UFC 286 Odds, Props, Predictions: Edwards vs. Usman Trilogy for Welterweight Title in London

UFC 286 will see another trilogy in combat sports history and it’s only just days away.

Trilogies have been an integral part of combat sports for decades. Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier, Georges St. Pierre and Matt Hughes, Daniel Cormier and Stipe Miocic, and even Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier.

And now, we will have Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman, legacies forever tied together due to their own trilogy.

The two welterweights are set to meet for a third time in Edwards’ backyard at the O2 Arena in London this Saturday with the series tied 1-1.

Check out our UFC 286 odds, props, and predictions.

UFC 286 Main Event Odds: Edwards vs. Usman III 

The former champion Usman is the favorite in most sportsbooks at around -245, making current champion Edwards the underdog at around +205.

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman III Betting Preview

Edwards Aims to Defend New Belt on Home Turf

It was a long road to the top for the current welterweight champion that ended in the head kick heard around the world. 

Leon Edwards’ (20-3 MMA, 12-2 UFC) last loss was actually to Usman back in 2015.

Since then, he’s strung together a 10-fight win streak, with the most recent being the brutal KO win over Usman last August at UFC 278 in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Prior to winning the belt, the last few years were a little rough for Edwards. After a couple of big wins over Gunnar Nelson and Rafael Dos Anjos in 2019, Edwards was put on ice in 2020. He was supposed to face Khamzat Chimaev at one point, but the fighter retired in 2020 after getting COVID-19 before coming back later. 

Then it seemed like matchmakers just forgot to line something up for Edwards for the rest of the year.

In early 2021, Edwards faced top welterweight Belal Muhammad, but that bout ended in a no-contest after Edwards accidentally scraped Muhammad’s eye with his finger.

Later, matchmakers seemed to try and make it up to Edwards by giving him a fight against the legendary Nate Diaz. Edwards completely dominated all five rounds. However, he did get rocked by a Diaz punch at the very end. MMA fans tend to remember that the most.

Fast forward over a year later and Edwards finally got his deserved title shot. A fight in which he was losing until he threw a head kick in the final minute, catching Usman on the temple and knocking him out cold. 

Edwards needs to be more well-rounded this time. His striking and footwork match Usman’s and that will not be a problem for him. However, he will need better wrestling defense and transition work if he’s going to keep up with Usman’s abilities on the ground. 

Usman Looks to Restore His Order to Welterweight Division

Until Aug. 20, 2022 in the final minute of his five round bout against Edwards, Kamaru Usman (20-2 MMA, 15-1 UFC) was looking unbeatable. He hadn’t lost in the UFC until he ducked right into the left foot of Edwards.

His almost record-breaking run included wins over Edwards, Colby Covington, Jorge Masvidal, Gilbert Burns, Dos Anjos, Demian Maia, Tyron Woodley, and Sean Strickland.

But he’s looking to get back on track and pick up where he left off. The Nigerian Nightmare was handily winning against Edwards, outwrestling him, picking him apart in the clinch, and his cardio was more on point in high-altitude Utah. 

He was going to beat Edwards once again after winning by unanimous decision over him back in 2015, which was only Usman’s second UFC bout. But that sneaky head kick changed potential UFC history and prevented Usman from tying Anderson Silva’s win streak record of 16.

That door is closed unless the 35-year-old has 16 fights left in him. However, Usman could string together another few title defenses if he gets the belt back in London. He looked as well-rounded and solid as ever in the last fight and showed no signs he was slowing down.

Regardless of the outcome, this is an intriguing matchup for the third time around.

UFC 286 Props

Method of Victory

Edwards by KO/TKO: +500 (FanDuel)

Edwards by submission: +2000 (FanDuel)

Edwards by decision: +550 (DraftKings)

Usman by KO/TKO: +350 (DraftKings)

Usman by submission: +1500 (FanDuel)

Usman by decision: +115 (FanDuel)

Total Rounds

4.5 (Over -190, Under +155 at DraftKings)

Alternate Total Rounds (DraftKings)

Over 0.5 (-10000), Under 0.5 (+1200)

Over 1.5 (-700), Under 1.5 (+425)

Over 2.5 (-370), Under 2.5 (+255)

Over 3.5 (-250), Under 3.5 (+180)

Will Fight Go The Distance?

Yes: -156 (FanDuel)

No: +130 (DraftKings)

How Fight Will End

Submission: +1000 (FanDuel)

KO/TKO: +180 (DraftKings)

Decision: -170 (FanDuel)

UFC 286 Main Card Odds (DraftKings)

Here is your main card lineup for UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3, along with each fighter’s moneyline odds.

Welterweight Championship: Leon Edwards (+205) vs. Kamaru Usman (-245)

Lightweight Bout: Justin Gaethje (+190) vs. Rafael Fiziev (-225)

Welterweight Bout: Gunnar Nelson (-350) vs. Bryan Barberena (+290)

Women’s Flyweight Bout: Jennifer Maia (+145) vs. Casey O’Neill (-170)

Middleweight Bout: Marvin Vettori (-265) vs. Roman Dolidze (+225)

UFC 286 Prelim Card Odds

Featherweight Bout: Jack Shore (-500) vs. Makwan Amirkhani (+400)

Lightweight Bout: Chris Duncan (-115) vs. Omar Morales (-105)

Flyweight Bout: Muhammad Mokaev (-800) vs. Jafel Filho (+575)

Featherweight Bout: Lerone Murphy (-175) vs. Gabriel Santos (+150)

Middleweight Bout: Christian Duncan (-210) vs. Dusko Todorovic (+180)

Flyweight Bout: Jake Hadley (-380) vs. Malcolm Gordon (+310)

Women’s Flyweight Bout: Joanne Wood (-180) vs. Luana Carolina (+155)

Lightweight Bout: Jai Herbert (+165) vs. Ludovit Klein (-195)

Women’s Flyweight Bout: Juliana Miller (-435) vs. Veronica Macedo (+350)

UFC 286 Predictions

Edwards vs. Usman Under 4.5 rounds: +155 (DraftKings)

Rafael Fiziev to win by KO/TKO: +150 (DraftKings)

Roman Dolidze moneyline: +225 (DraftKings)

Moneyline parlay of Juliana Miller, Jake Hadley, Christian Duncan, Muhammad Mokaev: +157 (DraftKings)

UFC 286 Event Info

Location: O2 Arena, London, England

Date: Saturday, March 18, 2023

Start Time: Early prelims at 1 p.m. ET, Main at 5 p.m. ET

Where to Watch: ESPN + PPV