By Anthony Kelly
Crunch time is here. The third and final round
of future book wagering opens on Thursday and concludes Sunday.
As trainer Bob Baffert pointed out at the
start of this year’s Triple Crown trail, “The early races don’t mean a
thing. It’s how the horses come on their final preps and the three weeks leading up
to the Derby that really counts.”
This past week, there was virtually little, if
any, activity on the East Coast in the East Coast Derby Dozen. However, this appears to be
the calm before the storm with four big prep races this Saturday — the Flamingo at
Hialeah, Lone Star Derby in Texas, Illinois Derby at Sportsman’s Park and the Santa
Anita Derby on the left coast — followed on April 14 by the Wood Memorial, Blue Grass
Stakes and Arkansas Derby. Within the next three weeks, we will get a clearer picture of
“The Run For The Roses”.
The Flamingo Stakes at Hialeah has drawn the
following probables: OUTOFTHEBOX should be favored, turfer PROUD MAN, Ernie
Paragallo’s GRIFFINITE, Frank Stronach’s THUNDER BLITZ, the
expensive yearling TALK IS MONEY, RADICAL RILEY, TOUR OF THE CAT and A.P.
TOPPER.
The Lone Star Derby in Texas has drawn a mixed
bag from both coasts including: the speedster D’WILDCAT, Louisiana Derby
winner FIFTY STARS and El Camino Real victor HOOVERGETTHEKEYS among the
entrants.
Our choice in The Illinois Derby at Sportsman’s
Park will be DREAM RUN trained by Paul McGee with DISTILLED a very close
second.
My current Derby picks are: MONARCHOS, A.P.
VALENTINE, BALTO STAR, POINT GIVEN and STREET CRY with a
sentimental leaning toward SONGANDAPRAYER.
Here is the “East Coast Derby Dozen”:
[Horse/trainer/jockey/sire/next start/comment]
1-Monarchos: Ward/Chavez/Maria’s
Mon/Wood/”The Move” heard round the world; did he peak too soon?
2-A P Valentine:Zito/Nakatani/A P
Indy/BG/set track record @ HIA-1:40.35[11/16] on lightning fast strip 3-Balto
Star: Pletcher/Guidry/Glitterman/Wood-BG-Ark/gelding; 1st-Spiral by 123/4 lengths/112
Beyer/3rd fastest in stakes hist.
4-Ommadon:
Walsh/Gryder/Grindstone/Wood/ 1st-Allow @ AQU; late starter.
5-Hero’s Tribute:Ward/Bailey/Sea
Hero/BG/adds hood & J.D. for Blue Grass after troubled trip at FG.
6-Songandaprayer: Dowd/Prado/Unbridled’s
Song/BG-Ark/speedy one needs to settle down early; contender if able to do so.
7-Outofthebox:
Flint/Nakatani/Montbrook/Flam/2nd-FOY; 2nd-FLA Dby; should be favorite in Flamingo.
8-Dollar Bill:Stewart/Day/Peaks And
Valleys/BG/Troubled 4th-LA Dby; next should tell story.
9-Invisible Ink:Pletcher/Velazquez/Thunder
Gulch/BG/troubled 3rd in FL Derby but couldn’t get win; late running style is a plus.
10-Richly Blended:
Perkins/Wilson/Rizzi/Wood/1st-Gotham; undefeated; 3 for 3; yet to run around 2 turns/mile
11-Distilled:
Pletcher/Smith/Hennesy/Illinois Derby/1st-Allow @ GP [100 Beyer].
12-Camden Park: Walden/Solis/A.P.
Indy/Undecided/4th Spiral; late closer threat for Ky; “One more chance” per
assistant trainer.
