We take a thumbnail glance at several games in Week 11 of the NCAAF season that might not register on the national landscape but deserve some money-making attention.
Southern Miss at UTSA
Our Pick: UTSA -33 (-110)
The masses have jumped on the 9-0 UTSA bandwagon, moving this number from 29 to 33. It’s a national-best 8-1 against the spread, tied with Syracuse—UTSA covers by an average of 10.2 points, the Orange by eight.
The movement might be justified, since UTSA sports a gaudy 1.081 points-per-play rate—tops in the land—over its past three games. At home, its defensive rate is 0.160, third in the country between Michigan and Penn State.
At 10.3 points, the 1-8 Golden Eagles own the game’s worst offense, and they have a 22nd-worst road yield of 38.2 points.
We’re in a cozy place, since a wagering loss on UTSA would still leave us way ahead in this play. We’ve guaranteed a profit on its season. Newcomers, however, might be wise to risk a mere half-unit, since this is a prodigious line.
Looking for a more advantageous number on the favorite? The latest line update from DraftKings on Thursday afternoon offered UTSA at -32.5.
Western Kentucky at Rice Full Sportsbook Odds
NCAAF · Fri (12/16) @ 11:35am ET
| MIAO Miami (OH) | at | UAB UAB |
| Legion Field Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama | ||
Our Pick: Western Kentucky -17 (-110)
Bailey Zappe, the 6-foot-2, 215-pound quarterback who brought a wealth of talent with him from Houston Baptist to Bowling Green, Ky., is on top of college football with 3,688 passing yards and 37 touchdowns.
A fifth-year senior from Victoria, Texas, Zappe (pronounced ZAP-ee) directs an offense that averages 39.1 points, sixth in the country.
The Hilltoppers (5-5) are hitting their stride, too, with an average scoring margin of +24.7 points in their past three games, tied for fifth nationally with Alabama. Rice (3-6) is among the bottom 10 for the season, losing by an average of more than 20 points.
Georgia Southern at Texas State Full Sportsbook Odds
NCAAF · Fri (12/16) @ 11:35am ET
| MIAO Miami (OH) | at | UAB UAB |
| FAU Stadium, Baca Raton, FL | ||
Our Pick: Under 56½ (-110)
Two of the country’s sorriest offenses meet in this game. Somehow, our three models show 55, 53 and 46 total points being scored.
Judging by the past three games for each, neither one might reach double figures. Southern (2-7) has averaged 0.171 points per play over that span, and only five teams have been worse. The 3-6 Bobcats are a bottom-12 0.213.
This total was adjusted down at several books including both Caesars and PointsBet at -53.5
Louisiana at Troy Full Sportsbook Odds
NCAAF · Fri (12/16) @ 11:35am ET
| MIAO Miami (OH) | at | UAB UAB |
| Legion Field Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama | ||
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Our Pick: Over 49 (-110)
This is strictly a numbers play, as our three models show 49, 59 and 59 points being scored. The past seven between these two have averaged 58 total points.
Utah State At San Jose State Sportsbook Odds
NCAAF · Fri (12/16) @ 11:35am ET
| MIAO Miami (OH) | at | UAB UAB |
| Legion Field Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama | ||
Our Pick: Under 57½ (-110)
Our trust in Utah State’s offense is less than zero, since it scored only three points in racking up 443 total yards in that ugly 27-3 home loss to Boise State on Sept. 25. WynnBet was among the books offering a total of 57 for this contest as of Thursday.
The Spartans (5-5) expected much more after a 7-0 campaign delivered a bowl game to them a year ago. However, their sterling defense has impressed in their past two home games.
They allowed San Diego State only 240 total yards four weeks ago and they didn’t commit a single penalty two weeks ago in a 27-21 victory over Wyoming.
We expect San Jose State defensive end Viliamo “Junior” Feheko and middle linebacker Kyle Harmon to snuff the Aggies (7-2), who have averaged 16 points in their past three trips to San Jose.
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