It’s always worth checking in with SuperBook VP of Risk Management Jeff Sherman in Las Vegas during golf’s major championship weeks.
As one of the sports betting industry’s top golf oddsmakers, Sherman hangs numbers at the SuperBook and sees first-hand how sharp bettors respond to his offerings.
Let’s get to this week’s US Open Betting Report to examine how sharps are playing the third major of the golf season.
Sharp Bettors Fade Two Top Players in Matchups
In a text to Gaming Today on Tuesday, and with odds current as of Wednesday, Sherman said his book has liabilities on Max Homa (+2500), Collin Morikawa (+3000), Brooks Koepka (+1200), Patrick Reed (+6000), Justin Rose (+5000), Jason Day (+4000), and Phil Mickelson (+15000).
Sharp action came in on two matchup bets involving high-profile players.
Brooks Koepka +130 vs. Rory McIlroy -150
Max Homa +135 vs. Matt Fitzpatrick -155
“Sharps are fading Koepka with McIlroy and fading Homa with Fitzpatrick,” Sherman said.
In terms of outrights, the SuperBook took sharp action on favorite Scottie Scheffler, whose odds tightened from +650 Tuesday to +600 Wednesday. Sharps also came in on Patrick Cantlay (+1600) and Xander Schauffele (+1600).
More US Open 2023: Live US Open Odds | US Open Expert Picks | Six US Open Prop Bets to Profit On | US Open First Round Odds
2023 US Open Futures Odds
Here’s a look at US Open futures odds at DraftKings (you may also select other top sports betting apps), and how they are fluctuating for top contenders heading into the tournament.
| TEAM | ODDS | PROBABILITY | CHANGE | |
| Scottie Scheffler | +800 | 11.11% | ||
| Jon Rahm | +900 | 10.00% | ||
| Rory McIlroy | +1000 | 9.09% | ||
| Brooks Koepka | +1200 | 7.69% | ||
| Patrick Cantlay | +1800 | 5.26% | ||
| Viktor Hovland | +1800 | 5.26% | ||
| Xander Schauffele | +1800 | 5.26% | ||
| Cameron Smith | +2200 | 4.35% | ||
| Collin Morikawa | +2200 | 4.35% | ||
| Rickie Fowler | +3500 | 2.78% |
Implied probabilities are calculated using odds offered by DraftKings.
Last Updated: 2023-09-27 00:00:00 PDT.
In Search of Value Down US Open Odds Board
Big-name players have scored victories in the first two major tournaments of 2023. Rahm won his first-ever Masters, and Koepka captured his third PGA Championship. Still, it behooves us to try and find some value for pre-tourney win bets.
For mid-range prices, Sherman noted that SuperBook bettors have been gravitating toward Day (+4000), Rose (+5000), Tommy Fleetwood (+4000), and Bryson DeChambeau (+4000).
Popular longshots at the SuperBook include Si Woo Kim (+6000), Sahith Theegala (+8000), and Denny McCarthy (+12500). McCarthy’s putting prowess and recent runner-up at The Memorial make him an intriguing selection.
It’s been a while since a big longshot won the US Open to provide huge paydays for backers. Per Sports Odds History, Lucas Glover cashed at +15000 odds in 2009. Angel Cabrera was also a bomb winner at +10000 odds in 2007.
In the last 10 US Opens, the winner’s price ranged from a low of +800 (Jordan Spieth in 2015) to a high of +6000 (Gary Woodland in 2019). Koepka won back-to-back US Opens in 2017 and 2018 at odds of +3000 and +2500, respectively.
Always shop around top sports betting apps for the best odds on your US Open bets. Futures odds, in particular, can fluctuate greatly as you move down the odds board. Case in point: Phil Mickelson is +25000 at DraftKings and +15000 at PointsBet as of this update.
That’s a lot of money to leave on the table if Mickelson somehow manages to reprise his role as a major winner during the PGA Championship just two years ago. Mickelson’s lone US Open win came back in 2013, but he finished T-2 at the Masters this year.
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