MLB’s bad weather
sends chills on ‘over’

Apr 17, 2007 4:59 AM

With baseball being hammered by the bad weather, there has been an onslaught of canceled games and a plethora of under results.

As I made my way in and out of about a dozen Race and Sports books, it seemed like everyone had an opinion of why there were so many unders. The majority of opinions reasoned that the cold weather favored the pitchers. Where have all the runs gone?

Just this past Sunday, the Reds beat the Cubs in "Chi Town" 1-0, the Blue Jays defeated the Tigers in Toronto 2-1, the Indians beat up on the Angels 2-1. There were several overs, but unders have ruled the game to this point.

Homers are way down. Maybe Major League Baseball done something to the baseballs? The past couple of years in Colorado, baseballs were kept in a humidor. It made them softer and much more difficult to hit out of light air Coors Field. Is it that, or perhaps MLB’s steroid policy succeeding?

We will all find out soon enough, but so long as unders remain about 30 games more than overs, I’m likely to favor low scores. Baseball has always been a sport to make money on, especially with run lines and streaks. Usually after the first couple of weeks you would find some nice streaks, but not the case thus far.

Most teams can’t get past a two wins before taking a loss. Only Arizona, with six straight victories, has put together a run of more than four. And, four of those victories came against the lowly Washington Nationals. There are always a few 10-game winning and losing streaks. If you can get on one, you can make some big bucks.

On the surface things look pretty equal except for teams like the Nationals and Kansas City. There is money to be made on the Nats and Royals if you have a little patience. Looking at the AL West and East, you will see how equal things look. Seattle leads the West with five wins and Texas is last with five wins.

Boston paces the East with six wins, while Tampa Bay is in the cellar with five. Put the D’Rays in with Washington and KC as a club to bet on with a little patience. Wait till they are getting +1½ runs and bet them. That Nats have won the last two times, KC is 1-1 and the Devil Rays are 1-0.

The NL West looks like a three team race with the Diamondbacks, Dodgers and the Padres. The Rockies really aren’t playing bad, but the Giants with Barry Bonds and Co. look to be also-rans — especially when the season gets to the midway point and BB needs rest.

In the Central, no team seems likely to pull away. The East looks like Atlanta and the Mets battling it out until late August.

Derby glance

The Run for the Roses is less than three weeks away and still looks to be wide open. Todd Pletcher seems to hold all the aces, but it also looked that way last year and he came up empty. The outcomes of the Bluegrass Stakes and Arkansas Derby didn’t clear up the picture.

In the Bluegrass, Polytrack specialist Dominican upset a very game Street Sense. Still, Dominican will have to prove he can run on dirt. We know Street Sense can and I don’t believe this horse will lose to Dominican in the Kentucky Derby. I also don’t know if SS can win with only two starts this year. That would be bucking a lot of history.

In the Arkansas Derby, the Steve Asmussen trained Curlin destroyed a weak field in improving to 3-0. However, Curlin enters the Derby with no races as a 2yo and only three lifetime starts. This guy can run, but will need some super power to break the jinx of Apollo dating back to 1882.

This guy has a very bright future. If I were his owners and trainer, I would wait until the Preakness and give him a big shot in a much smaller field. There will be a lot of backing on Curlin, but hype never ran and won the Kentucky Derby.