Favorites flavor even on Thanksgiving avorites5pcol

Nov 29, 2005 12:49 AM

Well, the NFL was not good to the books once again this week as both favorites won and covered on Thanksgiving and the two favorites in the college games won and covered.

The books did recover on the college games Friday and Saturday with high profile teams like Texas, LSU, Louisville and Notre Dame not covering the high point spreads. However, that success was not enough to overcome the Sunday debacle especially with the Chargers and Rams both scoring touchdowns in overtime to cover.

The Miami Dolphins game did help as they beat the Raiders straight up in Oakland. I had the Miami and Cleveland game to go over the posted total last week and the Fish never even scored a point. Were these the same guys that suited up in Cleveland?

In a GT column last week it was stated that in the NFL if you could just pick the winning team you would be around 80% ATS. In fact this past week if you just picked the winning team in the NFL you would have gone 12-2-1 ATS. That includes taking in the Saints game as a loser, even though they were the favorite at one time.

So my advice is look at the teams before you see the point spreads and make your selections based on just what team you think will win the game. Just make a mental try of it this week and see how you do.

Just watching some of the games this past week it amazed me how some teams have packed it in! How could the Lions just not show up at home on Turkey Day? Florida State was a complete embarrassment in their no contest against hated rival Florida. But the game that really got me was Colorado looking like it didn’t even want to be there in a 30-3 loss as 17-point home favorites against a not so good Nebraska team. Buffaloes fans were throwing what ever they could onto the field in disgust.

The only fans that I saw this past week that were more outraged were at Hollywood Park this past Saturday when the stewards DQ the 2yo colt Bob And John, who was a nine length winner in a big stakes race. This was a new low for the Southern Cal stewards. You could just see Bob Baffert, the trainer, steaming to no end. He looked like that Ibis creature that comes out of the tunnel in that fog before every Miami Hurricanes football game.

Horse racing is trying to garner a new fan base, I really don’t think that they are on the right road with calls like this.

College Football

Thursday, Dec. 1

Akron +13½ vs. N.Illinois (51): The MAC title game in Detroit. Akron won first meeting this year at home as a seven point dog, 48-42. Now the Zips are getting almost two TDs on a neutral field. Both teams are playing well, so must take the inflated number. AKRON.

Saturday, Dec. 3

Army +6½ at Navy (50½): Army has had little luck against the Navy, going 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings. of late. The last Cadets win came in 2001. Army has shown a lot of spark in late season, winning four straight games and covered their last four "board" games. Navy is the better team, though, and I’m with anything under 7. NAVY.

UCLA +22 at USC (73½): The Bruins took USC to the limit last year, losing 29-24 as a 21 point dog. I see no different scenario this time. UCLA can score and USC gives points up. USC no doubt is the better team, but must take the 22 in a game that will see a lot of points scored. UCLA.

SEC Championship

LSU —1½ vs Georgia (40): This matchup is slated for the Georgia Dome, supposedly a neutral site. Georgia opened —1, but got bet up in the Islands to LSU the favorite. These two did not meet this year, but the Tigers are still reeling from last year’s 45-16 slaughter in Athens. Both teams look good and one turnover either way will make the difference. I do believe the Tigers just may have a little more bite than the Bulldogs and, when push comes to shove, will be able to put up a late score for the win. Should be a defensive struggle. LSU, UNDER.

Last week: 1-1

Season: 41-44

NFL

Sunday, Dec. 4

Bengals +3 at Steelers (43½): Huge game for both teams and the crowd will be out of hand in the Steel City, I just wish I was there with Lenny and the gang sitting on the 50. As much as I am a Steelers fan, I don’t see this as a good spot for them. Especially, coming off the high intensity game with the Colts last Monday. Cincy itching for some revenge from the 27-13 loss at home in late October. I hope the Steelers win by 1 or 2, but just don’t see a spread cover even with a healthy Big Ben. CINCY

Last week: 1-1

Season: 10-18-2