UFC Vegas 57 Odds, Props, Picks: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Headlines Prodigy-Filled Card

This June has been an exciting time for UFC fanatics, but it’s not over yet, as business shifts to Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 57 this Saturday. This 10-fight lineup houses some of the most promising young stars in the sport. To keep bettors glued to the action, we’re breaking down odds and props across the betting market.

The card’s headliner features a lightweight bout between Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot, two emerging UFC stars who look to climb up the steep 155-pound division.

Tsarukyan has the oddsmakers’ respect heading into Saturday’s event at UFC Apex – priced between -286 and -310 as of Thursday morning. Gamrot not only has to subdue his opponent but must do so as a +225 to +250 underdog on the moneyline.

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Fight night starts with the prelims at 7 p.m. ET and the main card at 10 p.m. ET. You can witness the action on ESPN+.

UFC Fight Night: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mateusz Gamrot Odds

Tsarukyan, Gamrot Face Off In Career-Defining Bout

Tsarukyan and Gamrot each lost their UFC debut by decision, but since then have strung together impressive win streaks, ultimately landing each of them their first UFC main event bout. Ranked 11th and 12th in the lightweight division, respectively, the winner of this fight will likely advance into the Top 10 and will be one fight closer to title contention.

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Tsarukyan’s Recent Form & Fighting Style

Tsarukyan (18-2 MMA, 5-1 UFC) has rebounded mightily after falling short in his debut, winning five-straight fights, which included back-to-back TKOs over Christos Giagos and Joel Alvarez. 

Although just 25 years old, the Armenian-Russian has already established himself as one of the lightweight division’s most proficient strikers, out-striking his last five opponents by a 58-8 overall margin. But while his striking offense is elite, he tends to take in a lot of shots as well.

Striking has been Tsarukyan’s best weapon (seven KO/TKOs), but the contender also keeps his high-level wrestling skills in his back pocket (five submission finishes). However, he hasn’t claimed a victory by submission in his last 11 fights, his last one coming nearly five years ago. Keep this in mind when looking at his props prices.

Gamrot’s Recent Form & Fighting Style

Like Tsarukyan, Gamrot (20-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC) has recovered well from his split decision loss in his promotional debut, finishing Scott Holtzman, Jeremy Stephens, and Diego Ferreira in convincing fashion.

“Gamer” has shown throughout his career that he can conquer his opponent in more ways than one. He trained as a freestyle wrestler at a young age, but quickly developed into an all-around technical fighter with a BJJ black belt, which helped him become the KSW double champ at lightweight and featherweight.

The 31-year-old Polish fighter’s 20 career wins can be broken down into seven KO/TKOs, five submissions, and eight decisions.

In-The-Octagon Preview

Tsarukyan and Gamrot both possess high levels of striking, grappling, and endurance, which will all be on full display come Saturday. Expect a ton of strikes thrown and landed in the early rounds, mostly by the favorite, but both fighters will look to put the fight away throughout the match.

Gamrot’s success as KSW champion shows he can perform well in championship rounds, but endurance does not figure to be a major factor between these lightweights, considering Tsarukyan has done an excellent job at controlling his cardio and enduring high-minute bouts.

Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Props

Method of Victory
Tsarukyan by submission +460 (FanDuel)
Tsarukyan by KO/TKO/DQ +290 (FanDuel)
Tsarukyan by decision +160 (FanDuel)
Gamrot by submission +1400 (DraftKings)
Gamrot by KO/TKO/DQ +700 (DraftKings)
Gamrot by decision +550 (DraftKings)

Total Rounds
4.5 (ov -112 (Unibet), un -105 (DraftKings))

Alternate Total Rounds
0.5 (ov -3000 (DraftKings), un +900 (DraftKings))
1.5 (ov -300 (BetMGM), un +275 (DraftKings))
2.5 (ov -175 (BetMGM), un +165 (DraftKings))
3.5 (ov -112 (BetRivers), un +110 (DraftKings))

Note: 2:30 min mark of each round indicates the ‘half-round’ for under/over bets. For example, if you bet on ‘Over’ 1.5 rounds, the fight would have to exceed the 2:30 min mark of the second round for you to win.

Will Fight Go the Distance
Yes +100 (BetRivers)
No -120 (FanDuel)

UFC Vegas 57 Betting Picks

Moneyline: Tsarukyan (-286, BetRivers)

The fight can go many different directions, but I’m giving Tsarukyan enough of an edge to lay the odds. He’s come out victorious against many talented wrestlers before Gamrot, so ground fighting shouldn’t be an issue. He also has a clear advantage in the striking department, which bodes well for him because both competitors will be spending a lot of time on their feet.

Total Rounds: Over 4.5 (-112, Unibet)

While both fighters will try for the finish several times, the matchup will more so resemble a chess game with wrestling as the focal point. Wrestling stretches fights out longer and will set the bout up for a decision.

Best Bet: Tsarukyan By Decision (+160, FanDuel)

Tsarukyan was one judge away from edging Islam Makhachev in 2019, who is arguably the best lightweight wrestler in the sport. Gamrot doesn’t come close to Makhachev in the art of wrestling, so Tsarukyan should have no difficulty combatting Gamrot’s predominant weapon for an entire 25 minutes.

Laying nearly 3-to-1 odds on the favorite to win outright is a hard pill to swallow, considering how unpredictable this fight can go, so I’m eying him to win with the help of the judges for the odds boost.

Co-Main Event: Neil Magny vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov Odds

Veteran Neil “Haitian Sensation” Magny and streaking fighter Shavkat “Nomad” Rakhmonov square off in a battle between ranked welterweights. Magny faces the longest odds of his entire 26-fight UFC career – priced between +300 and +350. Meanwhile, Rakhmonov lays the shortest odds of his three-fight UFC career – priced between -390 and -455.

Magny Chases History, While Rakhmonov Looks To Continue Hot Streak

A lot is riding for each fighter on Saturday. The 34-year-old American (26-8 MMA, 19-7 UFC) has a chance to break Georges St-Pierre’s record for the most wins in UFC welterweight history. He has won two-straight bouts – and five of his last six – to take over the 10th spot in the 170-pound ranks.

As for Rakhmonov (15-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC), he has steamrolled over his competition, finishing every fight in his past to become the 15th-ranked welterweight. He now gets the opportunity to face his first ranked opponent in Magny, and beating the “Haitian Sensation” would be proof that he’s in fact the real deal.

Polar Opposite Strategies Collide

Magny has made a career out of dragging fights out and letting the scorecards do the talking (16 decision wins to just 10 by stoppage), and his last six fights have gone the distance. His strategy against the well-favored Kazakh is simple: fight smart and fight slow. The vet tends to give up the first round, but if he can survive the first five minutes and maybe even push the fight to the third round or to the scorecards, then he’ll face his best shot at beating one of the most dominant rising prospects.

Meanwhile, Rakhmonov looks to get the job done quickly, as seen by his 100% finishing rate. This approach has been even more glaring and effective as of late, as he hasn’t let any of his last six fights reach the third round. He will throw as many spinning kicks as he can to call it an early night.

Other Fights Around The Card

The card offers a wide range of lines, giving bettors the opportunity to be as conservative and daring as they want. Those chasing a large money sack would enjoy Nate Maness (+650 at Caesars Sportsbook) against Umar Nurmagomedov in a bantamweight bout.

If you’re interested in even-money pick’em bouts, then you should turn to Josh Parisian (-105) vs. Alan Baudot (-115), Carlos Ulberg (+100) vs. Tafon Nchukwi (-120), and JP Buys (-115) vs. Cody Durden (-105) – odds courtesy of DraftKings.

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