NFL never certain

December 04, 2007 5:55 AM
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LAST WK COLLEGE NFL
7-3, 3-2 65-58 26-28-3

The popular sentiment among NFL experts is to put the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys in the Super Bowl. I think Pitt’s upset of West Virginia as a 4-TD underdog proves that nothing is absolutely certain.

One injury can change everything. What if Tom Brady went down for the season? Where would the Cowboys be if something happened to Tony Romo? The NFL truly is a week to week entity. Predicting who will be in the Super Bowl is for everyone here in Las Vegas, where sports books will gladly accept all futures bets.

Look at Detroit. Jon Kitna was predicting 10 wins for the Lions. His boast looked good at 6-2. Now it seems silly at 6-7. The Saints and Chargers have fans wondering what happened from last year. For both, there is still time to rebound.

Thus far, betting the Cleveland Browns has been a huge profit. The Browns led the AFC with a 9-1 record against the spread, and virtually all their games have gone OVER the posted total. But, there’s always concern that the law of averages will catch up.

So as we enter Week 14, we’re just focused on the present. If we have a bad week, we’ll adopt a new position.

Cowboys 10½ at Lions: Dallas has had 10 days to prepare for the Lions. Detroit is on a four-game losing streak. At 6-6, the Lions really need a win or say goodbye to a playoff berth. I see a flat spot for the Cowboys. LIONS.

Raiders +10 at Packers: Favre said he will start and we won’t doubt him. Oakland is on a two-game winning streak, which is news these days. Oakland tends to play close games so we’ll take the double-digit points. RAIDERS.

Vikings -7 at 49ers: With RB Adrian Peterson back, the Vikings are set to make a run at the playoffs. Off a nice win at home over Detroit, the Vikes should enjoy their trip to the Bay Area. The Niners have no offense with Dilfer at QB. If Smith starts, he’s not 100 percent. VIKINGS.

Browns -3½ at Jets: Cleveland is on the road again after last week’s setback at Arizona. Maybe some jet lag will set in for this trip to the Meadowlands. The Jets looked like the Patriots against hapless Miami. Kellen Clemens is improving. JETS.

Bucs PK at Texans: Tampa Bay is 8-4 and quietly making a mark in the NFC with Dallas and Green Bay getting all the press. Gruden has his team winning on the road, while Houston is going in the other direction. We’ll go with the hot team.. BUCS.

Giants +3 at Eagles: McNabb will probably be healthy enough to start. Philly has no love lost for the Giants, who have their own QB problems with an inconsistent Eli Manning. If Westbrook can stay healthy, look for him to decide the game. EAGLES.

Saints -5½ at Falcons (mon): The visiting team has had a huge edge in this series. No reason that shouldn’t continue. The Falcons are going nowhere. New Orleans is trying to secure a playoff spot and has been playing better of late. SAINTS.