UFC Vegas 61 Odds & Props: Dern vs. Yan Headlines at the Apex

There are a few more weeks until one of the most anticipated MMA lineups — UFC 280 — gets settled. But until then, fans and bettors can keep busy with a couple of Fight Night events, starting with UFC Vegas 61 this Saturday, Oct. 1. 

The promotion pairs together two ranked strawweights to star in the main event. No. 5 Mackenzie Dern — priced between –225 and –250 on the moneyline — and No. 6 Yan “Fury” Xiaonan — priced between +180 and +200 — face off to see who will be the next 115-pound title challenger. Let’s take a look at UFC Vegas 61 odds and props for this event.

UFC Fight Night 211 Main Event Odds: Dern vs. Yan

Bettors looking to side with Dern can find odds as long as –225 at DraftKings. Those tailing the underdog can grab her at +200 at Caesars.

Fighting action commences with the prelims at 4:00 p.m. ET and then the main card is set to begin at 7:00 p.m. ET. Viewers can watch the whole card on ESPN+.

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Mackenzie Dern Profile

Dern (12-2 MMA, 7-2 UFC) is coming off a Fight of the Night victory over No. 7 Tecia Torres, giving her five wins in her last six bouts. A former world No. 1 ranked IBJJF competitor and ADCC World Champion, Dern’s Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree is one of the most impressive in the UFC. She has been in 101 grappling matches (75-25-1), which has translated really well within the promotion to the tune of seven wins by submission.

The 29-year-old American’s experience in BJJ may be unmatched, but she does possess major weaknesses in other areas. Her striking skills are practically nonexistent. She has zero wins by knockout and tends to absorb more strikes than she delivers. Her wrestling leaves a lot to be desired, landing just 0.46 takedowns per 15 minutes at 9% accuracy.

As flawed as Dern is outside of grappling, she has impressively never been finished in her MMA career. Her two losses came at the hands of the judges.

Yan Xiaonan Profile

Yan’s (15-3 MMA, 6-2 UFC) recent form tells a different story than Dern’s. After winning her first six bouts in the UFC, the promotion’s first Chinese female fighter rides into Saturday after losing her past two matches. The first loss was a second-round knockout to current strawweight champion Carla Esparza, and the latest one was a split decision against No. 3 Marina Rodriguez.

Fury has struggled mightily with adjusting to tougher competition throughout her career. After going 8-1 (NC) with seven wins by knockout under various inferior promotions, she went through all of her eight UFC bouts without a single knockout — her calling card. And when she was tasked with facing top-flight opponents, she crumbled.

Regardless of her recent struggles, the 33-year-old is a polished striker with seven career knockouts. She may not have the same punching power that helped her get promoted to the UFC, but she’s still capable of dishing out dozens of significant strikes over the course of five rounds.

UFC on ESPN+ 69: Dern vs. Yan Props

Bettors can begin wagering on props for the event’s headliner. Here are the best prop lines from various top sportsbooks:

Method of Victory (DraftKings)
Dern by submission: –109 (PointsBet)
Dern by KO/TKO/DQ: +1600 (BetRivers)
Dern by decision: +425 (PointsBet)
Yan by submission: +2800 (DraftKings)
Yan by KO/TKO/DQ: +800 (BetRivers)
Yan by decision: +380 (FanDuel)

Total Rounds (DraftKings)
2.5 (Over –125, Under +110)

Note: 2:30 minute mark of each round indicates the ‘half-round’ for under/over bets. For example, if you bet on Over 2.5 rounds, the fight would have to exceed the 2:30 minute mark of the third round for you to win.

Alternate Total Rounds
0.5 (O –1400, DraftKings; U +650, DraftKings)
1.5 (O –225, BetMGM; U +180, DraftKings)
3.5 (O +110, BetMGM; U –125, DraftKings)
4.5 (O +142, FanDuel; U –165, DraftKings)

Will Fight Go the Distance?
Yes (+168, FanDuel)
No (–190, DraftKings)

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UFC Vegas 61 Main Card Odds

Here’s the main card lineup for UFC Vegas 61, along with each fighter’s corresponding moneyline odds at BetMGM (as of Wednesday morning, Sept. 28):

— Women’s Strawweight Bout: Mackenzie Dern (–250) vs. Yan Xiaonan (+195)
— Welterweight Bout: Randy Brown (–300) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (+250)
— Bantamweight Bout: Raoni Barcelos (–250) vs. Trevin Jones (+190)
— Featherweight Bout: Sodiq Yusuff (–1100) vs. Don Shainis (+675)
— Catchweight Bout: John Castaneda (–190) vs. Daniel Santos (+155)

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