XFL Odds & Picks: Week 5 Best Bets for All Games & Championship Futures

XFL Week 5 odds have been posted at participating sportsbooks, and if the odds are any indication, we should have some good games this week. Like last week, spreads are growing, and totals are getting higher as offenses start to figure things out. But, in a league full of developing teams, anyone can win — it’s just a matter of making the right improvements from one week to the next.

The action starts Thursday this week, with the Roughnecks taking on the Sea Dragons in Seattle. Saturday will feature a primetime doubleheader with the Defenders-Battlehawks followed by the Guardians-Vipers. Week 5 will wrap up on Sunday, with the Brahmas hosting the Renegades.

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XFL Week 5 Odds & Picks

The XFL 3.0 reaches the halfway point of the season this week, which is where it ended for the 2.0 version. There is no reason to think that will happen this time, so fans can continue enjoying and betting on these entertaining games. A couple of teams have started to pull away from the rest of the pack, but with most teams improving each week, it’s anyone’s ballgame.

On that note, let’s look at this week’s games!

Roughnecks (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) vs. Sea Dragons (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS): Moneyline, Point Spread, and Total

The game will be broadcasted Thursday night on ESPN at 10:30 p.m. ET. However, bettors and fans can also watch it streaming on ESPN+.

If the Roughnecks are already thinking about their Week 6 showdown with the Defenders, they could easily get upset this week. While Seattle is just a 2-2 team, the Sea Dragons are one of the teams getting better each week. Two weeks ago, their offense stepped up and led the team to a win. Last week, it was the defense that stepped up.

Of course, to beat the Roughnecks, they must improve even more this week. Houston has the stingiest defense in the league (13.8 points per game; 237.5 yards per game) and the No. 1 offense (30.5 points per game; 333.5 yards per game).

Betting Analysis

As long as Houston continues to improve and isn’t looking ahead to the Defenders game in Week 6, this is their game to win. Seattle will give them the most challenging game they’ve seen so far this season, but the Sea Dragons aren’t in the same class as the Roughnecks (yet).

Our Pick: Houston will win this game and go into Week 6 with a 5-0 record. But rather than take the moneyline at -165, let’s try to win a little more money and take Houston minus the points at -110.

Defenders (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) vs. Battlehawks (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS): Moneyline, Point Spread, and Total

The game will be broadcasted Saturday night on FX at 7 p.m. ET. However, bettors and fans can also watch it streaming on ESPN+.

Both teams are the class of the XFL North division and playing solid football after four weeks. A.J. McCarron is getting more and more out of the Battlehawks’ offense each week. After struggling to get the offense on track the first two weeks, they’ve gained around 300 yards and scored 28 and 24 points in the last two.

But to beat the Defenders, they can’t turn the ball over four times as they did in Week 3.

As for the defense, while it stifled the Arlington offense last week, it has struggled to slow opposing offenses down. Had the Defenders not turned the ball over three times in Week 3, the final score would not have been as close as it was.

The Defenders have developed into one of the best teams in the league, with an offense that averages 155 yards per game on the ground. They could be in trouble if they ever get into a situation that requires them to play catchup. But with their stout defense and run game, that may never happen.

Betting Analysis

This is going to be a great ball game. Both teams have improved since they last played two weeks ago, especially on offense. It’s hard to say who is going to win this game. But it is easy to say one thing: they will score some points.

Our Pick: Over 41.5

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Guardians (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. Vipers (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS): Moneyline, Point Spread, and Total

The game will be broadcasted Saturday night on FX at 10 p.m. ET. However, bettors and fans can also watch it streaming on ESPN+.

After a solid performance in Week 3 vs. Arlington, it looked like the Guardians might turn things around. Then, they played the Roughnecks in Week 4 and looked as dreadful as they did the first two weeks of the season. Paxton Lynch has improved, but it doesn’t look like they have an identity on offense yet.

It doesn’t help when the head coach berates the offensive coordinator on the sideline during the broadcast. As for their defense, Houston had no respect for them last week, and they did nothing to show they deserved any.

Vegas has had some bad luck so far. They gave away the game in Week 1 with turnovers, faced an improving Seattle team in Week 3, and have already played the Defenders twice.

So, their defense may not be as bad as the stats make it out to be (second to last in scoring, 25.5 points per game allowed; last in rushing, 157 yards per game allowed; second to last in passing, 209.8 yards per game allowed). As for their offense, it ranks fourth in total yards (294 yards per game) and fifth in points (17.5 points per game). If they can get some help from the defense, they may become competitive.

Betting Analysis

This is a trap game for bettors. If you’ve been watching the games, you know just how bad the Orlando team is, making it easy to justify a bet on the Vipers. However, they have had the unfortunate luck of playing Houston twice already. They didn’t look half bad when they played another struggling team (Arlington).

But with the body language and behavior head coach Terrell Buckley displays on the sideline, it is hard to imagine him motivating the players and getting them to play better.

Our Pick: With how poorly the Vipers’ defense has been, it is hard to see them holding off the Guardians’ offense. This game could be an excellent week for Orlando on that side of the ball. But it is hard to have faith in the Guardians; the same is true for the Vipers.

Take the Over.

Renegades (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS) vs. Brahmas (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. Sea Dragons: Moneyline, Point Spread, and Total

The game will be broadcasted Sunday night on ESPN2 at 9 p.m. ET. However, bettors and fans can also watch it streaming on ESPN+.

Jack Coan looks a lot like he did in college — he’s efficient and capable, but he will not light anyone up. He can move the ball and doesn’t make many mistakes, but the Brahmas will likely never be a high-scoring team. However, against a struggling Arlington team, he will not need to.

The Renegades made a change at quarterback after Week 2, hoping to give the offense a spark — but it hasn’t worked. Kyle Sloter started to look decent late in the game against Orlando in Week 3, but then the Battlehawks’ defense had his number last week.

It will not get easier against a decent Brahmas defense this week.

Betting Analysis

If you had high hopes for a Bob Stoops-coached team, then you are probably disappointed in what we’ve seen from Arlington this season. The defense is alright, but it doesn’t get any help from the offense. San Antonio is not a great team, either. But they will play well enough to beat the Renegades.

Our Pick: Brahmas, -2.5 (-110)

XFL Championship Odds

These XFL futures are current as of March 14 at four of the top sportsbook apps in the country:

After solid showings in Week 4, Houston and DC separated more from the rest of the league on betting boards. It will be interesting to see what happens to the odds after these two teams play in Week 6. If the Roughnecks win, it would not be shocking if Houston has minus odds. DCs will also get shorter if they win, but they’ll still have plus odds since their offense isn’t as prolific.

But with over half a season to go, anything can happen, and no one is out of the running just yet.

Betting Analysis

Technically, no one is out of the playoff picture just yet. But it is getting hard to see certain teams improve enough to become competitive (i.e., Orlando, Vegas, Arlington). San Antonio has flashed signs of potential, making them a decent longshot at +2500 (keep your bet small), but if you roll the dice on anyone, roll them on Seattle.

Our Pick: Houston

Longshot: Seattle or St. Louis

Dark Horse: San Antonio

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