After starting the season 4-1 on touchdown scorer props, I have cooled down, winning just one of my last five plays. Still, my TD props have banked a 7.5 unit profit through five weeks of the NFL season.
Sportsbooks are slow to release them, but with the numbers finally posted Friday, I have a beautiful card of Week 6 player props focused on yards and usage.
Current 2021 NFL season record: 24-14 (16.38 units of profit)
Week 6 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Props
Ezekiel Elliott To Score A Touchdown -115 (PointsBet)
The Patriots run defense has been pretty terrible all season. Ezekiel Elliott has more juice in his legs than he has in the past two seasons, and the number here is a bargain. Anything better than -150 is a great bet for me. Give me Zeke!
Robert Tonyan To Score A Touchdown +220 (FanDuel)
Tonyan is a redzone target for Aaron Rodgers. His target share is solid, and Aaron Rodgers looks like he is back to his MVP self. At +220, you can’t pass up that kind of value.
Player Prop Bets — Matchups And Usage Are King
Kyler Murray Over 257.5 Passing Yards -114 (FanDuel)
This line is confusing. Kyler Murray has easily passed this total four times consecutively, and there’s a shootout incoming in Cleveland for a matchup of former Lincoln Riley pupils Murray and Baker Mayfield. This is my favorite bet of the week.
Justin Fields Over 14.5 Rushing Yards -115 (PointsBet)
DraftKings mistakenly put Fields at 12.5, a number that got hammered by sharps until they pulled the line. BetMGM throwing up 14.5 is more reasonable but still too low. If you can get a lower number, you should be on it.
Darrel Williams Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts +100 (BetMGM)
I expect the Chiefs to win big at Washington. Moreover, in the playoffs last season with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out, Williams had 13 carries in each game against the Bills and Browns. Jerick McKinnon is mostly a pass-catching running back, and while Williams will catch passes too, he should dominate the carries. At even-money, this is a rock-solid bet this weekend.
Mac Jones Under 270.5 Passing Yards -115 (DraftKings)
A model I lean on projects Jones at 238.5, so this is a wide disparity. Jones has gone ‘over’ this number twice this season but against the vulnerable pass defenses of the Buccaneers and Dolphins. The Dallas defense has been a darling of the league, advanced analytics agree, and the Cowboys’ speed is a mismatch against the Patriots’ lack of playmakers.
#Cowboys have an #NFL high 10 defensive players with a max speed of 19MPH so far this season according to NFL Next-Gen stats. They had just 3 players through the first three weeks of 2020. Data confirms what is visually evident on the field = they are playing fast fast!
— Louis Riddick (@LRiddickESPN) September 30, 2021
Patrick Mahomes Under 40.5 Pass Attempts -110 (DraftKings)
I expect the Chiefs to win wire-to-wire. No Edwards-Helaire is a concern but 41 throws are a ton if they aren’t behind. The Washington offense is unlikely to keep up with Kansas City, so the Chiefs could go into clock-killing mode after the half. Projections have this around 37 attempts, and it could go lower than that if it gets ugly early. Washington’s secondary will get blasted in this one. This is going to be an ‘under’ from me, dog (Randy Jackson voice).
Kalif Raymond Under 42.5 Receving Yards -114 (FanDuel)
The Lions’ Kalif Raymond had 0 yards receiving last week on two targets. His outlook gets worse when you realize he is the fourth target (at best) on the Tennessee offense, behind DeAndre Swift, TJ Hockenson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The 42.5 is much too high here.
Also read: NFL Week 6 Odds and Early Moves