Under-the-Radar College Football Picks, Week 10: ATS, Over/Under Plays To Consider

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We have a thumbnail glance at several games in week 10 of the NCAAF season that might not register on the national landscape but deserve some money-making attention.

UTSA At UTEP Sportsbook Odds


NCAAF · Sat (11/6) @ 10:25pm ET

Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX

Our Pick: Over 53 (-110)

This will not feature two ranked teams battling in a filled 100,000-seat cauldron. Still, it’s my Game of the Week because the seasons these two have had have been scintillating.

The No. 16 UTSA Roadrunners (8-0) sport the highest ranking in the program’s history. UTEP is 6-2, including 4-0 at home. They are a combined 13-3 against the spread.

Thankfully, ESPN2 will show UTSA quarterback Frank Harris, a junior from suburban San Antonio, dueling against UTEP’s Gavin Hardison, a junior from Hobbs, N.M. Two of our models show 57 and 64 points being scored. This will be very entertaining.

Marshall At Florida Atlantic Sportsbook Odds

MARS Marshall vs FAU Florida Atlantic Odds NCAAF Odds

NCAAF · Sat (11/6) @ 6:00pm ET

MARS Marshall at FAU Florida Atlantic
FAU Stadium, Baca Raton, FL

Our Pick: Marshall -1½ (-110)

The Thundering Herd (5-3) must be considered among the nation’s élite programs.

It is one of four programs with a top-23 scoring rate (0.486 points per play) and a top-10 stingy defense (0.253). Ohio State, Michigan State, and Cincinnati round out that quartet.

Here’s what’s troubling for Florida Atlantic (5-3), though. Over its past three games, the Marshall defense is operating at an even better rate, at 0.151 points per play. Only Georgia, at 0.134, has clamped down more on foes over that span.

And on the road, the Herd offense is most dynamic, at 0.549 points per play. Good luck, Atlantic.

Louisiana–Monroe At Texas State Sportsbook Odds

LAMO UL Monroe vs TXST Texas State Odds NCAAF Odds

NCAAF · Sat (11/6) @ 3:27pm ET

LAMO UL Monroe at TXST Texas State
Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos , TX

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Our Pick: Over 59½ (-110)

The Bobcats (2-6) and Warhawks (4-4) might leave burn marks on the FieldTurf Duraspine Pro surface of Bobcat Stadium.

ULM (4-4) has allowed an average of 43.3 points in its past four games. It’s allowed 41.9 points on the season, and only four defenses have allowed more. It yields 0.553 points per play, in the bottom eight of the nation.

Texas State has been allowing 34.3 points per game, No. 108 among the 130 Division-I programs. And in their past three home games, the Bobcats have averaged nearly 32 points. Both offenses will prosper against these poor defenses.

Utah State At New Mexico State Sportsbook Odds

USU Utah State vs NMXS New Mexico State Odds NCAAF Odds

NCAAF · Sat (11/6) @ 4:00pm ET

USU Utah State at NMXS New Mexico State
Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM

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Our Pick: Under 71 (-110)

Utah State (6-2) is the most fraudulent program in the country. Turning 443 yards of offense into only three points, in a home loss to Boise State on Sept. 25, ranks as the most embarrassing defeat by anyone this season.

New Mexico State (1-7) owns an atrocious offense, and only four defenses are worse than the 0.588 points per play it allows. But the Aggies’ offense can’t be trusted, and both teams rate high in penalties and giveaways.

Our three models have 53, 53, and 60 points being tallied in this slop-fest.

Liberty At Ole Miss Full Sportsbook Odds

LIBE Liberty vs OLEM Ole Miss Odds NCAAF Odds

NCAAF · Sat (11/6) @ 12:00pm ET

LIBE Liberty at OLEM Ole Miss
Vaught–Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS

Our Pick: Liberty +9½ (-110)

Even if quarterback Matt Corral plays for the 6-2 Rebels, he doesn’t figure to be 100 percent. He suffered an ankle tweak three weeks ago, but that tops a long list of bruises and dings.

Liberty junior and Auburn transfer Malik Willis is one of a dozen quarterbacks to throw for at least 20 touchdowns this season. In victories the past two weeks, he’s thrown for 524 yards, seven touchdowns, and no interceptions.

Because of Willis, the 7-2 Flames might win this one outright.

About the Author
Rob Miech

Rob Miech

Rob Miech is a writer and contributor for Gaming Today, covering soccer and producing sports betting features. He has written about college hoops for the Las Vegas Sun, CBS SportsLine and the Pasadena Star-News. He is the author of four books, including Sports Betting for Winners.

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