Banking on a whole lot of spots

Nov 7, 2005 1:56 AM

What is a suitable strategy for keno play if we’re working with a short bankroll, say $10? What is the consummate ticket to play in this environment? With this series of columns we’ll attempt to answer this question.

For purposes of this exercise, we modified a standard 15-spot pay rate thusly:

 

7 out of 15 = $6.00

8 out of 15 = $20.00

9 out of 15 = $100.00

10 out of 15 = $397.00

11 out of 15 = $2,000.00

12 out of 15 = $8,000.00

13 out of 15 = $12,000.00

14 out of 15 = $25,000.00

15 out of 15 = $25,000.00

 

This pay rate has a house edge of 28.41 percent, which is the same as our benchmark 6-spot. A million players, each playing a simulated $10.00 worth of keno hit:

 

6 out of 15 864,383 times (we’d expect 863,480)

7 out of 15 299,320 times (we’d expect 298,897)

8 out of 15 73,297 times (we’d expect 73,314)

9 out of 15 12,579 times (we’d expect 12,671)

10 out of 15 1,511 times (we’d expect 1,520)

11 out of 15 105 times (we’d expect 123)

12 out of 15 10 times (we’d expect 6.5)

13 out of 15 0 times (we’d expect 0)

14 out of 15 0 times (we’d expect 0)

14 out of 15 0 times (we’d expect 0)

 

The house percentage on our simulation was 28.61 percent, about 0.2 percent higher than expected, but well within experimental limits, as the average player won $7.14 for each $10.00 wagered.

Overall, 164,519 of the 15-spot players won $10 or more, thus breaking even or better, about one chance in 6. This compares to about one chance in 8.5 for the 12-spot, about one chance in two for the deuce players, one in 24 4-spot players, one in 14 for 5-spot players, one in 26 for the 8-spot players, and one in 30 for the 6-spot. If we set aside the deuce, the 15-spot and the 12-spot are the best of the tickets.

Moreover, 14,205 of the 15-spot players won $100 or more; 115 15-spot players won $1,000 or more, and no 15-spot players won $10,000 or more. In these categories the 15-spot falls short of the performance of the six, eight and 12-spot tickets. Here is a comparison of our results so far:

 

 

$10 $100 $1,000 $10,000

Two 460,698 0 0 0

Four 41,001 30,523 0 0

Five 72,426 6,436 0 0

Five S 11,624 6,321 6,321 0

Six 33,135 32,147 1,289 0

Eight 38,708 25,336 1,632 46

Twelve 118,472 11,194 1,014 4

Fifteen 164,519 14,205 115 0

 

 

Based upon these results I’d assess the 15-spot roughly even with the 6-spot, but below the eight and the 12.

On a scale of one to five spikes, with five being the highest, Keno Lil rates the 15-on a short bankroll:

 

 

 

 

 

Well, that’s it for today. Good luck! I’ll see you in line!