NBA · Tue (2/27) @ 7:10pm ET
|Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
Back the Los Angeles Lakers on the moneyline, and the Golden State Warriors with the points.
That’s how early bettors are seeing Game 3 between the two Western Conference powerhouses, with the NBA Playoffs series tied 1-1. Both teams have given bettors optimism after splitting the two opening games in San Francisco.
Let’s examine Warriors vs. Lakers Game 3 odds, props and predictions ahead of Saturday night’s contest on ABC.
Betting Odds for Warriors vs. Lakers Game 3: Spread, Moneyline, Total
The Lakers are -155 and garnered 75% of the DraftKings moneyline handle in early betting action. Although that’s where the bigger money has settled, the Lakers are drawing only 36% of the moneyline tickets. That means the majority of smaller wagers are going on Golden State.
The Warriors have 64% of the spread handle and 56 % of the tickets at +3.5.
The Over stands at 227, right in the range of where the first two games have fallen.
Game 1 went Over, as the Lakers surprised the favored Warriors, 117-112. Game 2 was either a push or win for the Under on most tickets, as the Warriors romped, 127-100, and the total closed in the 227 to 228 range.
The books have nailed their forecast on the totals in the first two games of this series.
Here are Game 3 betting lines from the top sports betting apps.
Golden State seeks its third straight road playoff victory. This seems astonishing because the Warriors had only 11 regular-season road wins, lowest among all NBA playoff teams.
How can a team that goes 11-30 away from home during the season catch fire during the playoffs?
It could be the nature of the beast, according to Johnny Avello, director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings.
“You have to ask yourself how many times Golden State had Steph Curry and a full squad,” Avello told Gaming Today. “It matters now that these guys are healthy, but it doesn’t seem like the players care as much about the regular season anymore.”
Avello said the 2015-16 Warriors may have formed that philosophy. They established a league record for 73 wins and broke over 25 NBA records, but failed to win a championship.
“When they were chasing that record for wins, it took so much energy out of them that they came up short in the end,” Avello noted. “I think that changed the thinking in the NBA. In pro football, teams play to win their division, knowing that if they are the top dog, they will play a lesser seed and maybe a more inferior team.
“The M.O. for the NBA seems to be, ‘let’s just have a good season, make sure we get into the playoffs and that we are healthy when we do that.’ So, when Golden State had a so-so regular season (44-38, sixth in the Western Conference), all that seemed to matter is that they got in the playoffs.”
Once there, the Warriors dispatched the Sacramento Kings in seven games, winning the finale on the road.
They will need at least one more triumph away from home to capture this series.
LeBron and Who for the Lakers?
We have said throughout this playoff series that the Lakers have leaned on LeBron James to score somewhere in the low 20-point range and for another player to come up big.
James got his 23 points in Game 2, but Anthony Davis, the team’s other big player, only got 11. The Lakers often played without urgency, perhaps content to have ensured at least one win away from home.
How a Rout Affects Bettors
The Warriors put Game 2 away with an uncharacteristic 84-47 edge over the second and third periods. That meant fewer minutes for Steph Curry, who had only 20 points, well below his prop number.
Think garbage time in the NBA doesn’t keep bettors on the edge of their seats?
The Under 227 had 56% of the handle, while the Over had 67 % of the DraftKings tickets. And this went right to the wire.
The teams combined for 190 points over the first three quarters, making the Over 227 a mortal lock.
Until it wasn’t.
Only 37 fourth-quarter points were scored. Over bettors fidgeted as no points were scored in the final 1:10. Even just one point would have brought home a winning ticket at most books. Because the game was a rout, there was no need for teams to foul and send their opponents to the free-throw line.
Looney Limited in Lineup Move
Warriors coach Steve Kerr had a hunch about JaMychal Green and gave him 13 minutes in Game 2. Kerr wanted some 3-point effectiveness from one of his big men to loosen up the Lakers defense. He got three of them from Green.
This also meant just 12 minutes of playing time for Looney, the NBA post-season rebounds leader. His rebound Over-Under was 13.5 at most major books, and he did have eight in only 12 minutes. But he only played 12 minutes and that prop was a loser.
Bettors won’t know whether to trust him on a rebounds prop in Game 3. He was money in the bank on the rebound prop total in recent games.
Warriors vs. Lakers Game 3 Prop Bets
Here is a taste of the hundreds of prop bets offered at sportsbooks for Game 3 of this series
DraftKings’ Warriors vs. Lakers Props
- Davis 24.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Curry 30.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- James 26.5. (Over -125, Under -105). That’s sneaking up a little high for him, but the book nonetheless expects a big game from him at home.
FanDuel Props for Warriors vs. Lakers Game 3
Here’s an interesting collection of prop bets for teams coming from behind to win. NBA teams are famous for going on big runs.]
- To Trail by 10 and Win: Lakers (+480, Warriors +600)
- To Trail by 15 and Win: Lakers (+1300, Warriors +1500)
Warriors vs. Lakers Game 3 Prediction
Lakers -3, storming back to win with a vengeance.
How to Watch Lakers vs Warriors Game 3
Game Date: Saturday, May 6, 2023
Game Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Game Time: 8:30 p.m.