Xavier vs Texas Predictions, Odds, Trends: Longhorns Lay Points in Sweet 16

While the 2023 NCAA Tournament has featured its share of upsets, the Midwest Region has played close to form. On tap for Frida night, we have a 3 vs. 2 Sweet 16 matchup between the Xavier Musketeers and Texas Longhorns for a spot in the Elite Eight.

Both squads have done well this season. Xavier fell just short in the Big East title game against Marquette, while Texas won the highly competitive Big 12 championship.

Let’s take a look at the Xavier vs. Texas odds and betting trends, as well as go over our against-the-spread prediction for this contest.

Xavier vs. Texas Betting Lines: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Texas (between -182 and -205 on the moneyline) is a 4- to 4.5-point favorite against the Musketeers, which bettors can lock in anywhere between +150 and +165.

The betting public is leaning towards the Longhorns to win outright, with 66% of moneyline tickets at DraftKings being placed on the No. 2 seed. However, bettors are split 50/50 when it comes to totals bets. The Over/Under total ranges anywhere between 148.5 and 149.5 points.

Here are current odds on the game offered on legal US sports betting apps.

Xavier vs. Texas Betting News

Xavier

The Musketeers topped two double-digit seeds in Kennesaw State (No. 14) and Pittsburgh (No. 11) through the first two rounds, but it didn’t come easily. Xavier trailed the Owls in Round 1 with about 11 minutes to go, which sparked a 28-10 run to win the game.

Guard Souley Boum kicked in an extra gear and scored 10 points over the final eight minutes to rally his team back. Jerome Hunter led the game with 24 points.

Xavier suffered growing pains soon after losing leading rebounder Zach Freemantle (15.2 PPG, 8.1 RPG) in late January, but quickly regrouped and has won seven of its last eight games.

The key has been a much-improved defensive unit. The Musketeers are limiting opponents to 66.3 points per game, despite facing top-ranked offenses in Creighton, Marquette, and Pittsburgh.

Not to mention the program ranks 7th in offensive efficiency (per KenPom). It averages 81.2 points a night (10th in the nation), ranks first in assists (19.3 per game), and shoots the three-ball at the fifth-highest percentage in the nation (38.9%).

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Texas

The ‘Horns are playing so well this season, you wouldn’t be able to tell they parted ways with their head coach in December. The Chris Beard-less Longhorns play a more balanced style of basketball than Xavier, ranking top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Texas has been playing shutdown defense all season, but they’ve somehow gotten even better in March. The ‘Horns have given up an average of 58.2 points over its last six games, including 59 and 56 points in two meetings with the top-seeded Kansas Jayhawks. They haven’t allowed an opponent to exceed 66 points in a game since March 1.

The result? A six-game winning streak that’s been taking place at the most crucial point of the season. The recent momentum can be attributed to their top-scoring duo, Marcus Carr and Sir’Jabari Rice. But Texas’ unsung hero has been senior forward Dylan Disu, who’s averaging 22.5 points and 10 rebounds in this tournament.

Also check: March Madness futures odds

Xavier vs. Texas Betting Trends

Xavier

• Xavier is 19-16-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
• Xavier is 7-3-1 ATS as the underdog, 12-13 ATS as the favorite
• Xavier is 4-4 ATS at neutral sites
• Xavier is 2-4 ATS in its last six games, 5-5 ATS in its last 10 games
• The total has gone 22-13 on the Over in Xavier games

Texas

• Texas is 18-18 ATS this season
• Texas is 15-14 ATS as the favorite, 3-4 ATS as the underdog
• Texas is 4-4 ATS at neutral sites
• Texas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games, 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
• The total has gone 16-17-3 on the Over in Texas games

Got a futures ticket? How to hedge NCAA Tournament futures bet

Xavier vs. Texas Betting Pick

This game is projected to be relatively high-scoring, but by the look of each team’s recent success on the defensive end, we don’t see this game hitting 150-ish points. The Musketeers’ offensive is lethal, but Texas games simply don’t allow for high-scoring outputs. The Under has hit in each of the Longhorns’ last seven games.

Texas can and should win this game, and with a spread of just 4.5 points, we’re backing the favorite to cover. The ‘Horns have covered this spread total each of their last six games, winning by an average of 13.5 points over that span. But they aren’t just winning games outright – Texas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.

Pick:  Texas -4

More insight: Expert picks from Las Vegas | Sweet 16 player props, parlays 

How to Watch Xavier vs. Texas

• Game Day: Friday, Mar. 24, 2023
• Game Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
• Location: T-Mobile Center | Kansas City, Missouri
• Channel: CBS