.
Moicano flew nine hours to Brazil and then had to turn around and get on another flight to Vegas, which reportedly had two stops. He also has to lose 20-pounds. Dos Anjos is the worthy bet here.
Moicano is in Brazil. He flies out to Vegas today. He currently weighs 180 pounds per his manager, @ko_reps.
— Ariel Helwani (@arielhelwani) March 1, 2022
UFC 272 pick: Dos Anjos ML -165 (BetMGM)
Prelim: Devonte Smith (-172) vs. Ludovit Klein (+150) odds provided by Fanduel
My favorite bet on the card is fading knockout artist Devonte Smith in this prelim bout. Followers of Gaming Today’s UFC picks know that knockout artists are my least favorite bets in the UFC. I fade them constantly, as they have only one way to win a fight.
The applies here for Smith, who has lost two of his last three outings to below-average fighters in Khama Worthy and Jamie Mullarkey. His win in that span was against Justin Jaynes, who is no longer employed by the UFC.
Back Klein, the more technical fighter who has more ways to win this weekend.
UFC 272 pick: Ludovit Klein +150 (DraftKings)
UFC 272 Props and Parlays
UFC 272 Parlay +341
Play: Rodriguez -265 + Covington -340 + Agapova -205 + Smith/Klein Over 1.5 Rounds -150
Bryce Mitchell wins by decision +280 (FanDuel)
Many see Bryce Mitchell as a surprising favorite over Edson Barboza, but I do not see it that way. Mitchell is the better grappler and an improving striker. He is 14-0 and 5-o in UFC, with four of his victories in this promotion coming by submission.
Barboza has been taken down plenty in his career, which makes me question his ability to stay standing. But the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is unlikely to be submitted.
The fight to go to a decision at +120 is a worthy wager in its own right.