XFL Week 3 Odds & Picks: Bets to Make on All Four Games

What we have learned about the XFL over the last two weeks is certainly reflected in the XFL Week 3 odds at sportsbooks. However, these teams have not played together long and are still developing. So, just because a team plays well or poorly one week doesn’t mean they’ll look the same the following week.

The action will start Saturday night with the Sea Dragons facing the Vipers in Las Vegas. Fans and bettors will be treated to a triple-header on Sunday, beginning with a matchup of undefeated teams (BattleHawks vs. Defenders) in DC, followed by Renegades vs. Guardians and Brahmas vs. Roughnecks.

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Odds & Picks for XFL Week 3

After two weeks, we are starting to see who the more competitive teams in the league are. However, as teams figure out what works for them, they’ll begin to turn things around. Bettors should consider how teams have played so far. But they should also keep in mind which teams are close to figuring out how to play their “A” game.

Sea Dragons (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Vipers (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS): Moneyline, Point Spread, and Total

The game will be broadcasted on Saturday night on FX at 7 p.m. ET, but bettors and fans can also watch it streaming on ESPN+.

The Sea Dragons have played a decent game against both of their opponents to date, good enough to win against lesser teams. But they have been beating themselves. The offense has outgained their opponents each week, but turnovers have been costly. In Week 1, it was a pair of interceptions and a fumble, and in Week 2, three fumbles.

Defensively, they have played well. But the offense keeps putting them in a hole. Once the offense starts protecting the ball, Seattle will get tough to beat.

As for the Vipers, after struggling to run the ball in Week 1 (25 yards on 15 carries), there was more of an effort to establish it in Week 2. While they were more effective on the ground (90 yards on 20 carries), the passing game struggled, and the offense never got on track against a tough Defenders defense.

Betting Analysis

This is a “get right” week for the Sea Dragons. They have had a demanding schedule so far. But in the Vipers, they get an opponent that is more of a work in progress than they are. Seattle will control this game from start to finish — as long as Ben DiNucci doesn’t turn the ball over.

Our pick: Sea Dragons -3

Outcome: With a 65-yard touchdown from Ben DiNuci to Josh Gordon late in the game, the Sea Dragons pulled out the win, 30-26.

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BattleHawks (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. Defenders (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS): Moneyline, Point Spread, and Total

The game will be broadcasted on Sunday afternoon on FX at 1 p.m. ET, but bettors and fans can also watch it streaming on ESPN+.

The BattleHawks may have been the most improved team in the league from Week 1 to Week 2. The offense failed to click for most of the game in Week 1, but in Week 2, they got the run game on track (26 carries for 108 yards), and A.J. McCarron and his receivers appeared to be more in sync.

But they will be in for a real test against a tough DC defense this week.

Defensively, they gave up a lot of yards (299 total yards) but made up for it with three clutch turnovers. They gave up 300+ in Week 1 but managed to hold the Brahmas to field goals. If they do not toughen up against the run, they could be in for a long day against a Defenders team that rushed for 229 yards last week (42 carries).

The DC offense has struggled to get the passing game on track, but that could be because the run game is working. They will likely do the same against a BattleHawks defense that has allowed 100+ yards rushing each week.

Betting Analysis

Both teams have enjoyed success on offense, but you can’t describe either as explosive. The DC defense will put the St. Louis offense to the test this week. As for the Defenders, they’ll lean on the run game this week, which means long, time-consuming drives.

Our pick: We are leaning towards DC to win, but A.J. McCarron has had a knack for pulling games out in the end. But we are more confident that the score will be low; take the Under.

Outcome: McCarron had a shot at pulling off another miracle finish at the end of the game, but the BattleHawks failed to convert on the 4th and 15 play. Final Score– 34-28, Defenders.

Guardians (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Renegades (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS): Moneyline, Point Spread, and Total

The game will be broadcasted on Sunday afternoon on FX at 4 p.m. ET, but bettors and fans can also watch it streaming on ESPN+.

It is hard to find positive things to say about the Guardians. Defensively, they have given up 30+ points a game. In spring football, where points are at a premium, you can’t do that and win games.

It doesn’t help that the offense can’t figure things out. Neither Paxton Lynch, Deondre Francois, nor Quinten Dormady has played well enough to lay claim to the starting quarterback job. But the run game has averaged 4.5 and 4.9 yards a carry. So, maybe they’ll be more competitive if they lean on the run game?

As for Arlington, the offense improved from Week 1 to 2. But it also had the unfortunate luck of facing a fast, athletic Houston defense last week. Against a Guardians’ defense that has given up four touchdowns a game, Drew Plitt should have no trouble moving the offense up and down the field.

Betting Analysis

There is no reason to have any faith in the Guardians. Head coach Terrell Buckley was clearly frustrated with his team throughout their game last week. That was evident whenever they talked to him on the sideline during the game.

This will be Arlington’s “get right” week against the XFL’s weakest team.

Our pick: Renegades -8

Outcome: With the change at quarterback, the Arlington offense took a long time to wake up. But finally did for long enough in the fourth quarter to score the go-ahead touchdown. Final Score: 10-9, Renegades.

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Brahmas (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Roughnecks (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS): Moneyline, Point Spread, and Total

The game will be broadcasted on Sunday afternoon on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET, but bettors and fans can also watch it streaming on ESPN+.

After a tough loss in Week 1, the Brahmas bounced back with a nice win over Orlando in Week 2. The offense gained over 100 yards less in Week 2 against a poor Guardians team, but it was more efficient and ended drives with touchdowns rather than field goals.

Jack Coan has been a solid, efficient quarterback, much like he was in college. His running back, Kalen Ballage, leads the XFL in rushing yards with 107. But most of that came in Week 1; he was held to just 23 yards on 12 carries last week against Orlando.

Houston is the most prepared team in the league (so far). While there are still kinks to work out, the defense has been stingy through two weeks (13 points per game allowed). They have been able to move the ball well on offense but need to do a better job protecting it (five turnovers).

The second-half adjustments they made last week against Arlington were impressive.

Betting Analysis

San Antonio worked out a lot of kinks last week against Orlando but will find it much tougher to move the ball this week. The Roughnecks should win a good game if Houston can protect the ball. But if they can’t, San Antonio’s offense is good enough to make them pay.

Our pick: Roughnecks -4

Outcome: San Antonio opened with a touchdown but then Houston answered with one and never trailed again. The Roughnecks defense dominated the second half of the game. 22-13, Houston.

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