US Presidential Election Odds 2024: Biden Makes Huge Jump, Trump Backslides

President Joe Biden is gaining favor among election bettors, pulling into a virtual odds dead heat with Donald Trump after months as an underdog.

As the pace of the presidential primary season increased, so did interest in polls and betting markets. They both offer clues as to what the public is thinking about its choices.

Those choices coalesced around incumbent Biden, a Democrat, and former president and Republican Donald Trump.

The 2024 US presidential election odds continue to fluctuate throughout the election cycle. We have you covered with a one-stop source for election betting news throughout the debates, primaries, polls, and everything in between.

The next federal election is slated for Nov. 5, 2024. This next US president odds tracker will keep you updated on how wagering and exchange markets view the race between Biden and Trump.

According to the latest US election odds at DraftKingsDonald Trump (+100) remains the betting favorite to become the next president of the United States. At +100 odds, Trump has a 50% implied probability of winning the presidential election in November. President Joe Biden remained the second favorite at +110.

These odds shifts are dramatic when compared to recent lines. Just a month ago, Trump was at -120 with Biden at +165.

Biden also made a huge jump in February from +240 after a fiery and well-received performance in the State of the Union Address.

Former First Lady Michelle Obama (+1600), independent challenger Robert F. Kennedy Jr., (+1800), California Gov. Gavin Newsom (+4000) and Vice President Kamala Harris (+4000) round out the top six betting favorites in odds to win the US election. Former Republican challenger Nikki Haley is at +6500 despite suspending her campaign.

Odds trends:

  • Trump was at -120 ten weeks ago and -110 eight weeks ago.
  • Biden was at +175 eight weeks ago and +200 ten weeks ago.
  • Michele Obama was +700 seven weeks ago.
  • Newsom was +1100 seven weeks ago.
  • Kennedy was +2500 seven weeks ago and didn’t get a bump from naming attorney and tech entrepreneur Nicole Shanahan as his running mate. Recent polling showing him cutting into both Biden’s and Trump’s base might have triggered his odds shift.

Check back for updated election odds, trends, and polls that influence them.

2024 US Presidential Election Odds

The odds listed throughout this page are from DraftKings Sportsbook, which offers legal political betting in Ontario, Canada.

Presidential CandidateDraftKings Odds
Donald Trump+100
Joe Biden+110
Michelle Obama+1600
Robert Kennedy Jr.+1800
Gavin Newsom+4000
Kamala Harris+4000
Nikki Haley+6500
Gretchen Whitmer+10000
Hillary Clinton+15000
Elizabeth Warren+20000

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At +100, a $100 bet on Trump would pay $100.00 in profit ($200 total) if the 45th president returns to the Oval Office.

A presumptive Biden-Trump head-to-head can be played in the “Winning Party” market where the Republicans (-110) are now tied with the Democrats. The Democrats were a +105 pick on April 1. An independent win remains at +2500.

Keep in mind betting on elections isn’t legal in the United States. Although American bettors can’t legally apply their opinions or emotions to a candidate as they would a sports team or an athlete, interest in political wagering has grown drastically in recent years. You can find US election odds at some of the best sports betting apps.

Odd Swings in DraftKings Presidential Market

Some notable line-moving developments this week:

  • Trump’s “teflon” image may be taking a hit with his hush-money case underway in New York. He’s reportedly fallen asleep at least once and sketch art from the courtroom has been unflattering. He’s also been admonished for lashing out at witnesses and promoting social media posts from right-wing news sources describing jurors.

2024 Presidential Party Odds

The most popular form of election betting involves wagers on individual candidates. Still, there are also presidential party odds that allow bettors to pick whichever party they expect to capture the West Wing next November.

