2024 Presidential Election Odds & Projections: Trump, Biden Are Favored

We’re less than one year away from the next presidential election, and it’s never too early to check out the 2024 US election odds.

The presidential futures will fluctuate throughout the election cycle. We have you covered with a one-stop source for election betting news throughout the debates, primaries, polls, and everything in between.

The election is slated for Nov. 5, 2024, and this presidential election odds tracker will keep you updated on how wagering and exchange markets view the race between Democratic incumbent Joe Biden (+200 at DraftKings) and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump (+140 at DraftKings).

Check back for updated election odds, trends, and polls that influence them.

2024 US Presidential Election Odds

The odds listed throughout this page are from DraftKings Sportsbook, which offers legal political betting in Ontario, Canada.

At DraftKings, Trump (+135) and Biden (+200) lead the presidential odds by a wide margin over Nikki Haley (+750) and Gavin Newsom (+800). Robert Kennedy Jr. (+2000), and Michelle Obama (+2000) round out the top six in odds to become the next US president.

At +135, a $100 bet on Trump would pay $135 in profit ($235 total) if the 45th president returns to the Oval Office.

Keep in mind betting on elections isn’t legal in the United States. Although American bettors can’t legally apply their opinions or emotions to a candidate as they would a sports team or an athlete, interest in political wagering has grown drastically in recent years. You can find US election odds at some of the best sports betting apps on the market.

Odds Swings and Odd Swings in DraftKings Presidential Market

Some notable line movements this week:

• Trump has shortened from +150 to his present +135 in the past two weeks despite constant reminders of his legal perils. He was at $140 last week.
• Biden (+200) hasn’t moved despite some positive domestic news and diplomatic advances in the Middle East.
• Republican Haley saw her odds slashed from +1200 to +750, easily making her the biggest mover in recent weeks. She’s had no big media splash, but the former South Carolina governor and UN ambassador has gained favor among high-dollar Republican donors as a Trump alternative and has hit the stump with her Medicare and Social Security reform plan.
• Newsom, California’s Democratic governor, has doggedly espoused his support for Biden and apparently bettors are listening. Despite eviscerating Florida governor and Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis in a debate, his odds fell from +650 to +800. DeSantis’ line (+2500) didn’t move.

2024 Presidential Party Odds

The most popular form of election betting involves wagers on individual candidates, but there are also presidential party odds that allow bettors to pick whichever party they expect to capture the West Wing next November.

US Election Betting Favorites

Only 10 of 45 incumbents who sought re-election as presidents failed to return to the White House. Two of those — George H.W. Bush and Trump — have occurred in the last 30 years.

Presidents Who Failed to Win Re-Election as Incumbents:

• John Adams (1797-1801)
• John Quincy Adams (1825-1829)
• Martin Van Buren (1837-1841)
• Benjamin Harrison (1889-1893)
• William Taft (1909-1913)
• Herbert Hoover (1929-1933)
• Gerald Ford (1974-1977)
• Jimmy Carter (1977-1981)
• George H.W. Bush (1989-1993)
• Donald Trump (2017-2021)

In the 2020 presidential election, Biden scored a 306-232 Electoral College victory over Trump.

Trump fell nearly 7 million votes behind Biden in the popular vote count.

Trump, awash in state and federal indictments for alleged crimes including election fraud and commandeering top secret documents after leaving office, hopes to exploit his loyal base and the unpopular Biden to claim back the Oval Office.

There have been rumblings about primary challenges to Biden, especially with his approval numbers typically dipping into the dreaded 30% range. But, just one Democrat, Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips, has so far filed paperwork.

Former Democratic blueblood Robert Kennedy Jr., whose uncle, John, was the 35th president and whose father and namesake was assassinated while running for office in 1968, is running as an independent because his views and opinions have strayed far from the party’s core beliefs.

Presidential Election Value Picks and Longshots

It’s rare for a Presidential campaign to sort itself out so quickly. No, the official nominees won’t be officially minted until their respective conventions in the summer of 2024. But unless something startling transpires, Biden will represent the Democrats.

Trump also currently enjoys a massive lead in the polls over his numerous Republican challengers, including:

• Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
• Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
• Former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley
• Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy

Former Trump vice president Mike Pence dropped out in October 2023.

Does anyone have a chance of taking down Trump, whose popularity has hardly been dented among Republicans despite his legal turmoil?

DeSantis entered the campaign as a younger, Trump-adjacent alternative, awash in Republican PAC money after using Florida as a conservative laboratory since becoming governor in 2019 and rolling to re-election in 2022. DeSantis ultimately lost many of his highly public culture battles in court, but the thinking was Conservatives would give him credit for at least trying.

