Will Soroka Stay Locked In?

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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 3:10 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Mike Soroka (2-1, 1.62 ERA) vs. Trevor Richards (0-4, 4.64 ERA)

Even though it’s only the first Saturday in May, there’s no question the National League Rookie of the Year race has been a pretty interesting conversation, with numerous viable breakout stars in the making that are in contention for the honor.

Soroka is name that is absolutely in that discussion. While he actually did have some major league experience coming into the campaign from five encouraging starts a year ago, the 2015 first-round draft pick is still considered a rookie. And he’s coming off an excellent first month of ‘19.

In three assignments thus far, Soroka has been stingy, holding the opponent to just one run each time out. He’s also accumulated 21 strikeouts compared to six walks in 15.2 innings pitched.

Look for more similar work from Soroka as the season rolls along. He has legit potential and he’s also getting a favorable matchup tonight. Miami is dead-last in MLB in runs (88; or 2.84 per game) and team OPS (.618).

Richards doesn’t carry even close to the same pedigree or hype as his counterpart this evening, being undrafted, but he’s still someone that has also shown potential of sticking in the majors as a solid starter.

His 4.64 ERA doesn’t tell the full story, as Richards has actually been pretty good in the first month-and-change of the season, spinning four quality starts in his six turns in the rotation.

Additionally, the second-year right-hander, who entered the season armed with a new cutter grip, has exhibited considerable progress from his freshman campaign last year. 

Richards’ swinging strike percentage (14.0 percent) has gone up, while he’s also garnering notably less contact on all pitches (70.0 percent) and pitches swung at in the zone (76.4 percent).

It can only help Richards here that he’ll be home at pitcher-friendly Marlins Park, too. With another decent outing combined with Soroka’s continued upwards surge, the recipe is in place for a low-scoring affair. Play: UNDER 7.5 (-110)

Yesterday’s Result: Red Sox-White Sox Under 8 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 18-17-1, -1.15 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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