I could go into some deep analysis on why the Patriots will or should cover the -12 in the Super Bowl, but you can hear all of that on one of the sports talk radio shows or ESPN with all the talking heads.
But if you have been tuning into and paying attention to all the so-called sharps and touts, they all have the same answer and that is Giants.
The game opened in a lot of places at -14, which was a very stupid number to throw out in the first place, but the -14 really doesn’t add up to a pot of beans as the books got off of that number so fast I doubt that there is very much money at +14 in the entire state.
So the -14 is a mute subject and really doesn’t mean a thing. The point spread has basically stamped itself all over the state at -12 so that it will go one way or the other more than a point.
As for the New York Giants, well their offense was completely stagnant from October 28 through December 16 when they were scoring around 16 points a game while going 4-3 straight up and 3-4 against the spread, and it looked like they would not even get a wildcard spot.
But they got in and finished the season losing a very hard-fought and close game to the Patriots 38-35. Believe me, the Giants are very lucky to be here and sometimes that luck will get you to the promise land ”¦ but not this time.
The Pats have been on a mission and although they haven’t covered a spread of late, that just won’t mean a thing in this game as I believe they were simply playing for the wins and had little intent of blowing anyone out.
But now it’s Super Bowl time and the jig is up for the Giants.
I really think the Patriots are the correct side in this game for various reasons. They could be one of the best teams of all time and want to prove it.
They are a better team than the Giants and have a head coach that will be pulling out everything in this game and will not call off the dogs if they get ahead by three touchdowns.
But my main two reasons — and they have nothing to do with any stat or silly trend — are they have to do with something I know since I have seen it time and again in my 30 years in this business.
If you ever saw the movie Let It Ride, this is a prime example. Richard Dreyfuss was having a very good day at the track and wanted to bet the next race but just could not make up his mind on which horse to bet, so he kept asking people who they liked and they would give him their horse with a lengthy reason why the horse would win.
Every time, however, he would scratch the horse off his program until there was just one horse left and that was the one he bet on ”¦ and it won.
I have been in at least a dozen books this past week and could not find one person that liked the Patriots, the undefeated Patriots with Tom Brady at quarterback and Randy Moss catching his passes.
Wow, nothing more needs to be said about this game, in my opinion. No one is picking them, but it’s the Patriots by 21.