Novak Djokovic appears to be on his way to a fifth consecutive Wimbledon men’s singles championship, but he’ll need to overcome Jannik Sinner in Friday’s semi-final to keep that dream alive.
In this edition of Wimbledon betting odds & picks, we look at ways to profit without making a wager on the outright winner, since Djokovic is priced as such a heavy favorite. Sinner took Djokovic to five sets (winning the first two!) last year at Wimbledon, before losing 5-7, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2.
Odds on Sinner vs. Djokovic Wimbledon Men’s Semifinal Match
Here are odds to win this semi-final, current as of Thursday. Betting lines tend to change and vary across sportsbooks, so it’s always advised to check several of the best sports betting apps to find the most attractive odds for the bets you wish to make.
TENNIS · Fri (7/14) @ 11:00 am ET
|All England Club, London, GB|
Is it Worth Betting Djokovic to Win?
Djokovic is 2-0 in head-to-head meetings against Sinner, including that epic five-set match at Wimbledon last year. The Italian is one of a few players to possess the power to match Djokovic, but bet against the “Joker” at your own peril.
On the flip side, betting Djokovic to win at -550 at BetMGM is not an attractive option. At those odds, he has an 84.62% implied probability of winning, but that’s just too much juice for most bettors’ taste. Sinner is the +400 underdog as of this writing, with a 20% implied probability of advancing to the final.
FanDuel is dealing Sinner +450 (a better price if you want to bet the underdog), and Djokovic -630 as of today.
The winner of Thursday’s semi-final meets either Carlos Alcaraz or Daniil Medvedev in the Wimbledon men’s final on Sunday.
Sinner has enjoyed an easy draw at Wimbledon and has yet to face a top-50 player en route to the semi-final. His serve will have to be on point, as it was last year if he’s to have a chance to beat Djokovic.
When was the last time Djokovic lost at Wimbledon? Remarkably, it was 2017. He was trailing in the quarterfinal against Tomas Berdych, 7-6 and 2-0, when he retired due to an elbow injury.
How to Bet This Wimbledon Semifinal Match
We’re targeting four correlated plays for Sinner vs. Djokovic on Friday. These are all based on the belief that Sinner will win one set.
Both Players to Win a Set (-142 at FanDuel)
Djokovic was taken to four sets in his last two matches against Andrey Rublev and Hubert Hurkacz, respectively. Sinner, of course, took him to five last year at Wimbledon.
Total Sets Over 3.5 (-132 at FanDuel)
Naturally, you make this bet if you believe Sinner wins at least one set.
Four Sets Will be Played in Match (+180 at BetMGM)
Love this plus-money play with the prospect of Djokovic winning the match, 3-1.
Over 36.5 Games Will be Played in Match (-120 at BetMGM)
FanDuel is dealing the same odds on this prop. If you want to take a more conservative route, play Over 35.5 at BetMGM (-135).
Wimbledon Men’s Futures Odds
Heading into the semi-finals, Djokovic is the -200 betting favorite at BetMGM to win his fifth straight Wimbledon title. That’s a better price than FanDuel at -210. Given his invincibility on the grass at Wimbledon, that seems like a fair price range.
Many tennis pundits have pegged Carlos Alcaraz as the player to take down Djokovic, and he is priced accordingly as the second betting choice.
How to Watch Wimbledon Men’s Semifinal
Date: Friday, July 14, 2023
Time: 11 a.m. ET (approximate)
Location: All England Club, Wimbledon