With football season coming to a close, the UFC returns for the next eight weeks consecutively, including two PPV events. With that, I am breaking down UFC Vegas 47 odds and giving betting picks for Saturday’s card on ESPN. Below are three fights I am targeting, with three of my four bets offered at plus-money.
Even during UFC fights, be sure to follow the advice of Furio from The Sopranos and …. “Bet with your head, not over it.”
UFC · Sat (2/5) @ 7:00 pm ET
|UFC APEX Center, Las Vegas, NV|
UFC Vegas 47 Odds and Picks
Jack Hermansson (+175) vs. Sean Strickland (-210)
The Main Event of Saturday’s card pits two middleweights against each other. Sean Strickland is a character, to say the least, constantly posting bizarre videos and pictures on his Instagram account. From a fighting standpoint, Strickland is a rightful favorite this weekend at -210 and an argument could be made he should be an even bigger favorite than that. He will easily dominate striking exchanges.
His opponent hails from the United Kingdom and is a well-known British wrestler. Hermansson has multiple takedowns in three of his last five fights (three wins). The main point here is Hermansson will win this fight only if he can land a healthy amount of takedowns.
Where this fight gets difficult for Hermansson is when we dive into Strickland’s takedown defense. Strickland has not been taken down by an opponent since 2017, when current champion Kamaru Usman landed two takedowns and beat Strickland only by decision!
Since then, Strickland has had a 100% takedown defense with opponents shooting 0-for-13 at getting him to the mat. Hermansson could get him to the ground, but Strickland being taken down only by Usman says a lot about his defense.
Back Strickland’s moneyline to build parlays and his decision prop at +175.
UFC Vegas 47 Picks: Strickland ML -210 (DraftKings) | Strickland wins by decision +175
Nick Maximov (+170) vs. Punahele Soriano (-200)
In the co-main event for UFC Vegas 47, we see a familiar face in Punahele Soriano. Soriano opened his UFC career with three impressive wins, two of which were first-round knockouts. His progress was halted by Brendan Allen, who beat him by decision unanimously.
His opponent is mostly unknown to UFC fans, but it is entirely possible that ends this weekend. Nick Maximov is just 25 years old and is the protege of the Diaz brothers and the Nick Diaz Fight Academy. Maximov profiles as an excellent wrestler and can get a few submissions, too.
Soriano has a 100% takedown defense, per UFCStats, so at a glance, this appears to be a good matchup for him. However, Soriano has defended only one takedown in his short UFC career, so we don’t know how great that takedown defense really is.
Soriano will come out hot in the first round looking for the early finish. He could get it. But if he does not get Maximov out of there early, Soriano will have his cardio tested against a serious wrestler like Maximov.
Soriano is not worth backing as a -200 favorite. I’d prefer to bet Maximov live after Round 1 when the price is close to +400 for Soriano. Pre-fight, I expect Maximov to win by submission in Round 3 or by decision. This prop should come in around +280 or better.
UFC Vegas 47 Picks: Maximov live after Round 1 | Maximov wins in Round 3 or decision +280 or better (Caesars)
Prelim: Steven Peterson (+260) vs. Julian Erosa (-350)
On the prelims on ESPN+, we have some familiar faces with Steven Peterson and Julian Erosa facing off.
Here’s a stat for you: Julian Erosa has not been a betting favorite since UFC 196 on March 5, 2016 (nine fights), per BestFightOdds. That card was famously headlined by the first Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz fight.
Going from an underdog in nine straight fights to a -350 favorite is bizarre, to say the least. Moreover, Steven Peterson is a solid veteran who has never been submitted in 28 fights and finished only once (in 2013). Erosa prefers to submit his opponents, as he has 12 times in his career. There is some concern about Erosa’s striking durability with five losses coming by KO/TKO.
With a tough-as-nails fighter like Peterson across from Erosa, I will back the big underdog, who should prove to be a difficult test for Erosa.
UFC Vegas 47 Picks: Steven Peterson ML +260 (BetMGM)
UFC Vegas 47 Props
Strickland wins by decision +195 boosted to +250 (FanDuel)
Jack Hermansson has strong leg kicks, which is a worry for Sean Strickland, who was in a bad car accident a few years back, resulting in leg surgery.
Still, Strickland has looked excellent in his last few fights and has a high volume of strikes. Hermansson will need multiple takedowns to win this fight, as his striking is significantly behind Strickland’s. Take advantage of this amazing FanDuel odds boost. Max bet $50.
Steve Peterson Wins in Round 3 +2500 (PointsBet)
Peterson missed weight Friday, so this is one to monitor as the fight gets closer. However, Peterson is as durable as they come and has never been finished other than a flash KO in 2013.
Erosa is far from a knockout artist and has been KO’d five times. At 25-to-1 odds, you can do worse than this prop.
Dawodu/Trizano – Fight To Be Won By Split or Majority Decision +400 (DraftKings)
Mike Trizano and Hakeem Dawodu face off in the prelims. This prop is available on DraftKings only and is interesting at +400. Split decisions aren’t the most common outcomes in the UFC.
However, three of Dawodu’s last five fights have ended in a split decision, and two of Trizano’s four UFC fights have ended that way as well. This does not include a unanimous decision win over Ludovit Klein, which easily could have been a split decision. Both of these fighters are low-volume fighters who don’t take enough control in the octagon.