UFC 274 Odds And Props: Lines Shift As Oliveira Misses Weight, Loses Belt

UFC 274 just became a lot more intriguing only one day before fight night.

The MMA community was stunned by news of (now former) UFC Lightweight Champion Charles Oliveira being stripped of his belt after missing weight at Friday’s weigh-ins prior to his title bout with Justin Gaethje. The UFC 274 odds and props at sportsbooks have been impacted by the shocking news.

Oliveira’s initial weight came in at 156 pounds, one pound over the 155-pound limit. He was given an additional hour to make weight again, but unfortunately failed on his second attempt by coming in just half a pound over at 155.5. This caused Oliveira to vacate his title.

The title fight is still on, but now with uneven rewards. The Highlight can still win the title by beating Do Bronx, but the same rule doesn’t apply for the Brazilian fighter, as he’s now unable to regain his belt even with a win.

The betting market quickly reacted to the change of events. DraftKings shortened Oliveira’s odds from -180 before the first weigh-in to -160 right after the second weigh-in. The former champ’s odds are now -140 as of Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, Gaethje’s odds have improved from +155 to +120 on DraftKings.

The movement in prices is caused by the fact that Oliveira now doesn’t have the same incentive to win anymore. He’s already been stripped of his belt with no possibility of regaining it back on Saturday, so he’s now entering the one-sided title fight with less drive.

Rose Namajunas defends her Strawweight belt against Carla Esparza in the co-main event. Odds on the favorite have shortened in this one, too, as Thug Rose has been bet up past -200 on Fanduel.

Prelims at the Footprint Center in Phoenix start at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the main card at 10 p.m. ET. You can watch UFC 274 on ESPN+ PPV.

UFC 274 Odds, Props & Betting Analysis

Gaethje vs. Oliveira Props

Here is a taste of the props offered around the betting market for the UFC 274 main event. Peruse your sportsbook apps for plenty more.

Method of Victory (FanDuel)
Oliveira by submission +160
Oliveira by KO/TKO +700
Oliveria by points +600
Gaethje by submission +3400
Gaethje by KO/TKO +155
Gaethje by points +1000

Total Rounds (FanDuel)
2.5 (ov +130, un -166)

Alternate Total Rounds (DraftKings)
0.5 (ov -1100, un +550)
2.5 (ov +110, un -145)
3.5 (ov +180, un -250)
4.5 (ov +250, un -360)

Will Fight Go the Distance (PointsBet)
Yes +350
No -556

How Oliveira Got To UFC 274

Oliveira traveled along one of the most unforeseeable journeys en route to a title. After starting his UFC career at a mediocre 10-8 with one no contest, which included four losses over a six-fight stretch, Oliveira then looked himself in the mirror, built momentum, and has never looked back. He has since been riding a 10-fight win streak (only one by decision), including wins over Kevin Lee, Tony Ferguson, Michael Chandler, and Dustin Poirier.

But 2021 was his most prominent year. He TKO’d Chandler shortly into the second round in UFC 262 to claim the lightweight title, then defended his title against Poirier by third-round submission in UFC 269.

It took Oliveira a record 28 UFC fights before becoming champion. He is now 32-8 in his MMA career, including nine wins by KO/TKO, 20 by submission, and three by decision. His eight losses are made up of four KOs/TKOs, three submissions, and one decision.

Fighting so long and hard to earn his first and only title, and then losing it on the scale, must obviously be frustrating and disappointing to Oliveira. We’ll find out Saturday night if those emotions will help or hurt his chances in the octagon.

How Gaethje Got To Phoenix

Gaethje is coming into this match with redemption all over his mind.

After winning back-to-back bouts against UFC’s all-time leader in wins Donald Cerrone and former interim UFC lightweight champion Tony Ferguson, Gaethje was one win away from becoming champion for the first time in his UFC career. He ultimately lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov from a triangle choke early in the second round of UFC 254.

Gaethje had to then reclimb the mountain to title contention. In one of the most brutal fights that Yahoo Sports chose as its 2021 Fight of the Year, Gaethje earned a unanimous decision win over Chandler in a 15-minute bloodbath at UFC 268.

He now has a second shot at the belt, this time against Oliveira.

Gaethje’s MMA career has been successful, almost entirely thanks to his knockout ability. His record is 23-3, with 19 of those wins ending by KO/TKO. He has won by submission just once, all the way back in 2012. He has three wins decided by the refs. His three losses came from two KOs/TKOs and one submission.

Do Bronx vs. The Highlight Showcases UFC’s Most Competitive Division

Oliveria-Gaethje is more than just the clash of two polar opposite fighting styles: grappling versus striking. It will also show fans how stacked the 155-pound division is. Even with Khabib Nurmagomedov retired and Conor McGregor out of sight, out of mind, 155 is still the deepest and most competitive division in the UFC, and we get to see two of the division’s top-ranked fighters go toe to toe.

In-The-Octagon Preview

This fight will likely contain too much aggressiveness and explosiveness for it to go the distance, and the props are priced accordingly.

Gaethje’s sole submission loss came against one of the greatest wrestlers of all time in Nurmagomedov. It will be interesting to see if Gaethje has similar trouble against arguably the greatest submission and Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist of all time in Oliveira, who holds the record for the most submission wins in UFC history (15).

Gaethje is the hardest-hitting fighter in the division, which may concern Oliveira, as “do Bronx” has shown to have a weak chin early in fights. However, Oliveira is good at prevailing, and with two quality fighters facing off in the octagon, the tight pricing by oddsmakers is understandable.

Co-Main Event: Odds Move Toward Namajunas Over Esparza

Seven Years Of Bad Blood

Over seven years ago, Rose Namajunas and Carla Esparza fought in the Ultimate Fighter 20 finale, with Esparza coming out on top using a rear-naked choke in the third round. Seven years later, the two fighters have had different stories to tell.

Thug Rose is a two-time, and current, UFC strawweight champion. “Cookie Monster” Esparza was the inaugural UFC strawweight champion back in 2014 and brings along a five-fight win streak with her to Thug Rose.

Earlier pricing between -170 and -190 is long gone on Thug Rose. As of this update, bettors can’t get anything cheaper than -210.

Namajunas vs. Esparza Props

Just a few of the many props available on the UFC 274 co-main event:

Method of Victory (FanDuel)
Namajunas by Points +160
Namajunas by KO/TKO +380
Namajunas by Submission +500
Esparza by Points +280
Esparza by KO/TKO +950
Esparza by Submission +500

Total Rounds (DraftKings)
4.5 (ov -185, un +150)

Will Fight Go the Distance (PointsBet)
Yes -186
No +136

Michael Chandler Sizeable Favorite Over Tony Ferguson

Here’s another fight for which early action increased the price on the favorite, albeit slightly this time, with Michael Chandler bet from -350 to as high as -400.

Poor Form Ahead Of Phoenix

Both Chandler and Ferguson are looking to put an end to their respective losing streaks (Chandler two, Ferguson three). A win by either fighter here would help build momentum towards another shot at the lightweight title.