Tis the season to be jolly and the Tra La La bowl games begin in a week. You’ll have ample time to make assessments; as usual you’ll have a large menu.
There are a number of rules we sportsmen should follow while attempting to close out 2006 with a profit. You know how the stock market guys do in December — well, we all have a chance to duplicate their success.
Early betting should only be on favorites if you like a side. I’ve only made two such bets, both on the number one (Ohio State) and two (Michigan) teams in the country. If the line doesn’t go up on these teams "you can have my watch."
In fact, barring any off-field incidents (which occur every year) almost all the favorites will go up. Therefore, if you plan to bet a favorite put this paper down NOW and go bet on them.
I know it’s a risk but the underdogs can also have important suspensions, health issues, etc. Don’t you remember when you were 21 years old in a big city trying to have some fun? Even the coaches tell their players to "enjoy your bowl experience as you’ve worked hard to get here."
To help solidify my arguments try to think of some Arizona State kids in Hawaii, some Texas A&M players in San Diego, Oregon seniors in Las Vegas, Florida State guys in San Francisco, Clemson teenagers in Nashville ”¦ the list goes on and on.
Now let’s go to my favorite subject of college football totals. I make my own numbers, and if they are off by 8 points or more I bet them immediately over or under, it doesn’t matter. This year I’ve found 11 plays that fall into that category.
During the season I will always be aware of the weather conditions each week, but the bowl season is different as the line makers always favor the over due to the public’s reluctance to bet an under game.
Of the 32 bowl games this year I’d guess that by kickoff 75% of the totals will be higher. The wise guys will wait for the best numbers and bet them in most cases on the day of the game. The sharpest of wise guys will take some early leads and buy those games back on game day as their racket is to attempt to middle games and collect on both sides.
If you’re betting under have no fear of weather conditions as totals are based on perfect football conditions. If you’re betting over be careful of any outdoor grass field and wait until you know what to expect the day of the game.
Some weather related caution should be taken for the following locations: Albuquerque; Birmingham; San Francisco; Nashville; Memphis; and Charlotte. Early under betting only on those locations is suggested as bad weather can only help you.
Check all the lines as often as possible as they begin moving. A non-play today may be a good play tomorrow. I’ve found that the early games (before January 1) show many dogs getting the money with the late games ending up with the favorites covering.
Why this happens I don’t know, but Trust Me! The last time I said that to my wife it resulted in the birth of our middle son, Jeff! Believe me I don’t make this stuff up.
Here are this week’s gems.
Tennessee +3Â½ vs. Jacksonville: Titans have a better offense, Jags have a better defense, and the two teams are pretty evenly matched. I’ll take 3 and a half points and hope Young runs as well as he did last week.
Eagles +6 vs. Giants: These Division rivals are closer than 6 points. One turnover may make the difference here. The Philly defense will blitz Manning from every angle imaginable.