San Diego State takes on UTSA in the Frisco Bowl, and with UTSA tailback Sincere McCormick opting out, expect fewer points. Tepid action on the ‘under’ has chiseled this total down only one or 1.5 points to 49 at BetMGM.
The point spread has flipped on oddsboards around the betting market since UTSA opened a 2.5-point favorite. The day before kickoff, SDSU ranges from a 2-point favorite at FanDuel to -3 at DraftKings.
NCAAF · Sat (8/27) @ 12:30pm ET
|Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX|
San Diego State Aztecs (11-2, 6-6-1 ATS)
The Aztecs are better off naming a starting quarterback, letting him work a possession, then going to the other guy the rest of the way. Starting seems to be that much of a burden.
Neither QB is very good, but Jordon Brookshire, in relief of Lucas Johnson, looked solid when he came in and directed SDSU to a late-season home victory over Boise State that nudged it into the Mountain West title game—where Utah State obliterated the Aztecs.
Greg Bell, the former Nebraska tailback, started the season with three consecutive 100-yard efforts, totaling 405 yards. He registered only two the rest of the way, and he has a team-worst six fumbles.
Their best assets are punter Matt Araiza and lineman Cameron Thomas, who leads a hound-dog defense that might tally more TDs than SDSU’s offense against UTSA.
The Aztecs are 1-4-1 ATS in their past six games, and three of their past five have finished ‘under’ the total.
No. 24 UTSA Roadrunners (12-1, 8-4 ATS)
Losing McCormick, whose 1,479 yards were fifth-best in the country, was a big gut-punch to a young program seeking its first bowl victory in three attempts.
Quarterback Frank Harris, a senior lefty, has thrown for 2,906 yards this season, with 25 touchdowns and five interceptions. Without McCormick, Harris is his team’s best runner, with 565 yards. Over the past two seasons, he has dashed for 15 TDs.
He will be facing an Aztecs defense that allows 6.2 yards per pass attempt, No. 11 in the nation, and a sixth-best 4.5 yards per overall play. Until Utah State’s 46-13 thrashing, eight of nine foes had failed to score more than 21 points against SDSU.
UTSA’s defense has had impressive stretches this season, allowing an average of 14.5 points to four consecutive opponents, 14 in another four-game stretch.
SDSU Vs. UTSA Pick
Do not expect this to be pretty or many points to be scored. In fact, both offenses need to be leery of excellent foes on the other side of the ball. Aztecs middle linebacker Andrew Aleki is tied with six others, at second in the country, with two interception returns for TDs.
For UTSA, linebacker Trevor Harmanson, cornerback Corey Mayfield Jr. and former Texas Tech defensive back Dadrian Taylor have each returned a pick into the end zone this season.
If it’s on a shop’s proposition menu in your state, odds would likely behoove wagering on a Pick-Six occurring in this game.
Our Pick: Under 49 (FanDuel)