None of that held up against the culture of Trump, who jumped ahead by 40-point polling margins in 2023 even as he was skipping debates for court appearances and DeSantis was slogging it out with his competitors on stage. As DeSantis’ second-choice-by-default status began to erode with some notable debate performances by Haley and Ramaswamay’s lightning rod personality started gaining attention, DeSantis began poking at an unthinkable approach: questioning the 77-year-old Trump’s mental acuity and fitness for office.

Is Joe Biden a Value Pick in the 2024 Presidential Election Odds?

Honestly, can you call an incumbent president second-choice at +185 a value pick?

Barring something earth-shaking politically — wait, that happens all the time, now — Biden will be the Democratic nominee. And his challenger is facing federal prison time despite his hardened cadre of supporters nationally and in the halls of power in Washington.

But it’s politics. So, you never know.

In October 2023, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips filed paperwork to pose a primary challenge to Biden. He’s little-known outside of Minnesota, making him a huge underdog. Of course, Barack Hussein Obama was an obscure member of the Illinois Senate in 2004 and the 44th President of the United States in 2008.

Presidential Election Line Movement

Election betting odds — focusing on a long-term future result — are considered a futures bet, similar to the type you place on Super Bowl odds or Oscars odds to win Best Picture.

Like any futures odds, the betting lines will move as events occur leading up to the Nov. 5, 2024, election, and you can keep tabs on US election line movement with Gaming Today’s tracker:

ZOOM: 24 HOURS1 WEEK1 MONTHMAX MARKET: PredictIt DraftKings

		NAME	ODDS	PROBABILITY	CHANGE
		Joe Biden	+150	40%	3.00%
		Donald Trump	+156	39%	-1.00%
		Gavin Newsom	+900	10%	-2.00%
		Nikki Haley	+1011	9%	—
		Robert Kennedy Jr.	+1900	5%	2.00%
		Ron DeSantis	+1900	5%	—
		Kamala Harris	+2400	4%	-1.00%
		Vivek Ramaswamy	+4900	2%	—
		Pete Buttigieg	+9900	1%	—
		Tim Scott	+9900	1%	—

News Events, Trends That Could Impact the Election

• Democrats performed very well in off-cycle elections nationally in November of 2023. With much of the Democrats’ momentum being fueled by pushback on anti-abortion legislation foisted by Republicans, Gov. Andy Beshear won re-election in red-red Kentucky and Democrats took control of both houses in Virginia. This rebuke in Virginia figures to have blunted the rise of Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin to a national stage at least in the near-, but possibly in the long-term also.
• West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin announced in November of 2023 that he would not seek what would have been a tough re-election to the US Senate. Though he often chaffed his fellow Democrats legislatively trying to defend his bona fides back home, Manchin was valuable as a chess piece in holding the Senate. That will be difficult now. Also, there are rumblings that Manchin could run for president, possibly further diluting Biden’s pool of voters.

US Election Predictions

Predicting elections has become a political reporters’ fantasy league. There are tons of polls and surveys. A bettor or a political partisan can find one that reinforces their bias or shakes their belief.

One thing to keep in mind is that these generic polls often represent the popular vote. Biden beat Trump by about 7 million votes in 2020 when all the votes were counted, and recounted, and recounted in the case of Arizona. What really matters is polling in battleground states in terms of the Electoral College. Yet again, it appears that in a nation of 168 million registered voters, a few thousand suburbanites in Pennsylvania, Hispanics, and independents will decide the presidency in 2024.

With that in mind, here are some resources for polling data:

• FiveThirtyEight: The gloss has been scuffed off Nate Silver’s wonky data-prediction-analysis poll hub the last few years. However, his website — named for the number of US electors — has a healthy collection of information available. This site even ranks polls.
• SurveyUSA: The purported reigning champion of polls, says FiveThirtyEight.
• University of Virginia Center for Politics: Watch that Electoral College
• PredictIt: The dot-org affiliated with Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, has survived an existential court fight. It offers an excellent pulse-read for an informed and incentivized group of political observers.

How to Bet on Presidential Election Odds

 Into the 19th century, wagering on elections represented one of the earliest polling forms. Newspapers would check their local bookmakers to find which candidate was drawing a lot of bets and assume they would be the popular choice at the polls.

While a booming political betting market was shut down in the US after World War II, it’s still legal in several countries, including the United Kingdom and Canada.

Prediction markets like PredictIt can offer exchange wagering on politics if an approved academic institution uses its data.

Learn how to bet on sports and politics with the resources available at Gaming Today.

2024 Presidential Election Odds FAQ