San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
First pitch: 5:10 p.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Joey Lucchesi (3-2, 5.00 ERA) vs. Jon Gray (3-3, 4.22 ERA)
There’s nothing else in sports betting quite like a Coors Field over/under for its extra variables that cannot be escaped, but I’m still going to explore this one anyway. With the right pitching matchup, there’s potential to profit.
I believe that’s just what we have here tonight from Colorado, as it’ll be two underrated starters squaring off in the second meeting of this three-game set.
Lucchesi is someone I was high on (along with the Padres as a team) entering the season, and while the overall stat line may not show it, the 25-year-old southpaw has been mostly good in his second season.
Look no further than his respectable 3.52 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which indicates he’s pitched far better than his undeserved 5.00 ERA. Lucchesi has also had to deal with an unlucky .333 batting average on balls put in play against him.
This bet may boil down to whether or not Lucchesi can handle the challenge of working at Coors. Fortunately, he’s already proven he can be up for the task. The former fourth-round draft pick has made five career starts opposite Colorado — including two in their hitter-friendly ballpark — and he’s fared well, etching a cool 3.10 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. In his pair of assignments at Coors, Lucchesi limited the Rox to just two earned runs across 12 innings total.
Colorado has registered eight straight winning overs coming into this one but Lucchesi is definitely someone who can help put a stop to that. His counterpart, Gray, can also factor in significantly based on how solid he’s been thus far in 2019.
Although the five-year veteran can be inconsistent, I like Gray to have one of his better showings today. He was terrific against the Padres a few weeks ago in holding them down to a measly run in seven sharp innings.
It’s also to the advantage of under bettors that Gray hasn’t started a game in more than a week. For his career, which is a long enough sample size to go off of, the right-hander has a 4.01 ERA and 10.7 K/9 in 18 outings in which he was starting on six or more days of rest. That’s considerably better than when he’s on five days (5.11 ERA, 9.1 K/9) or four or less days (4.53 ERA, 9.2 K/9) of rest. Play: UNDER 10 (-110)
Yesterday’s Result: Reds-Giants Under 7.5 (WIN)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 23-19-1, +1.75 units
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
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