XFL Odds & Picks: Week 4 Best Bets for All Games & Championship Futures

The 2023 XFL season rolls on in Week 4 with two games scheduled for Saturday night, plus two more to follow on Sunday. Several teams played noticeably better last week, which is apparent in the latest XFL odds for an action-packed slate of games. The point spreads and totals are getting larger. Two games have totals listed at 40+ points and the lowest spread this week is set at 3.5 points.

These guys are not ready to take on the Kansas City Chiefs, but they can definitely play.

Houston and Orlando will start the week Saturday night, followed by Seattle hosting San Antonio. St. Louis will play at home for the first time this season as they host Arlington. Meanwhile, D.C. will try to remain undefeated against the visiting Vipers.

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XFL Week 4 Odds & Picks

Playing well one week does not necessarily mean a team will play any better in the following game.

Some teams continue to develop and evolve into a better side — playing above expectations — while others fizzle out to crash and burn. After all, this is a new league with teams that do not have much experience playing together. Growing pains come with the territory.

On that note, let’s look at this week’s XFL odds.

Roughnecks (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) vs. Guardians (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS): Moneyline, Point Spread, and Total

The game will be broadcast on Saturday night on F.X. at 7 p.m. E.T. However, bettors and fans can also watch it streaming on ESPN+.

With how the Guardians had played through the first two weeks, it was not hard to see them losing by more than 8.5 points last week against Arlington. But when teams are developing, like all XFL teams are, an improvement from one week to the next can be dramatic.

Paxton Lynch played his best game of the season and got the offense moving against a decent Arlington defense. Defensively, it was their best game of the season as well as they held Arlington to less than 200 yards. But they will have to take their game to another level this week just to compete with the Roughnecks, who may have the best offense and defense in the XFL.

The offense wracked up 374 yards of offense while the defense held the Brahmas offense to just 162 total yards. No team has run for 100+ yards against them, and the defense is averaging 13 ppg allowed while the offense is scoring 26 ppg.

Betting Analysis

This could be a trap game for the Roughnecks. If they do not bring their “A” game from the start, they could allow an improving Orlando team to stay in the game longer than they should. The Guardians played well last week against Arlington, but the change at quarterback certainly helped the Orlando defense look good.

Houston should easily win this one, but 8.5 points is a large spread for a spring football game. But the Roughnecks offense is much more prolific than the Renegades and will not have the same struggles Arlington did.

Our Pick: We think the Roughnecks will win and cover, but 8.5 points is a large spread.  Take the Total to be under 37.5 points, as the Roughnecks could pitch the XFL’s first shutout. But if the Guardians play like they did last week, the Under is the way to go.

Outcome: The game was ugly from the start as Houston cruised to an easy 44-16 win.

Brahmas (1-2 S.U., 1-2 ATS) vs. Sea Dragons (1-2 S.U., 1-2 ATS): Moneyline, Point Spread, and Total

The game will be broadcast on Saturday night on F.X. at 10 p.m. E.T. However, bettors and fans can also watch it streaming on ESPN+.

All the momentum San Antonio gained after dominating Orlando in Week 2 disappeared in Week 3. Houston dominated them in every facet of the game. Jack Coan struggled just to complete a pass (8-of-20 for 64 yards), and the run game didn’t have much success, either (98 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries).

However, the defense did something no one has been able to do yet — hold Houston scoreless in the second half. But it will not be easier to get on track this week against an underrated Sea Dragons team.

Seattle quarterback Ben DiNuci had the XFL’s first 300+ yard passing game last week against Vegas (29-of-37 for 377 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception). He has established a good rapport with two receivers: Josh Gordon (six catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns) and Jahcour Pearson (seven receptions for 99 yards).

If he can eliminate the turnovers, the Sea Dragons could become the team to beat in the XFL.

Betting Analysis

Seattle has arguably the most experienced coaching staff in the league. If last week is any indication, the team may be getting on the same page. However, their biggest problem could keep them from earning their second win of the season this weekend: turnovers. They have had eight so far, with six coming from DiNuci.

San Antonio is a good enough team to take advantage of those turnovers.

Our Pick: It would not be shocking to see San Antonio win or at least cover the spread. But we like taking the Over for this one.

Outcome: Defense ruled the day as the Sea Dragons beat the Brahmas, 15-6 (only one turnover by DiNuci).

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Renegades (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) vs. BattleHawks (2-1 S.U., 2-1 ATS): Moneyline, Point Spread, and Total

The game will be broadcast on Sunday afternoon on ESPN2 at 4 p.m. E.T. However, bettors and fans can also watch it streaming on ESPN+.

