The stakes keep getting bigger for the USMNT. Saturday’s win-or-go-home game against the Netherlands marks USA’s first trip to the FIFA World Cup Round of 16 since 2014. With a win, Gregg Berhalter’s team would reach the quarterfinals – and a likely clash with Argentina – for the first time since 2002. A trip to the quarters would make the 2022 World Cup one of the most successful in American soccer history, regardless of what transpired from there.
The USMNT has captured not only the imagination of American soccer fans in general, but also soccer bettors, so much so that Ed Salmons, VP of Risk Management at Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said this week that there’s a “decent six-figure number liabilty” on USA winnning it all. Salmons called it his sportsbook’s “biggest liability by far.”
In Gaming Today’s breakdown of USA vs. Netherlands odds, props, and predictions, we examine the Round of 16 matchup.
USA vs. Netherlands Odds: Moneyline, Total for World Cup Clash
Here are the betting lines from the top US sportsbooks for USA-Netherlands. The odds are likely to change between now and kickoff, and it’s always advised to weigh the options at various sports betting apps to find the best bonuses and prices.
These odds reflect the prices for both sides on the three-way line, where a bet on either team is a loss in the event of a draw. DraftKings and FanDuel price the draw at +230, while BetRivers lists it at +225.
SOCCER · Sat (12/3) @ 10:00 am ET
|Khalifa International Stadium, Doha, QA|
The three-way moneyline prices apply only to what the scoreboard reads after 90 minutes of regulation (including extra time). That means that if you bet USA (or Netherlands) to win, and they do eventually advance in overtime or on PKs, your bet still goes down as a loss since the game was tied at the end of regulation.
If you just think one side will advance in knockout play, but fear it might happen after the match is tied through 90 minutes, take a look at odds to advance. For this match, Netherlands are -225 to advance, while USA are +185 on BetRivers. At DraftKings, the “to advance” prices are Netherlands -215 and USA +175, while FanDuel offers Netherlands -240, USA +192.
The total is set at 2.5 goals, with the Over priced at +135 on DraftKings, while the Under is -170. With the USMNT coming off three games in which the total was under 2.5 – including two that went under 1.5 – the steep price of the Under makes sense.
Tall Order for USMNT
The USA vs. Netherlands odds list the Dutch as the clear favorite. USA, though, have to feel confident they can at least hang with the Netherlands after their performance against England. It also must help Gregg Berhalter’s team’s confidence that it never trailed through three group stage games, while allowing just one goal in roughly 270 minutes.
USA face an immensely deep and talented Netherlands side anchored by one of the best players in the world in Liverpool center back Virgil van Dijk. The Dutch squad includes a mix of proven talent including Barcelona midfielder Frenkie de Jong and Man City center back Nathan Ake, as well as some of the sport’s brightest young stars — namely 23-year-old PSV Eindhoven forward Cody Gakpo and 21-year-old Ajax center back Jurrien Timber.
USA vs. Netherlands: World Cup History
USA are back in the World Cup after missing the tournament in 2018. In both 2014 and 2010, the US was eliminated in the round of 16. In 2006, the USMNT failed to advance from group play, four years after the team was eliminated by Germany in the quarterfinals of the 2002 World Cup.
Netherlands boast a rich World Cup history. While the Dutch have never won it all, they have reached the final, only to finish as runner-up, three times. They lost to Spain in the 2010 World Cup final, and also lost in the final in 1978 and 1974. Their other best results include reaching third place in 2014 and finishing fourth in 1998.
USA and Netherlands have never met in the World Cup.
USA Roster, Injuries, and Betting News
The USA is young but immensely talented, especially in the midfield and on the wings. It showed against England that it can play with the best teams in the world, particularly in the midfield. Yunas Musah, Tyler Adams, and Weston McKennie also came up big against Iran in a match their team had to win.
They got the goal they needed to beat Iran early, on a beautifully executed open-play goal that started with a long, lofted diagonal ball from McKennie to right back Sergino Dest, who headed a perfect assist into the path of a charging Christian Pulisic. Unfortunately, Pulisic had to collide with the Iran keeper to finish the goal, and he missed the second half of the match with what has been deemed – after much speculation – a pelvic contusion.
Still, if there’s one problem for the USMNT, it’s scoring goals. The side scored just two in three matches in group play, on seven total shots on target, with all but two coming against Iran. USA are about to face a group of center backs on an entirely different level than anything they saw against Wales and Iran. And while England have a talented backline of their own, it pales in comparison to what the Netherlands have in front of keeper Andries Noppert.
The US roster is led by McKennie, Adams, and Brendon Aaronson, to name a few. All through group play, one of the biggest roster questions was whether fans would see Aaronson or Gio Reyna in the starting lineup. Aaronson got an extended run against Iran, replacing Pulisic for the second half, but Reyna did not take the pitch.
