There were two great bets that appeared out of nowhere this past Sunday.
First was Cleveland as a 2-point favorite, but came off the board early Sunday because of the QB situation then reappeared with the Dolphins a -2 point favorite.
Like I say, when favorites are switched bet the original. Browns won, 17-16.
Next bet is one of my all time favorites – when the books take a game off the parlay card bet the other side. Eagles QB Michael Vick was a question mark early in the week so when the cards came out some spots had the Eagles -6½.
When Vick was cleared to play the line went up to -7½ and slowly edged up to -8½. Some of the books removed it from the cards. A very high percentage play over my years dealing with parlay cards is betting the team getting the +8½. In this case it was the New York Giants, who won outright 29-16.
When I worked behind the counter it was almost like clockwork that when we took a game off the cards the side we didn’t want the bettors to take would somehow find a way to lose.
In this day and age the corporate run books must protect their interest so you can understand their concern with wise guys making round robins. That spells “Danger, Will Robinson” (those Lost In Space shows) as they only need to win one or two weeks a year to make their nut.
Still, it’s a good bet for us little punters so keep an eye open for both wagers. As for Vick he probably wishes those team doctors did not give him the green light to suit up. His hand took a lick, but X-rays show it was just bruised not broken and he may play this week.
Last week I went 50-50 with Notre Dame doing its usual “here is the ball act.” I think these guys have a tub of butter on the sidelines they dip their hands in before going out on the field. They may get the cover this week, but not with my money.
Boise State forgot to play the second half and Vandy could only muster a field goal, losing by 18 with me taking +16½. The entire world was on East Carolina as the line moved from -12½ to -16½. They won by 5 and took down a majority of the parlay cards.
Let’s see what I am doing this week.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SATURDAY
Minny +20½ at Michigan: Don’t like laying the lumber in this league but must take a stand against the Golden Gophers who lost to New Mexico State and last week got blown out by North Dakota State 37-24 as a 9-point favorite. Undefeated Michigan will be 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS (remember, the first game ended early so there was no betting action) before hitting the road. MICHIGAN.
Penn St -17½ at Indiana: I must be out of my mind to lay this high number with the Lions but on the other side of the ball we have the Hoosiers who lost last week to North Texas. PENN ST.
W. Mich +3 at UConn: The Broncos gave Illinois all they wanted last week in Champaign, losing 23-20. They have three straight ATS covers while the Huskies have little or no offense. This game goes down to the wire. W. MICHIGAN.
Alabama -5 at Florida: The Gators have won and covered all four of their games and in revenge mode after getting thrashed by the Crimson Tide the last two years. A good one to watch. FLORIDA.
Oregon St +17½ at Ariz St: Home-loving Arizona State, who beat Missouri and crushed USC in Tempe, look to do the same to the winless Beavers who have no wins and no covers in three games. ARIZ ST.
Miss St +7 at Georgia: State’s only cover came against hapless Memphis. Georgia looks to avenge last year’s 24-12 loss in Starksville. GEORGIA.
Nebraska +9 at Wisconsin: I was hoping to just lay -7, but will live with -9. The Cornhuskers have no covers in their first four games. Badgers have covered their last three games albeit against some soft competition. Wisconsin looks to have the edge in defense and its BCS hopes start right here. My key teaser bet laying -2. WISCONSIN.
NFL
SUNDAY
Steelers +2½ at Texans: Despite a hard fought loss in New Orleans last week, Houston is one good team with way too much offense for the Steelers. Pittsburgh just did get by the Colts last week. I don’t bet with my heart, plus this is my parlay key. BEST BET. TEXANS -2½