UFC fights are back again for the third consecutive weekend, part of an incredible eight-straight weeks with mixed martial arts at the highest level. Saturday’s card isn’t what one might consider “marquee”, but there is still plenty to look at and (most importantly) bet on. UFC Vegas 49 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook have Islam Makhachev as a massive -900 favorite over Bobby Green.
UFC · Sat (2/26) @ 10:00 pm ET
|UFC APEX Center, Las Vegas, NV|
UFC Vegas 49 Odds And Picks
Bobby Green (+600) vs. Islam Makhachev (-900)
On less than two weeks’ notice, Bobby Green jumps in to face Islam Makhachev at a catchweight of 160 lbs. Makhachev was originally expected to square off against Beneil Dariush, but the fight had to be scrapped due to an injury.
Green is your prototypical tough guy. He has solid boxing, including an effective lead jab that damages opponents during standing exchanges. His takedown defense has a lot to be desired, though, and that’s where Makhachev absolutely thrives.
Makhachev (21-1) was flash knocked out once in his career, against Adriano Martins. That has not come close to happening again in his 11 UFC fights. As a prohibitive favorites, Makhachev should dominate this matchup against Green.
Back Makhachev here or don’t bet it at all. Green is tough, but tough does not beat grappling.
The only angle I have on this fight is to bet on Makhachev to “play with his food”, so to speak, and maybe strike with Green early. Makhachev should be able to get a submission win whenever he wants, so I’m looking at Makhachev to win in round 2 at plus-money odds or the “round 1 or 2” prop on FanDuel.
UFC Vegas 49 Pick: Makhachev wins by submission in round 1 or 2 +230 (FanDuel)
Terrance McKinney (+100) vs. Fares Ziam (-120)
In the prelims, Terrance McKinney faces Fares Ziam.
McKinney has had a bizarre career so far, featuring seven straight wins in the first round. When he filled in as a replacement fighter against Matt Frevola, he knocked out his opponent in just seven seconds (third fastest KO in UFC history). McKinney is a bonafide finisher with some pretty serious power in his hands. He’s also not a bad grappler, so there isn’t much of a route to get out-grappled for 15 minutes.
Overall, backing McKinney as a short underdog is a good wagering opportunity. Oddsmakers were mostly at a loss on this fight, opening -110 both ways. I’ll back McKinney at even-money.
UFC Vegas 49 Pick: McKinney +110 (BetMGM)
Hannah Goldy (+155) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (-180)
Another prelim bout for us to sift through this weekend is in the women’s strawweight division. Hannah “24K” Goldy looks for her second consecutive win . When betting UFC fights, I always like to see where the odds open as it shows where oddsmakers think this fight should be. Initially, this fight opened up at Goldy +105 vs. Frey at -125. I am not sure that Goldy shouldn’t have opened as a favorite. For starters, she’s in incredible shape:
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She is too big of an underdog in a fight where she might be superior in all aspects. Back Goldy as one of the better bets of the weekend.
UFC Vegas 49 Pick: Hannah Goldy ML +155 (DraftKings)
UFC Vegas 49 Parlay And Props
UFC Vegas 49 Parlay +413: Ignacio Bahamondes -210 + Altamirano/Hernandez GTD -150 + Brahimaj/Gillmore Fight Starts Round 2 -225 + Arman Tsarukyan -225 FanDuel Sportsbook
All favorites here. Be advised that FanDuel does have parlay insurance for your 4+ leg parlay. If one leg loses, you are refunded your bet up to $25. For reference, GTD means “Goes The Distance”, meaning the fight goes to a decision.
Ignacio Bahamondes Wins by KO/TKO +200 (DraftKings)
Bahamondes stands 6-foot-3 but just 155 lbs. It wouldn’t shock me to see him miss weight, but my care level for that is minimal. He’s an excellent striker and hits like a Mack Truck. Check out this KO win over Roosevelt Roberts that shocked the MMA world last year. Bahamondes is just 24-years old.
Wellington Turman Wins by KO/TKO in round 1 +900 (PointsBet)
This weekend’s co-main event features Wellington Turman and Misha Cirkunov. Cirkunov is an excellent grappler but can’t strike much at all. If Turman does not get the KO early, look to bet Cirkunov live, as he’ll try to grapple with and submit Turman. This one is not going the distance.