The 20-year-old Borussia Dortmund winger arguably has as much pure talent as anyone on the roster, but Berhalter is committed to starting Pulisic on the left and Tim Weah on the right. Berhalter said Friday that Reyna was most likely to make an appearance if USA were trailing against the Netherlands.
Injury-wise, USA’s biggest issue is the status of Pulisic. He has indicated he’ll be playing Saturday, so a start for the Pennsylvania native seems likely, but it’s unclear whether he’ll be 100%. If not, expect Aaronson to be his replacement. The other injury news for USA relates to Josh Sargent, who tweaked his ankle against Iran. His status is a bit more up in the air than Pulisic’s, but he could still see the pitch against Netherlands.
Netherlands Roster, Injuries, and Betting News
Netherlands advanced through Group A with two wins and a draw. They defeated both Senegal and Qatar 2-0, and drew Ecuador 1-1 in the only game in which they allowed a goal. Those scores indicate that Netherlands controlled those matches. But it’s worth noting that – for what it’s worth — other than the Qatar match (Netherlands held an xG advantage of 1.6 to 0.1 in that one), they actually lost the xG battle against both Senegal (0.9 to 0.7) and Ecuador (0.1 to 1.7).
Offensively, the Dutch have been dependent on Gakpo, who scored in all three matches to account for all but two of his team’s five goals so far. Gakpo is currently in a four-way tie for first place in the battle for the Golden Boot with Kylian Mbappe, Marcus Rashford and Ecuador’s Enner Valencia.
We won’t list every name on this roster who is well-known to avid soccer fans, but it’s worth pointing out that the Dutch boast 12 (!) players with a transfer market value of at least 20 million euros, according to transfermarkt.us. USA, for comparison, have five such players (Pulisic, Reyna, Aaronson, McKennie, Musah).
With van Dijk, Matthijs de Ligt and Ake on the back line and a solid midfield led by Frenkie de Jong, Davy Klaassen, Teun Koopmeiners, and Denzel Dumfries, USA could struggle to control the middle of the pitch the way they did throughout most of group play.
The Netherlands do not appear to have any major injury issues, but de Ligt and Ake would miss a potential quarterfinal match-up if they pick up a yellow card.
USA vs. Netherlands Props
Below is a sampling of props on USA vs. Iran.
Anytime Goalscorer (FanDuel):
- Memphis Depay: +185
- Wout Weghorst: +195
- Cody Gakpo: +270
- Jesus Ferreira: +320
- Josh Sargent: +370
- Christian Pulisic : +490
Correct Score (DraftKings):
- USA 1-0: +950
- USA 2-0: +2500
- USA 2-1: +1400
- Netherlands 1-0: +500
- Netherlands 2-0: +800
- Netherlands 2-1: +850
- 0-0: +850
- 1-1: +550
Total Goal Props (DraftKings):
- Over 0.5 goals -1600, Under 0.5 goals: +800
- Over 1.5 goals -240, Under 1.5 goals: +190
- Over 2.5 goals +130, Under 2.5 goals: -165
- Over 3.5 goals +350, Under 3.5 goals: -475
USA vs. Netherlands Broadcast Info: Where to Watch
- Saturday, Dec. 3, 10 a.m. ET
- Khalifa International Stadium
- Fox Sports App
USA vs. Netherlands Prediction: USA 1, Netherlands 0
I haven’t picked against USA yet, so why start now? This might be the toughest team to score on that the USA has seen in a long time. Still, I believe they’ll find a way against a Netherlands side that will play a much more open style than what USA faced against Wales, England, and Iran.
The Dutch held possession for 54% of the match against Senegal, 54% against Ecuador, and 63% against Qatar. That likely means this game will come down to whether the USMNT’s strength – McKennie, Adams, and Musah – can win enough battles to give Pulisic and Tim Weah opportunities to attack the Netherlands’ stout back line. It’s hard to imagine USA getting many chances to test Noppert, but I’m bullish on this team getting one or two good looks and taking full advantage.
Aside from Gakpo, the Dutch attack did not do much damage against Senegal, Ecuador or Qatar, which gives me confidence USA keeper Matt Turner can keep yet another clean sheet.
USA will need the performance of a lifetime to pull this off, but I like their chances. On a less optimistic note, I don’t see USA advancing if the match goes into overtime. In that case, I think the depth of the Netherlands would prevail, as the USMNT staggered to the finish line against both Wales and Iran, with the backups looking a bit out of their depth in the final minutes against Iran.
Here are two other bets on DraftKings worth checking out:
- Under 1.5 Goals (in regulation): +190
- Double Chance – Tie or USA (in regulation): -110
Updated prices: Odds to win 2022 World Cup