USA vs. Mexico Predictions, Odds, Props: USMNT Favored in CONCACAF Nations League Semifinal

USA have their biggest test since the 2022 World Cup on Thursday night at 10 p.m. Eastern, when they meet Mexico at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas in the semifinals of the CONCACAF Nations League.

Between the opponent, the presence of most of the top American players, and the much-anticipated USMNT debut of striker Folarin Balogun, this is as much of a must-see as the USMNT will play outside of World Cup competition.

In Gaming Today’s breakdown of USA vs. Mexico odds, props, and predictions, we ask whether new USMNT manager B.J. Callaghan can keep USA’s undefeated streak against Mexico alive. El Tri has not beaten the US since 2019, with the latter going 3-1-0 in the last four matchups between these teams.

The USMNT reached the semifinals of the CONCACAF Nations League with a blowout win over Grenada and a 1-0 victory against El Salvador in March. In Mexico’s March Nations League matches, they beat Suriname 2-0 and drew Jamaica to clinch a place in the semis.

The USA-Mexico winner will face the winner of Canada and Panama — who play at 7 p.m. on Thursday — in the CONCACAF Nations League Final on Sunday at 8:30 p.m.

Also read: 2026 World Cup odds

Betting Odds for Thursday’s USA vs. Mexico Match

Here are USA vs. Mexico betting lines available on top sports betting apps.

Both sides have new managers. Diego Cocca replaced Mexico’s 2022 World Cup manager, Tata Martino, in February. USA are led by interim coach B.J. Callaghan, who has stepped in since Gregg Berhalter’s replacement, Anthony Hudson, left the USSF to coach Qatari side Al Markhiya. Thursday night marks Callaghan’s debut as coach of the USMNT.

USA Roster, Injuries, and Betting News

USA are coming off the best 2022 World Cup of any CONCACAF side, as Christian Pulisic and Berhalter led the team to a second-place finish in a group featuring England, Wales, and Iran.

They bowed out with a loss to the Netherlands in the round of 16, but still enjoyed much more success in Qatar than either Mexico or Canada. The latter were outscored 7-2 in three losses to Morocco, Croatia, and Belgium. Mexico fared a bit better, going 1-1-1, but did not advance to knockout play.

USA’s CONCACAF Nations League roster does not include World Cup starters Tyler Adams or Tim Ream but features virtually every other elite American player, including Pulisic, Weston McKennnie, Yunus Musah, Tim Weah, and Giovanni Reyna.

At this point, all those players are known commodities on the pitch, but the 21-year-old Balogun will command more attention than any of his new teammates. The Arsenal forward, who spent the ’22-23 season on loan with Ligue 1 side Reims, was one of the top scorers in Ligue 1, with 21 goals in 37 matches in league play.

Regardless of their role, the USMNT debut of a player of Balogun’s stature — his Transfermarkt value is currently 25M euros — would dominate headlines.

But Balogun plays the least settled position in the USA XI (though Ricardo Pepi is coming off a solid season with Dutch club Groningen). That means that whether Balogun starts or plays as a sub on Thursday night, he’ll be easily the most scrutinized player for the USMNT.

Injuries

In addition to Adams and Ream, USA are without goalkeeper Zack Steffen, forward Daryl Dike, center back Cameron Carter-Vickers, and midfielder Malik Tillman.

Mexico Roster, Injuries, and Betting News

Mexico need to perform well in both the CONCACAF Nations League and the Gold Cup later this summer to convince their fans — and more importantly, the Mexican federation — that Cocca is the right man for the job. He’s managed just five matches for Mexico, and Thursday’s will be easily the biggest to date of his tenure.

El Tri have not lost under Cocca. But with two wins and three draws — they have beaten Suriname and Guatemala and drawn against Jamaica, USA, and Cameroon — they haven’t been convincing, either. The underwhelming results on his watch and the four years that have passed since Mexico last beat USA make Thursday night’s contest a high-pressure battle for Cocca.

Mexico’s CONCACAF Nations League roster lacks any players competing for top European clubs, with one exception: 25-year-old Ajax midfielder Edson Alvarez. They do, however, feature several of the top players in Liga MX, including forwards Henry Martin, Uriel Antuna, and Alexis Vega. Mexico also boast a talented keeper in Memo Ochoa, who remains impressive at age 37.

Overall, though, Mexico are considerably less talented now than they were just a few years ago, when they boasted several players from top European clubs, including Chicharito (Manchester United, West Ham), Hirving Lozano (Napoli), and Raul Jimenez (Wolverhampton).

Injuries

A healthy Jimenez would have been included in Cocca’s roster for this tournament, and the same applies to Lozano.

USA vs. Mexico Props

Below is a sampling of props for USA vs. Mexico.

Anytime Goalscorer (FanDuel):

• Henry Martin: +180
• Folarin Balogun: +200
• Ricardo Pepi: +230
• Santiago Gimenez: +260
• Tim Weah: +320
• Christian Pulisic: +350

Correct Score (FanDuel):

• USA 1-0: +650
• USA 2-0: +1100
• USA 2-1: +900
• Mexico 1-0: +800
• Mexico 2-0: +1400
• Mexico 2-1: +1000
• 0-0: +700
• 1-1: +500

Total Goal Props (DraftKings):

• Over 0.5 goals -2500, Under 0.5 goals: +700
• Over 1.5 goals -260, Under 1.5 goals: +165
• Over 2.5 goals +120, Under 2.5 goals: -185
• Over 3.5 goals +310, Under 3.5 goals: -575

USA vs. Mexico Broadcast Info: Where to Watch

• Date/Time: Thursday, June 15, 10 p.m. ET
• Location: Allegiant Stadium

Watch this match at one of the following:

• Paramount+
• Univision
• TUDN

USA vs. Mexico Prediction: USA 2, Mexico 1

While the US have the superior roster, or at least a decided advantage in terms of Champions League experience, bettors should still expect a close match.

Though it’s taking place in Las Vegas, history tells us Mexico will probably have more fans in attendance than the hosts, and Cocca’s side are dangerous due to the desperation they’ll be playing with after going so long without a win over the USMNT.

Over 90 minutes, Pulisic, Reyna, and Co. should be too much for Mexico, especially if Balogun comes even close to living up to the hype after his big season for Reims. Still, plenty of questions surround USA, including: How will Balogun fit with his new international teammates? What will Callaghan get out of his players in his first match as manager?

There’s enough uncertainty on both sides to make the draw (+205 on DraftKings) a tempting option.

Here are a few other bets available at DraftKings that are worth checking out:

• USA (+125)
• Both Teams To Score – Yes (-115)
• Anytime Goal scorer Folarin Balogun (+200)