Novocain: How 3-12 turns pain to gain for bettors

August 07, 2007 6:10 AM
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Every baseball season there appears a pitcher, who for some unknown reason, is snakebit. Matt Cain is that person. The San Francisco right-hander allowed just three hits and fanned 11 going into the eighth inning of a game he led 3-0 at San Diego. He runs out of gas, is removed and the bullpen allows a game-tying 3-run homer. And, it’s been that way the whole year for the 22-year-old 3-12 pitcher with a 3.93 ERA and 107 strikeouts.

Wiseguys notice these flaws and jump on them. When Cain pitches this year, you blindly bet the other side. I did, cussed myself for being a fool, then cheered in amazement my good fortune and accurate assessment of a recurring situation.

 Profit can come both ways. From winners: Paul Byrd (Indians), Mark Buehrle (White Sox); Adam Wainwright (Cards), Jeff Francis (Rockies).

And losers: Brett Tomko (Dodgers); Chris Capuano (Brewers); The Weavers (M’s, Angels), Dontrelle Willis (Marlins), Andy Sonnanstine (D’Rays).

That’s why I’m having my best season ever in baseball. Just doing homework.

WEDNESDAY

Twins at Royals: Santana on the road against Odalis Perez! TWINS.

Red Sox at Angels: Lester a nice addition to Sox staff and not facing Lackey or Escobar is a break. SOX.

Braves at Mets: Big game Smoltz over B.Lawrence every time. BRAVES.

THURSDAY

M’s at O’s: Cabrera 5-0 lifetime against Seattle. ORIOLES.

Last wk: 6-1. 2007: 84-55 (60%)