Identifying keno trends

August 20, 2007 11:45 PM
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It’s hard to know when a "trend" is actually a trend. Football bettors like to use what they call trends in selecting games to bet.

For instance, a player might want to bet a conference underdog at home following a bye week because that situation has produced winners in three of the past four games.

Of course, with such a small sampling it’s difficult to rely on such a stat, especially when you’re backing it with hard-earned cash.

As a keno player, I think I found a trend in which major jackpots occur shortly after "re-setting" the keno machine.

Lately, I think I’ve found another trend that happens in a large volume of cases. And that is, if I hit a number of 6-of-7 jackpots on a Four Card Keno machine, by switching to 8-spots the machine often gives up a nice 7-of-8 catch with a payoff of 1,652-to-1.

This has happened several times over the last week. Sometimes it’s difficult to stop playing 7-spots because the machine "is acting" like it’s going to hit because of the 6-of-7 catches.

But more often than not the machine simply doesn’t get there for the big payoff, thus the 7-of-8 is a welcome "consolation prize."

I’ve also noticed that, while playing Four Card Keno, when a "mirror" pattern occur next to my cluster, it seldom ever follows that mine will be so fortunate.

Perhaps the machine is programmed to replicate the patterns you’ve marked, only in another section of the board, just to tease you into thinking you have hope. I don’t know. Or maybe the numbers I’ve marked are "locked out" of the machine’s hit pattern and fill in more liberally elsewhere.

But I’ve discovered through too many hours of hunkering down over keno machines that it doesn’t follow that I’ll catch a winner if the numbers next to mine keep filling in the same pattern.

Instead, what I have found is that a lot of "re-setting" of the machine sometimes helps to break this vicious, annoying cycle. That is, cashing out and starting again, or just closing out the keno game, returning to the main menu, and then coming back to the keno game you were playing.

I can’t offer a scientific explanation why this seems to work. Only each new game probably begins a new cycle for the computer, and most of the major jackpots I’ve ever hit were within a few plays of re-setting the machine.

How do I determine how frequently to reset the machine? Using the cluster example of four 8-spots marked onto 15 numbers (such as two adjoining columns), I re-set when it appears that the pattern isn’t getting the "appropriate" amount of hits for the total numbers marked.

With a total of 16 numbers marked, probability theory holds that you should catch, on average, four numbers per game. The odds of catching four are 3.98-1.

But, obviously, catching only four numbers out of 16 isn’t going to cut it. I’ve determined, that the machine is working "properly" when you can average six hits a game (the odds are 9-1).

For whatever reason, when a machine consistently hits six or more numbers out of 16, a big hit could be on the way.

And, by big hit I mean catching nine, 10 or 11 numbers. When you can corral that many numbers out of 16, it usually holds that the machine will put seven or eight of them into the right pattern, thus triggering a decent jackpot.

Like I noted, this isn’t scientific, mathematically-based or otherwise proven in a physics laboratory. But it seems to hold. Let me know if something like this has worked for you.