The defense has led the way for the Renegades so far, scoring twice in Week 1 and holding off the Vipers long enough last week for the offense to get it together. The offense looked dismal for most of the game against a poor Guardians team.

While Orlando played better than expected, the quarterback switch (Kyle Sloter got the start over Drew Plitt) played a big part in Arlington’s offensive struggles. The Renegade offense was still not explosive, but it became efficient during the second half of the game.

While the defense will keep them in the game this week, they’ll need a better game from the offense to earn the win.

A.J. McCarron nearly led the BattleHawks to another come-from-behind victory last week against a solid Defenders defense but fell short in the end. The game’s outcome could have been different if the offense had not turned the ball over four times (three by McCarron). However, the offense did gain nearly 300 yards against one of the best defenses in the league.

Betting Analysis

If McCarron can get the passing game clicking like he did last week against the Defenders and not turn the ball over, the Renegades could be in for a long day. However, while Arlington’s defense is not as good as D.C.’s, it is still pretty tough. If Kyle Sloter can pick up right where he left off last week, the Renegades may have the advantage because their efficient offense will score points and eat up the clock.

Of course, if McCarron can do the same, we could have a game on our hands.

Our Pick: This is a tough one. Arlington is a capable team, but so is St. Louis. It would not be shocking if this one were a nail-biter, which makes Arlington at +4 the way to go.

Outcome: St.  Louis 24 Arlington 11

Vipers (0-3 S.U., 1-2 ATS) vs. Defenders (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS): Moneyline, Point Spread, and Total

The game will be broadcast on Sunday afternoon on ESPN2 at 7 p.m. E.T. However, bettors and fans can also watch it streaming on ESPN+.

This game is the first rematch of the season. The two teams faced off in Week 2 in Las Vegas, a game dominated by a defense that saw the Defenders score two fourth-quarter touchdowns to secure the win. Outside of their first-quarter touchdown, the Vipers offense was ineffective against the D.C. defense.

But it was the first time Brett Hundley took most of the snaps at quarterback. Hundley and the offense had a much better game against the Sea Dragons last week, albeit in a losing effort. But they will find it more challenging to move the ball against the Defenders defense.

D.C. is arguably the best team in the XFL; we’ll find out in Week 6 when they face the Houston Roughnecks. Gregg Williams has the defense playing well, and the quarterback tandem of D’Eriq King and Jordan Ta’amu is getting the job done on the offensive side of the ball.

Betting Analysis

Hundley played better last week against the Sea Dragons but only completed 13 of 28 passes. He’ll need to have a better connection with his receivers this week if the Vipers are going to give the Defenders a fight. As is, the D.C. defense will probably focus on stopping the Vegas run, daring them to throw the ball.

Our Pick: D.C. is a six-point favorite for a reason, but since spring football teams tend to get exponentially better from one week to the next, it’s hard to say with confidence that they can win by more than six. Taking the Under is a good default selection, but both teams showed they could score some points last week.

But the Vegas offense will not be as active this week against the D.C. defense. Take the Under.

Outcome: DC 32 Vegas 18

XFL Championship Odds

These XFL futures are current as of March 9 at four of the top sportsbook apps in the country:

The odds have certainly changed quite a bit from where they were prior to the start of the season. Houston and Orlando were tied for the longest odds in the league at +800 (via Caesars), while St. Louis and Seattle had the shortest at +400. Expectations were low for D.C., who opened at +600. But now the Roughnecks and Defenders have the shortest odds in the league.

Betting Analysis

But in a league such as the XFL, where teams stand to get exponentially better from one week to the next, it is impossible to rule anyone out just yet. Orlando has been dreadful, but their effort last week was night and day compared to Weeks 1 and 2. If they can continue to improve and get a few breaks, they could go on a run and earn a spot in the postseason.

Arlington, Vegas, St. Louis, and San Antonio have shown a ton of potential, but whether they can win it all will depend on how well they continue to develop. All three can play with anyone, but each needs to get better to take down the Defenders or Roughnecks. There is value to all four, but there is one team with more — Seattle.

The Sea Dragons have arguably the most experienced coaching staff in the league, and it shows in the improvement they’ve made from one week to the next. However, they have to cut down on turnovers to have a shot at winning it all. Ben DiNuci is thriving under the guidance of June Jones, but he needs to do a much better job of protecting the ball.

As for Houston and D.C., both have solid defenses and good offenses. The D.C. offense may be more prolific with the running ability of both quarterbacks. The Defenders have also been more balanced (149.7 rushing ypg and 129.7 passing ypg to 87.0 and 230.7 for Houston). But that balance could cost them in the long run if they ever fall behind and must play catch up.

The Week 6 game between Houston and D.C. could be a championship game preview.

Our Pick: Houston

Longshot: Seattle, Arlington

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