Watch the football line moves is my scholarly tip

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LSU keeps rolling along and now will face the in-state Bulldogs from Athens for the SEC Championship at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.

The majority of the crowd will be rooting for the upset as the Tigers are a -12½ point favorite. I will sit this one out unless the number forces me into a get one way or the other as it did this past turkey day with Green Bay.

I had all intentions of betting the Lions +7. The game plan was to sit back and wait as all the public money would be on the undefeated Packers and the line would move up. As I sat in the Palace Station book the number dropped to -5½, then -5, finally ending up -4.

I was forced to take the Packers -4 and copper the big move. Instead of a loser, I ended up with a winner. So sometimes just sit and wait, but don’t take a line that has been over-bet. There is a lesson to be learned when watching line moves.

Sometimes if you really like a side but missed the number it is better to sit it out. There will be many more opportunities down the betting road.

My good friend Sylvester Valella, who hasn’t cashed a ticket since his big win with the mighty Secretariat back in 1973, was with me in the book and out of nowhere makes one of his (basketball) predictions, “North Carolina -7 is a steal.”

I went over and took UNLV +7 and they win by 10. Syl is the best as his streak is almost like the little bunny that just keeps going and going. As for myself, UNLV travels to Cal-Santa Barbara this Wednesday and plays a 7 p.m. game.

I will be taking Santa Barbara in a game that I just don’t think the Rebels can get up for in what looks to be a real good situation play. This past week wasn’t as good as it could have been, but there are a few I really like this week so let’s get started.

THURSDAY NCAA FOOTBALL

West Virginia PK at USF: The Mountainteers showed grit in comeback win in the backyard brawl against Pitt last Saturday and come into this game looking for win number nine playing a team losing six of its last seven. WVU.

SATURDAY NCAA FOOTBALL

Iowa St. +11½ at Kansas St.: The host Wildcats had a week off after grueling 17-13 victory win at Texas and now catch the up and down Cyclones off of huge games at Oklahoma last week and their big win at home against Oklahoma State. KANSAS ST.

Oklahoma +3½ at Okla St.: Almost every week I land on a game I really want to sink my teeth into and this is it. Very simple, Iowa State beat Oklahoma State and then Oklahoma beat Iowa State. Now Okie State will beat OU and then the Cowboys will sit and hope for the best and a shot at LSU in the BCS title game. OKLAHOMA ST. (best bet)

BYU -7½ at Hawaii: We get a rare afternoon game in Honolulu. The Cougars will be in just about every parlay I make Saturday going for win number nine and a good bowl game. Some teams have a good time going to the islands, but this will be just another game for BYU and business as usual. BYU.

SUNDAY PRO FOOTBALL

It was just another crazy NFL Sunday. Here are my two plays, but take them with a grain of salt.

Saints -6½. Detroit is cooked and barring any bad fortune on Monday night Drew Brees and the Saints pick up the win.

Colts +21 is the biggest sucker play since this past Sunday night’s game with the Steelers laying -10½ at KC. I won’t fall for it even though my dear dad always told me not to back a bad team. I will be forced to take a flyer with Indianapolis, which somehow, someway manages to get the cover here.

 

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