As they say, the joint will be rocking. In the case of Vegas it will be the sportsbooks rocking this week with a full schedule of NFL preseason games starting on Wednesday.
Many of my compadres look at me with disgust when I step to the window to make some parlays on these games but as my brother Tom says, there will be a winner and I could actually be on the right side.
How do we get to the right side? Well, luck is a big factor and the thing I like to zero in on is the preseason trends as some head coaches like to win while others just want to weed out a few players and not get regulars injured. We will look at those trends.
Wednesday, Aug. 9
Texans PK, total 36.5 at Panthers (4:30 p.m. PT NFL TV): The Panthers under head coach Ron Rivera have gone OVER the listed total in their last five openers. We will see if this can continue. OVER 36.5
Thursday, Aug. 10
Redskins +1, total 37.5 at Ravens (4:30 p.m. PT): John (I hate to lose) Harbaugh has covered five straight openers. I guess he likes those W’s. RAVENS -1
Broncos PK, total 36 at Bears (5 p.m. PT ABC): Two good reasons to play OVER 36 in this game. First of all it is on national TV and second the Bears have played OVER the total at an alarming rate in their first preseason game. This should be a good game to watch with the fourth quarter being a wild one. OVER 36
Eagles +2, total 39.5 at Packers (5 p.m. PT): GB Head coach Mike McCarthy will take no chances and zero in on his defense, which he needs to shore up. We will not see Mr. Rodgers, and note that McCarthy’s Packers have gone UNDER the total in five straight openers. UNDER 39.5
Friday, Aug. 11
Steelers +2.5, total 38 at Giants (4 p.m. PT NFL TV): This will be our play of the week! Head coach Mike Tomlin is noted for not caring about these games. He plays very few starters and we doubt we’ll see much, if any, of Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers, who are favored to win the AFC North, will be very careful in these games as evidenced by Tomlin’s 0-5 ATS record in his last five openers. Also, Tomlin’s crew has gone UNDER the total the last 9 of 11 preseason openers. Nice parlay here. Giants -2.5/UNDER 38
Sunday, Aug. 13
Lions PK, total 37.5 at Colts (10:30 a.m. PT NFL TV): As Leroy Jethro Gibbs would say, “my gut” says the Lions will eat the Colts in this game. We also note that Detroit has gone 5-1 ATS in their last six preseason openers. We will take our shot with the guy here. LIONS PK
Last week we took a little look at the Alabama/Florida State game. This week it’s Michigan -5 vs. Florida at Arlington, Texas on Saturday, Aug. 2 at 12:30 p.m. on ABC. This game opened up with Michigan a -4.5 point chalk and has move a little but not much. The Wolverines lost a heap of top players (11) from last year’s team to the NFL draft and are out more starters to graduation. So why has some early money gone on the Wolverines?
Florida, under third year head coach Jim McElwain, is 19-8 SU in his first two years and looks to be in good shape this year. We look for a huge defensive effort with Michigan. Gators are a live dog here on a neutral site and we will be in a taking mood. FLORIDA +5
On to Del Mar
Now we will travel to Del Mar for the horse play of the week. On Thursday, Aug. 10 in Race 3, No. 11 Clifton Beach was totally eliminated when stumbling at the start, but did make a little late run. He worked a sizzling four furlongs on Aug. 5 and is reunited with jockey Evin Roman who was on him for a good second, one race back. Look for him to show all of his early speed today.
Get out and take a shot at some of those preseason parlay cards. You could be walking around lucky and not even know it.