It is not uncommon for most games in the final week of the NFL regular season to have little-to-no meaning, but that is not true for the XFL. Every game this weekend has playoff implications, making the XFL Week 10 odds pretty interesting.
Houston is the South Division winner but is the underdog to Arlington, who must win to get in. If San Antonio is to have a shot at the postseason, the Brahmas have to shut down one of the most explosive offenses in the XFL (DC) or simply outscore them. A win doesn’t necessarily lock down a playoff spot for St. Louis or Seattle.
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XFL Week 10 Odds & Picks
In the North division, it is down to St. Louis and Seattle. If one wins and the other loses, the winner makes the playoffs. But if their games this week have the same outcome (win or lose), it will come down to a tiebreaker not determined until after Week 10 finishes.
As for the South, Arlington can win a date with the Roughnecks in the postseason with a win this weekend. For San Antonio to make it, the Renegades must lose, and the Brahmas must beat the Defenders. It should be an exciting weekend of XFL action. Let’s look at the games, starting with the Guardians vs. Battlehawks.
Guardians (1-8, SU, 4-4-1 ATS) vs. Battlehawks (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS): Moneyline, Point Spread, and Total
The game will be broadcasted on Saturday afternoon on ESPN at 12:00 p.m. ET. However, bettors and fans can also watch it streaming on ESPN+.
XFL · Sat (4/22) @ 12:00 pm ET
| Orlando Guardians | at | St. Louis Battlehawks |
| The Dome at America's Center, Saint Louis, MO | ||
Since taking over at QB, Quinten Dormady has turned the Orlando offense around and even led the team to its first win over the previously undefeated DC Defenders. He has cooled down since his red-hot start, but the Guardians offense has potential with him behind center. But the defense still struggles to get off the field.
As for the BattleHawks, they have one of the better all-around teams in the XFL. When AJ McCarron is on, the offense is tough to stop. But he is battling a shoulder injury, which impacted his play last week. He’ll need to get the offense on track early to help make up for a defense weak against the run (131 YPG allowed; worst in the XFL).
Betting Analysis
Orlando is not the same terrible team that it was in the first half of the season. The offense has become capable, but the defense gives up a league-worst 28.6 PPG. We think St. Louis will win the game, but it is hard to say they’ll cover the spread — especially with McCarron’s health in question. We see the Battlehawks winning, with both teams scoring in the 20s.
Our Pick: Over 48.
Defenders (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) vs. Brahmas (3-6 SU, 4-4-1 ATS): Moneyline, Point Spread, and Total
The game will be broadcasted on Saturday afternoon on ABC at 3:00 p.m. ET. However, bettors and fans can also watch it streaming on ESPN+.
XFL · Sat (4/22) @ 3:00 pm ET
| D.C. Defenders | at | San Antonio Brahmas |
| Alamodome, San Antonio , TX | ||
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A few weeks ago, the Defenders looked unstoppable. But then, the only winless team in the XFL proved that they were. Orlando’s win seemed to expose the DC defense and took away the mystic that went with being undefeated.
Since that Week 7 game, we’ve seen Seattle almost recorded an upset win against the Defenders in Week 8, and Arlington gave them a run for their money in Week 9 (and should have won the game). So, what can we learn from those games?
DC can score on anyone, but anyone can score on them.
As for San Antonio, the Brahmas have consistently been one of the most formidable defenses in the XFL. They lead the league in PPG allowed (17.1) and YPG allowed (265.7). Only the Defenders (24) and Roughnecks (33) have more sacks than them (23). The offense is capable but unreliable, but it should be able to score some points against DC.
Betting Analysis
The outcome of this game will not impact the Defenders. They’ve already locked up home-field advantage; a loss at this stage of the season means nothing to them. So, it would not be surprising to see them pull players early in the game. Then again, they may not.
San Antonio will put its best foot forward, but will it be good enough to beat DC? Eh…that’s hard to say. The Brahmas may be able to slow the Defenders down, but they will not stop them (even if DC sits people). Jack Coan will have a nice day against a weak Defenders secondary. We like DC to win but feel more confident with taking the Over.
Our Pick: Over 42.
Roughnecks (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) vs. Renegades (4-5 SU, 2-7 ATS): Moneyline, Point Spread, and Total
The game will be broadcasted on Sunday afternoon on ESPN at 3:00 p.m. ET. However, bettors and fans can also watch it streaming on ESPN+.
