Intelligent planning leads to Preakness stupidity

May 24, 2005 7:29 AM

Well I was all over Afleet Alex in the Preakness, keying him first and second in trifectas and superfectas.

I keyed him on top in exactas and quinellas. I never did make a win bet at 3-1, after all what would I do if I ever got 3-1 on my money? Anyway I got back a BIG zero for my investment. That’s what you call great betting — having the winner and not cashing.

My Aunt NeNe from Steubenville called me and wanted to know how much I won on the race. She couldn’t even believe it that I never cashed a ticket.

At work all week, managing editor David Stratton and myself went over every possible outcome using Alex first and second. David didn’t cash a ticket either.

We went over a method brought up in a web chat with Andy Beyer prior to the Kentucky Derby. One handicapper stated that if you add up the last three Beyer ratings of all the horses, take the top six and box them you will hit the exacta and tri. Andy said that that was the dumbest thing that he ever heard.

One of the top six horses in the Derby was Giacomo. So we did the math and came up with the top six horses in the Preakness, they were High Fly, Greeley’s Galaxy, Giacomo, Closing Argument, Scrappy T and of course Afleet Alex. Now I could have made a one dollar six horse tri box which would have cost me $120.

I spent more than that in the race and would have gotten back $436 for a $1 tri, a $316 net profit. No, that would have been too easy! I could have keyed Alex first and second to those horses in dollar tri’s and spent $40, but that would have been too easy!

Instead I use him first and second with High Fly, Greeley’s Galaxy. Now it’s on to the Belmont.

The Preakness was an amazing effort by Afleet Alex and Jockey Jeremy Rose, turning what looked like a terrible spill into a runaway win. What amazed me about the race was finding the other horses. Where were they? We get Alex nearly falling and Scrappy T with a jockey who sensing defeat just took hold of his mount and eased him to the finish line. The rest of the field was up the track.

So much for all those big shot Florida horses and overrated times they ran at shorter distances against inferior opposition. This looks to be the end of the big fields for the Triple Crown races this year. I see seven or eight in the Belmont. The others are off looking for smaller fish to fry.

I don’t know if the Gaming Control Board would allow it, but a good prop bet would be if Ken Jennings loses the upcoming $2 million Jeopardy Challenge. The best Jeopardy players of the past 10 years and have been cut to a pair, who will take on Ken. I love Jeopardy even though I don’t get many right answers. I’m okay on the food and sports questions. Other than that, I’m usually at a loss.