USA vs. Iran Prediction, Odds & Props: USMNT Favored in Must-Win World Cup Match

The USMNT takes on Iran in a massive do-or-die clash Tuesday to wrap up Group B play in the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar.  USA advance to the knockout rounds with a win, and a draw or a loss means elimination.

For arguably the most talented players the USA has ever fielded for a World Cup, Tuesday’s match is the biggest of their lives.

In Gaming Today’s breakdown of USA vs. Iran odds, props, and predictions, we examine whether the US can score enough to get all three points and move onto the round of 16.

Best USA vs. Iran Odds: Moneyline, Total for World Cup Clash

Here are betting lines from top US sportsbooks for USA-Iran. The odds are likely to change between now and kickoff, and it’s always advised to weigh the options at various sports betting apps to find the best bonuses and prices.

These odds reflect the prices for both sides on the three-way line, where a bet on either team is a loss in the event of a draw. DraftKings and FanDuel both price a draw at +310, while Caesars offers it at +290.

Moneyline

The USA vs. Iran odds list USA as the favorite at even-money, while Iran is not expected to win since a draw is all they need to go through. It’s tough to predict whether USA or Iran will get the crucial result they’re looking for. But it feels safe to assume this will be a close match and a stressful one for fans of both sides.

Total

The total in this match is 2.5 goals, but the Under is heavily favored at -180 on DraftKings, which has the Over at +145. While both USA and Iran have had more success preventing goals than creating them, Gregg Berhalter’s side should have a much more aggressive approach than usual, making the Over a tempting play.

USA vs. Iran: World Cup History

USA is back in the World Cup after missing the tournament in 2018. In both 2014 and 2010, the US was eliminated in the round of 16. In 2006, the USMNT failed to advance from group play, four years after the team was eliminated by Germany in the quarterfinals of the 2002 World Cup.

Iran is playing in the World Cup for the sixth time in its history. The team also qualified in 2018, 2014, 2006, 1998, and 1978. Iran failed to advance from group play the last four times it was in the World Cup.

These teams have met once at the World Cup, back in 1998. Iran won that group play match 2-1, but neither team advanced to knockout play at that World Cup.

USA Roster, Injuries, and Betting News

The USA is young but immensely talented, especially in the midfield and on the wings. As it showed last week against England, it can play with the best teams in the world, particularly in the midfield. That was seen as a strength of this team before the USA-England match, and everyone watching saw that Yunus Musah, Tyler Adams, and Weston McKennie can control a game against even top sides like England.

The problem for the USMNT is scoring goals, and the issue dates back to CONCACAF qualifying. It’s not as if USA are creating enough chances and just failing to finish, either – they have just two shots on goal in 180 minutes of play in Qatar, with just one goal. The best offensive teams generate a ton of shots, even on their bad days, and the attacking pieces for the US must find a way to threaten the net against Iran.

Roster

The US roster is led by Christian Pulisic, McKennie, Adams, and Brendon Aaronson, to name a few. Given the lack of offense through two matches, a big question is whether fans will see Aaronson or Gio Reyna in the starting lineup. Aaronson’s pressing could generate some easy scoring opportunities, and Reyna has as much pure talent as anyone on the roster, but Berhalter seems committed to starting Pulisic on the left and Tim Weah on the right, while playing one of this team’s unproven strikers – Jesus Ferreira, Haji Wright or Josh Sargent – up top.

Injuries

Injury-wise, USA appears to be in good shape after two tough matches. If there are going to be any key USA players missing, that’s more likely to be a result of fatigue than injuries, as most of Berhalter’s preferred XI played close to 90 minutes against both Wales and England.

Iran Roster, Injuries, and Betting News

Iran bounced back from an embarrassing 6-2 loss to England to start the tournament with an impressive 2-0 win over Wales to put themselves in a good position to advance.

Iran is a bit of an underrated — and unknown — opponent, for most soccer fans. This experienced team is better than the sum of its parts, though, as it showed in Asian qualifying and against Wales. Coming off a shutout of Gareth Bale and Co. – and having allowed just four goals in 10 qualifying matches – Iran are a difficult opponent for USA to break down.

Manager Carlos Queiroz has also managed the senior national teams of Portugal (2008-10), Colombia (2019-20), and Egypt (2021-22). He was rehired as manager of Iran in September, ahead of this year’s World Cup, after a lengthy stint managing the team from 2011-19. Those years included trips to the World Cup in 2014 and 2018, but Iran did not advance from group play either time.

Roster

Iran is led by 30-year-old Mehdi Taremi, who has been prolific in both domestic play and the Champions League for Porto this season. Taremi scored twice against England, but not until after his team was out of that match.

Taremi’s best-known teammates are Alireza Jahanbakhsh of Dutch Eredivisie side Feyenoord and Sardar Azmoun of Bundesliga side Bayer Leverkusen. Jahanbakhsh, the Iranian team captain will miss the USA game after picking up yellow cards against England and Wales.

Injuries

Azmoun is one of the top threats for Iran, but he is coming off a calf injury he suffered this fall – he started against Wales, but not against England.

Also read: Updated 2022 World Cup odds

USA vs. Iran Props

Below is a sampling of props on USA vs. Iran.

Anytime Goalscorer (FanDuel):

• Jesus Ferreira: +185
• Josh Sargent: +210
• Haji Wright: +220
• Jordan Morris, Tim Weah, Christian Pulisic: +280
• Mehdi Taremi: +300
• Sardar Azmoun: +330

Correct Score (DraftKings):

• USA 1-0: +500
• USA 2-0: +850
• USA 2-1: +900
• Iran 1-0: +850
• Iran 2-0: +2200
• Iran 2-1: +1400
• 0-0: +850
• 1-1: +550

Total Goal Props (DraftKings):

• Over 0.5 goals -1400, Under 0.5 goals: +750
• Over 1.5 goals -220, Under 1.5 goals: +175
• Over 2.5 goals +145, Under 2.5 goals: -180
• Over 3.5 goals +370, Under 3.5 goals: -525

USA vs. Iran Broadcast Info: Where to Watch

• Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2 p.m. ET
• Al Thumama Stadium
• FOX
• FoxSports.com
• Fox Sports App
• Peacock
• Telemundo

USA vs. Iran Prediction: USA 2, Iran 1

If USA can play that well against England, surely they can find a way to beat Iran, right? That’s the refrain throughout the US fanbase.

While I have my doubts, I’ve now convinced myself this team can get it done – I think. And only just barely. Iran having three points to just two for the USA in the table means they can sit back, if that’s how they choose to approach this match. USA have not been good enough against low blocks, and that’s probably understating their struggles. But in win-or-go-home circumstances like these, the approach should change, and I expect the USA to come out firing and find an early goal, possibly via heavy pressure creating an on-ball miscue by an Iran defender.

If it’s 0-0 at halftime or later, it will be hard not to panic as a US supporter. But I didn’t pick against the USA when they played England, so I certainly won’t do that this time.

Here are two game parlays on DraftKings worth checking out:

• USA win and Over 1.5 Goals: +175
• Halftime/ Full Time – USA/USA: +230