XFL · Sun (4/23) @ 3:00 pm ET
| Houston Roughnecks | at | Arlington Renegades |
| Choctaw Stadium, Arlington, TX | ||
Arlington has played solid defense all season but struggled to get the offense on track. That is, until they traded for and inserted Luis Perez into the lineup. He had an efficient day in his first start against the Guardians two weeks ago (16-for-25 for 190 yards) and had an impressive game against the Defenders (31-41 for 335 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT).
He’ll need to have a similar game if the Renegades are going to record a win over the Roughnecks. But it will not be as easy to do so against Houston… or maybe it will…
The Roughnecks’ defense appeared to be the best in the XFL over the first few weeks of the season, but not since the team’s first loss in Week 5. Jordan Ta’amu had an easy day against them that week (19-for-31 for 231 yards and 2 TDs). AJ McCarron had 222 yards and three TDs the following week.
Jack Coan (Brahmas) had a bad day (Week 8), but then Jalen McClendon threw for 249 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week. The Roughnecks would have lost their fourth game if Houston’s defense had not helped the offense by scoring a pair of touchdowns.
Betting Analysis
Luis Perez will throw early and often against the Roughnecks. If he can get on track early, it could be a long day for Houston — especially if their offense has another off day. It was awful against a poor Vipers’ defense; luckily, the defense was able to save the day.
In the first matchup between these two teams, the Arlington offense struggled to move the ball. Quarterback play was not the only issue, but it was a significant one. Luis Perez is an upgrade, but he is not an All-Star. However, he has proven he can get the Renegade offense moving.
The Houston offense will look better this week but will continue to have issues. Much like last week, the defense will save the day. Arlington will put up a fight as it tries to qualify for the postseason, but the Roughnecks will win.
Our Pick: Houston +100.
Vipers (2-7 SU, 2-7 ATS) vs. Sea Dragons (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS): Moneyline, Point Spread, and Total
The game will be broadcasted on Sunday afternoon on ESPN2 at 7:00 p.m. ET. However, bettors and fans can also watch it streaming on ESPN+.
XFL · Sun (4/23) @ 7:00 pm ET
| Vegas Vipers | at | Seattle Sea Dragons |
| Lumen Field, Seattle, WA | ||
The Vipers have improved both sides of the ball in recent weeks. But they still make too many mistakes to win games. Defensively, they rank second to last in points per game and rushing yards. They are not much better at defending against the pass, either (No. 6).
With Jalen McClendon at quarterback, the offense has looked decent. But like it has all season, mistakes cost them a chance at their third win last weekend against the Roughnecks. Two fumbles resulted in a pair of touchdowns for Houston (who won by seven).
Seattle was in a must-win situation last week to keep their playoff hopes alive and dominated the Battlehawks. They find themselves in a similar situation this week. A victory will not secure their spot, but a win coupled with a St. Louis loss would.
Should both teams win (which is a possibility), the final playoff spot will come down to a tiebreaker.
Betting Analysis
Vegas has improved, but Seattle arguably plays the best football in the XFL. Their defense is fast, and their offense is one of the more explosive in the league. If Ben DiNucci can take care of the ball, there is no reason to think the Sea Dragons will lose. But asking them to cover an 8.5-point spread may be a bit much.
Our Pick: Over 47.5.
XFL Championship Odds
These XFL futures are current as of Apr. 21 at four of the top sportsbook apps in the country:
| Teams | BetMGM | BetRivers | Caesars: Promo Code TODAYFULL |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.C. Defenders | +105 | +110 | +110 |
| Houston Roughnecks | +200 | +210 | +200 |
| Seattle Sea Dragons | +250 | +225 | +280 |
| Arlington Renegades | +1000 | +1000 | +1300 |
All signs had been pointing towards a Defenders-Roughnecks championship game, but not anymore. Houston still needs to get their offense on track, and DC can’t seem to knock anyone’s offense off-track. Both have been the favorites to win the XFL Championship all season but look vulnerable.
AJ McCarron’s health must be of concern for St. Louis supporters. Seattle has been on a roll for most of the season, but can they survive if Ben DiNucci throws a couple of picks? With how good the Arlington offense looked last week against Houston, they could become a surprise contender.
Betting Analysis
It’s gone from looking like Houston or DC would win to any of the four teams that make the playoffs could win it all. With how Seattle has played of late, the Sea Dragons look like the best team in the XFL. But the Defenders’ offense is good enough to outscore anyone. If Houston can find the explosive play their offense has missed in recent weeks, the Roughnecks could win it all.
But, with how well they’ve looked in recent weeks, it may not be a waste of money to bet a few bucks on Arlington.
Our Pick: Seattle; DC can’t stop anyone, and Houston’s offensive struggles will prove fatal.
Dark Horse: Houston, D.C.
Longshot: Arlington
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