USA Women’s World Cup Odds 2023: Oddsmakers Respond To Underwhelming Group Play Showing

USA did enough to survive group play, but the pre-tournament 2023 Women’s World Cup favorites hardly looked like the best team in Group E, much less the entire World Cup field. Following Tuesday’s draw against Portugal, which concluded around 5:00 a.m. Eastern, USA had reached the round of 16, but top sports betting apps had changed the 2015 and 2019 world champs’ prices significantly.

It will be interesting to see how these prices move between now and the start of the round of 16, as USA avoided elimination by inches when a Portugal shot in the 92nd minute clanged off the post. Carli Lloyd, for one, was not the least bit impressed.

“There’s a difference between being respectful of the fans and saying hello to your family, but to be dancing and smiling…”@CarliLloyd on the USWNT after the match pic.twitter.com/38zm1eC76r

— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) August 1, 2023

Before this year’s World Cup kicked off, the USWNT’s futures price ranged from +220 (Caesars) to +250 (DraftKings), with those two books, as well as FanDuel and BetRivers, all viewing Vlatko Andonovski’s side as the clear favorites. Now, USA remain the favorite at +320 at Caesars entering the round of 16 – ahead of Spain at +400 and England at +425 – while FanDuel has USA, England, and Spain all priced at +430.

DraftKings is the only book that doesn’t have USA as at least a co-favorite: at +450, the USWNT is DraftKings’ third-favorite, behind Spain and England, both of whom are +400.

USA 2023 Women’s World Cup Outright Odds

Below are the USWNT’s odds to raise the trophy at Caesars, FanDuel, BetRivers, and DraftKings.

2023 Women’s World Cup Contender Odds

USA’s struggles in group play, combined with impressive showings from Spain and England, have made this a three-horse race at the four sportsbooks mentioned above. Japan and Germany are also both listed at 9-to-1 odds or shorter across the board.

Analysis of USWNT’s World Cup Odds

USA entered this tournament with a roster full of experience from the title-winning teams in 2015 and 2019 and young talent, from Sophia Smith and Trinity Rodman up top to Naomi Girma and Emily Fox on the back line.

The biggest question was how would a team whose top players hadn’t played much together – at least not in high-stakes matches — fare against the best, most cohesive teams in the world. That issue takes on added importance in a World Cup field featuring several European sides that gained invaluable experience in last year’s Euro.

USA’s inexperience at manager – and whether Andonovski would be able to press the right buttons, in terms of both lineup choices and tactics – represented another question mark.

Through three matches in group play, the USA back line has been solid, allowing just one goal in more than 270 minutes. But with Julie Ertz at center back instead of in the midfield, USA have not been as good in that area as they’ve needed to be, especially against the Netherlands. Up top, the combination of Alex Morgan and young wingers Trinity Rodman and Sophia Smith was ineffective against the Netherlands, and a front three of Smith, Morgan and Lynn Williams failed to score against Portugal.

With Lavelle set to miss this team’s round of 16 match-up (likely against Group G winner Sweden), Andonovski has a number of tough decisions to make regarding the starting XI for his team’s first do-or-die match. With Lavelle suspended for yellow card accumulation, will Andonovski move Ertz into the midfield? That would break up a back four that has been solid, but center back Alana Cook is a capable option.

Changes need to be made in the attack as well after USA scored just once (on a corner kick) in its last two matches of group play. Against a solid Netherlands side, the biggest problem was the failure to generate scoring chances. The USWNT finished that match with just 0.9 xG. But in the Vietnam (4.7 xG) and Portugal (2.4 xG) games, this team created plenty of opportunities, but failed to convert them into goals.

Prediction: What are USA’s Chances to Lift the Cup?

We wrote before the World Cup got under way that the 2023 edition would be harder for the USWNT to win than any previous WWC. So far, that feels like a massive understatement. Oddsmakers, however, remain bullish on the pedigree of American women’s soccer, and understandably so.

Still, through group play, we’ve seen little — if anything — to ease the concerns that A) USA are not as good as they were in 2015 and 2019, and B) the competition is vastly improved.

Call this a knee-jerk, pessimistic overreaction to an ugly showing against Portugal, but right now USA look more likely to be eliminated in the round of 16 – or maybe the quarters – than reach the final. That makes a bet on Spain or England a great value play.