It looked like Oklahoma’s reign on top of the Big 12 might end in 2020, but the Sooners rallied late in the season and took the conference title for the sixth year in a row. As the 2021 NCAAF season approaches, fans of every other Big 12 team are probably wondering if Oklahoma’s reign of terror will end this year.
Will it?
With Lincoln Riley having to start an unproven quarterback for the first time, last season looked like an excellent chance for someone else to rise up. When the Sooner dropped two of their first three, it looked like a done deal.
But then the right teams lost late in the season, right when Spencer Rattler (Oklahoma’s new quarterback) seemed to find his rhythm in the Sooner offense.
The stars aligned for Oklahoma, and they won the Big 12—again.
Now that Rattler has a season under his belt (and an offseason), the Sooner offense will probably not have the early struggles like it did in 2020. He will have plenty of talent to work with and three veterans returning on his offensive line. As for the defense, it will be one of the better ones in the Big 12.
| 2021 Big 12 Conference Champion | DraftKings | BetRivers |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | -125 | -125 |
| Iowa State | +250 | +250 |
| Texas | +350 | +350 |
| Oklahoma State | +700 | +700 |
| TCU | +2200 | +2200 |
| West Virginia | +2200 | +2200 |
| Kansas State | +2800 | +2800 |
| Baylor | +4000 | +4000 |
| Texas Tech | +4000 | +4000 |
| Kansas | +15000 | +15000 |
So, it comes as no surprise that the Sooners are favored to win the conference again. But is there any reason to believe someone will take them down? Is there value in betting on one of the other teams in the Big 12?
Big 12 Championship Odds —Who Will Play In The Title Game?
The Big 12 is a little different from most of college football (if not all) when it comes to its conference title game. Conference title game participants are usually the two division winners, but the Big 12 does not have divisions. In the Big 12, it is the two teams with the best records that face off in the title game.
Who will it be this year?
To Reach 2021 Big 12 Conference Final DraftKings BetRivers
Oklahoma 305 -305
Iowa State +100 +100
Texas +120 +120
Oklahoma State +300 +300
TCU +900 +900
West Virginia +800 +800
Kansas State +900 +900
Baylor +1400 +1400
Texas Tech +1600 +1600
Kansas +5000 +5000
Hopes were high for Iowa State last season. Even though the offense got off to a slow start, they were still in control of their own fate late in the season. But they could not hold off a surging Sooners team and lost in their regular-season finale. According to the oddsmakers, the two teams likely to make it are the Sooners, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State. With a potent offense coming back and an excellent defense, it is not hard to imagine the Sooners getting the chance to play for a seventh title in a row. But who will they face?
The offense will be loaded with veteran talent, and the defense will be one of the best in the conference yet again. If they can work the kinks out during the non-conference part of their schedule, it is easy to see them making the title game, too—and maybe even winning it.
Expectations are high for Texas every year, and every year they find some way to disappoint their fan base. There is a lot of excitement around the Longhorns with new head coach Steve Sarkisian in town. Should he work the same magic with the Texas offense as he did Alabama’s, the Longhorns could be challenging.
But Sarkisian will have a first-year starter at quarterback this year and several other new players in the lineup.
Hopes will be high for Oklahoma State again, but the Cowboys will need several guys to step up and for a few new starters to emerge. They will be worth watching, but it is hard to say they will be one of two teams playing in the title game.
As for the rest of the conference, the only team you can rule out is Kansas. But Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas State, West Virginia, and TCU will all need several players to step up and/or emerge to become contenders.
They will probably need a few calls and a couple of lucky bounces to go their way as well.
Spencer Rattler TD and a pair of ankles as a souvenir
— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) November 22, 2020
Betting Recommendations
As for the title game, there is no reason to think Oklahoma will not be one of the teams playing in it. If the Sooners stay healthy, they will be favored in every game this season—and probably should win them all, too.
But the second team is a tougher call. Texas has let fans down for years, and at +120, there is little to no value for sports betting fans on the Longhorns. Oklahoma State has too many mistakes it needs to correct, which leaves Iowa State as the likely second team.
If you want to take a flier on a longshot—give TCU some consideration. The offensive line will need to do a better job of protecting the quarterback, and the defense will need to replace a few key playmakers. But if the offensive line and defense can do their part, the Horned Frogs could emerge as contenders.
As for the conference title, Oklahoma is the safe bet. Their offense is stacked, and the defense up to the challenge of holding off most Big 12 offenses. Iowa State would not be a bad choice, but if you are looking for a bet with more value, think about TCU.
But more than likely, the Sooners are going to own the Big 12 once again.
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