PartyOdds
Republican-110
Democrat-110
Independent+2500

News Events, Trends That Could Impact the Election

  • The United States Supreme Court heard arguments over Trump’s assertion of presidential immunity. The court hasn’t ruled, but its delays increase the likelihood his documents case will not get underway before the election.
  • Nikki Haley suspended her campaign in early March after Trump dominated Super Tuesday primaries.
  • The US Supreme Court voted not to allow Colorado to remove Trump from the primary ballot under the insurrectionist clause in the Constitution.
  • The US Supreme Court agreed to hear Trump’s case over presidential immunity, making more real the possibility he could avoid standing trial over attempts to overthrow the 2020 election before voting begins in the 2024 edition.
  • Trump’s hush money trial in New York was scheduled for March 25. It’ll be his first of four criminal trials prosecutors in Washington, D.C., Florida, Georgia and New York hope to get underway before the election.
  • Trump’s $454 million owed New York following a civil fraud ruling is due the same day.
  • Haley has escalated her attacks on Trump’s mental preparedness for another term, trashing the choice of two elderly men in a joint screed against Biden.
  • Trump came out against Alabama’s controversial Supreme Court ruling on IVF.
  • Biden condemned Russian President Vladimir Putin after the death of Alexi Navalny. Trump wouldn’t.
  • South Carolina US Senator Tim Scott, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and NY Congresswoman Elise Stefanik appear to be angling for a potential VP slot with Trump. Noem’s admission she killed her dog because it wasn’t a good pheasant hunter figures to hurt her chances.
  • DeSantis endorsed Trump after quitting the race, apparently to reboot for a possible try for the White House again in 2028. His second term as Florida governor ends in 2026. Florida governors may serve no more than two consecutive terms.
  • The Oregon Supreme Court refused to remove Trump from the ballot on Jan. 12 because of the insurrection clause in the Constitution and says it will await a ruling from the US Supreme Court. Colorado’s Supreme Court earlier ruled he should be removed from the primary ballot there, but stayed the ruling until SCOTUS can act.
  • Trump continued to foster support from Republican voters and politicians alike with New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu saying on Jan. 11 that he’d support Trump as a nominee even if he is a convicted felon. (This while supporting Haley in the primary process). Trump is facing 91 felony counts on multiple crimes ranging from election interference to mishandling of top-secret documents in multiple jurisdictions.
  • On Dec. 20, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled in a 4-3 decision to remove Trump from the Republican primary ballot for violating the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution by inciting insurrection on Jan. 6. The case is already moving to the US Supreme Court. As controversy and chaos have been the oxygen of his political career, Trump figures to fund-raise and improve in polls (and odds).
  • Democrats performed very well in off-cycle elections nationally in November of 2023. With much of the Democrats’ momentum being fueled by pushback on anti-abortion legislation foisted by Republicans, Gov. Andy Beshear won re-election in red-red Kentucky and Democrats took control of both houses in Virginia. This rebuke in Virginia figures to have blunted the rise of Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin to a national stage at least in the near-, but possibly in the long-term also.
  • West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin announced in November of 2023 that he would not seek what would have been a tough re-election to the US Senate. Though he often chaffed his fellow Democrats legislatively trying to defend his bona fides back home, Manchin was valuable as a chess piece in holding the Senate. That will be difficult now. Also, there are rumblings that Manchin could run for president, possibly further diluting Biden’s pool of voters.

US Election Betting Favorites

Only 10 of 45 incumbents who sought re-election as presidents failed to return to the White House. Two of those — George H.W. Bush and Trump — have occurred in the last 30 years.

Presidents Who Failed to Win Re-Election as Incumbents:

  • John Adams (1797-1801)
  • John Quincy Adams (1825-1829)
  • Martin Van Buren (1837-1841)
  • Benjamin Harrison (1889-1893)
  • William Taft (1909-1913)
  • Herbert Hoover (1929-1933)
  • Gerald Ford (1974-1977)
  • Jimmy Carter (1977-1981)
  • George H.W. Bush (1989-1993)
  • Donald Trump (2017-2021)

In the 2020 presidential election, Biden scored a 306-232 Electoral College victory over Trump.

Trump fell nearly 7 million votes behind Biden in the popular vote count.

Trump, awash in state and federal indictments for alleged crimes including election fraud and commandeering top secret documents after leaving office, hopes to exploit his loyal base and the unpopular Biden to claim back the Oval Office.

There have been rumblings about primary challenges to Biden, especially with his approval numbers typically dipping into the dreaded 30% range. But, just one Democrat, Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips, has so far filed paperwork.

Former Democratic blueblood Robert Kennedy Jr., whose uncle, John, was the 35th president and whose father and namesake was assassinated while running for office in 1968, is running as an independent because his views and opinions have strayed far from the party’s core beliefs.

Next US President Odds: Value Picks and Longshots That Failed

It’s rare for a Presidential campaign to sort itself out so quickly. No, the official nominees won’t be officially minted until their respective conventions in the summer of 2024. But unless something startling transpires, Biden will represent the Democrats.

Trump from the beginning enjoyed leads in the polls over his once-numerous Republican challengers, including:

Former Trump vice president Mike Pence dropped out in October 2023.

DeSantis entered the campaign as a younger, Trump-adjacent alternative, awash in Republican PAC money after using Florida as a conservative laboratory since becoming governor in 2019 and rolling to re-election in 2022. DeSantis ultimately lost many of his highly public culture battles in court, but the thinking was Conservatives would give him credit for at least trying.

None of that held up against the culture of Trump, who jumped ahead by 40-point polling margins in 2023 even as he was skipping debates for court appearances and DeSantis was slogging it out with his competitors on stage. As DeSantis’ second-choice-by-default status began to erode with some notable debate performances by Haley and Ramaswamay’s lightning rod personality started gaining attention, DeSantis began poking at an unthinkable approach: questioning the 77-year-old Trump’s mental acuity and fitness for office.

