Week 5 NFL player prop bets started off with another 2-0 showing on Thursday night on the Gaming Today newsletter. This brings our record to 21-9 and profiting 18.47 units this season and we will not stop there! Followers of this weekly article will continue to get the betting edge on sportsbooks with the goal of getting to 100 units of profit by the end of the Super Bowl. Without further adieu, let’s talk week 5 player prop bets!
Week 5 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Patrick Mahomes To Score A Touchdown +320 (BetMGM)
Mahomes loves to run in big games. When the Chiefs are in the playoffs, Mahomes is essentially an auto-bet to score a touchdown. In a huge game, which is destined to be an AFC Championship preview, Mahomes could be looking to get into the end zone with his legs. It may have flown under the radar but Mahomes has run a lot in the last two games. Sorry to keep taking stabs at QB props but I love this bet.
Trey Sermon To Score A Touchdown +275 | Sermon 2+ Touchdowns +1600 (PointsBet)
I know, I know – do I bet this right now or not? What about Elijah Mitchell? Well, this is tricky because Kyle Shanahan is very quiet about injury news, he doesn’t like to tip his hand under any circumstances. At +275, you are going to get incredible closing line value if Mitchell is indeed inactive again this week. Even if Mitchell does play, Sermon will have a shot to plunge into the end zone, the 49ers love to run the ball. The upside is way too high here. Sermon to get two touchdowns is +1600 which is worthy of a bet as well. Mitchell is +700, if he’s inactive Sermon will carry this backfield.
Week 5 Player Prop Bets
Trey Sermon Over 26.5 Rushing Yards -110 (PointsBet)
The man had 89 yards last week on 15 carries! Even if Elijah Mitchell is active, I am backing Sermon to cover this number. The 49ers are going to run the ball throughout the game and keep the ball out of Kyler Murray’s hands. It is the TREY SERMON WEEK this week!! I will not bet the Sermon lines until Saturday because I am positive PointsBet will move the lines if I do (not kidding). I think the 49ers win that game outright against the undefeated Cardinals
Najee Harris Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts +105 (DraftKings)
Najee has been as good as I thought he would be. Denver pressures the quarterback so much that the Steelers will want to pound the ball with Harris as much as possible. Unless they want Ben Roethlisberger to die back there.
Jameis Winston Over 7.5 Rushing Yards -105 (DraftKings)
You know I had to throw a QB rushing prop in there right? This number feels like another classic overcorrection. Just because Jameis has not run the last two games, does not mean that he will continue to not run it. Think of it as a reverse hot hand fallacy — just because it didn’t happen the last two times does not mean it will never happen again. Winston is averaging 15 rushing yards per game and did not attempt a carry last week. He will likely get back to running for a few first downs like he was earlier in the year.
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