Here’s a lesson in college totals

August 28, 2007 5:24 AM


Last year I had some real success with betting on the college football totals. Somehow I devised a mathematical system based on total offensive and defensive yardage with extra points thrown in for offenses that are more passing-oriented.

These estimations began to work after the teams played three games at the beginning of the season. The good thing about the system is that it is completely statistic orientated and totally objective as opposed to "gut feelings," "revenge factors," coach’s deceptive comments, etc.

Please try to remember before placing a total wager to get an idea of the weather conditions on game day. Between on the Internet and The Weather Channel on TV you will at least be fairly certain of the possibility of bad weather. It’s especially important on grass fields for unders and artificial turf for overs.

On opening day, which is Thursday, we have Miami Ohio at Ball State, and last year’s stats force you to go over 51 in this game. Both offenses are respectable and the home team’s defense leaves much to be desired.

The sleeper on opening day appears to be UNLV at Utah State. With a 50 total the odds makers expect a blow out by UNLV, which doesn’t seem probable according to last year’s stats. The mighty Rebels will be starting a large question mark at the quarterback position. Beware of the UNLV trap here; I know Utah State stinks, but a full TD and a 50 point total seems unreasonable in this spot.

On Saturday the game of the day looks like Tennessee at California. There are many intangibles connected to this game, such as revenge factor and other garbage. My suggestion is to allow the present 53 total to go up at least 3-4 points and bet the game under and I don’t care who wins. Every week this season you’ll be exposed to must wins as the college rankings are really tough on one or two losses throughout the season.

Speaking of the rankings, with the offense and defense that USC brings to the table, I can’t see how they can be displaced from the Number 1 ranking until perhaps the final game of the year. I know I wouldn’t want to be UCLA this year and face the Pete Carroll-led Trojans. There will be some dog opportunities versus USC this year as the odds makers must continue to go higher and higher with the spread on America’s college team.

The key baseball match-ups this week will be the Padres hosting the amazing Diamondbacks and naturally the Yankees hosting the pitching rich Boston Red Sox. The Cubs will be hosting the Brewers but I don’t think that matchup is as significant as the Cardinals playing the Astros. Look out boys, here comes Fat Albert and The Boys.

P.S. I love the new Viva Viagra advertisement but I’m a little confused about that four hour thing. Oh well, I guess all medicines have some side affects.