Is Joe Biden a Value Pick in the 2024 Presidential Election Odds?

Is an incumbent president, second-choice at +110 a value pick?

Barring something earth-shaking politically — wait, that happens all the time, now — Biden will be the Democratic nominee. And his challenger is facing federal prison time despite his hardened cadre of supporters nationally and in the halls of power in Washington.

But it’s politics. So, you never know. Interestingly, a generic Democrat winning the election has lower odds (-110) than Biden (+110).

In October 2023, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips filed paperwork to pose a primary challenge to Biden. He’s little-known outside of Minnesota, making him a huge underdog. Of course, Barack Hussein Obama was an obscure member of the Illinois Senate in 2004 and the 44th President of the United States in 2008.

Next US President Odds Line Movement

Election betting odds — focusing on a long-term future result — are considered a futures bet, similar to the type you place on Super Bowl odds or Oscars odds to win Best Picture.

Like any futures odds, the betting lines will move as events occur leading up to the Nov. 5, 2024, election, and you can keep tabs on US election line movement with Gaming Today’s tracker:

ZOOM: MARKET:

NAME ODDS PROBABILITY
Donald Trump +104 49%
Joe Biden +122 45%
Gavin Newsom +1900 5%
Robert Kennedy Jr. +1900 5%
Kamala Harris +2400 4%
Nikki Haley +9900 1%
Pete Buttigieg +9900 1%
Ron DeSantis +9900 1%
Tim Scott +9900 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy +9900 1%

Implied probabilities are calculated using data offered by PredictIt.
Last Updated: 2024-05-19 03:00:02 PDT.

US Election Predictions

Predicting elections has become a political reporters’ fantasy league. There are tons of polls and surveys. A bettor or a political partisan can find one that reinforces their bias or shakes their belief.

One thing to keep in mind is that these generic polls often represent the popular vote. Biden beat Trump by about 7 million votes in 2020 when all the votes were counted, and recounted, and recounted in the case of Arizona. What really matters is polling in battleground states in terms of the Electoral College. Yet again, it appears that in a nation of 168 million registered voters, a few thousand suburbanites in Pennsylvania, Hispanics, and independents will decide the presidency in 2024.

With that in mind, here are some resources for polling data:

  • FiveThirtyEight: The gloss has been scuffed off Nate Silver’s wonky data-prediction-analysis poll hub the last few years. However, his website — named for the number of US electors — has a healthy collection of information available. This site even ranks polls.
  • SurveyUSA: The purported reigning champion of polls, says FiveThirtyEight.
  • University of Virginia Center for Politics: Watch that Electoral College
  • PredictIt: The dot-org affiliated with Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, has survived an existential court fight. It offers an excellent pulse-read for an informed and incentivized group of political observers.

How to Bet on Presidential Election Odds

 Into the 19th century, wagering on elections represented one of the earliest polling forms. Newspapers would check their local bookmakers to find which candidate was drawing a lot of bets and assume they would be the popular choice at the polls.

While a booming political betting market was shut down in the US after World War II, it’s still legal in several countries, including the United Kingdom and Canada.

Prediction markets like PredictIt can offer exchange wagering on politics if an approved academic institution uses its data.

Learn how to bet on sports and politics with the resources available at Gaming Today.

2024 Presidential Election Odds FAQ

Are there betting odds for US elections?

Yes, many sportsbooks offer odds for presidential elections, senate races, and other political events, but election betting is prohibited within the United States.

What are betting odds on the US presidential election?

According to DraftKings, Donald Trump (+150), Joe Biden (+200), and Gavin Newsom (+650) are the betting favorites in odds to become the next US president. At +150, a successful $100 bet on Donald Trump would net $150 in profit for a total payout of $250.

Who is the favorite to win the 2024 US election?

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Donald Trump (+150) is the favorite to win the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024.

What is a prediction market?

Like a stock exchange, prediction markets allow people to trade contracts that pay bettors based on the outcomes of future events.

According to Investopedia, the market prices are based on “individual expectations and the willingness of investors to put their money on the line for those expectations.”

What are some examples of prediction markets?

The three active prediction markets available to US residents are:

  • PredictIt
  • Iowa Electronic Markets
  • Kashi
About the Author
Brant James

Brant James

Senior Writer
Brant James is a senior writer who covers the sports betting industry and legislation at Gaming Today. An alum of the Tampa Bay Times, ESPN.com, espnW, SI.com, and USA Today, he's covered motorsports and the NHL as beats. He also once made a tail-hook landing on an aircraft carrier with Dale Earnhardt Jr. and rode to the top of Mt. Washington with Travis Pastrana. John Tortorella has yelled at him numerous times.

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