Bet on totals for a better return

Feb 5, 2008 5:50 AM

It is true in all betting sports except baseball that the number put forth on a given contest should determine your alliance with one side or the other. I have always attempted to categorize teams primarily for over and under wagers, as I believe this form of betting over the long haul is by far more consistent in its results.

It has become more apparent to me that totals are by far more within range than straight up contests. To prove a point take this past college football season and you’ll surely have to agree with my point of view. Upsets ran rampant with high-ranking teams throughout the season. Numbers 1 through 5 continued to get knocked off at an astonishing rate.

The point spreads in most of these cases were totally irrelevant to the results, as teams were beaten straight up on a weekly basis. The totals on these contests, however, maintained their consistency, which is what all bettors should be concerned with.

This philosophy of consistent totals as opposed to inconsistent point spreads can be carried over to college basketball as well as the NBA. Our most recent examples involve the number 1 and 2 teams in the country as both North Carolina and Kansas got knocked off, but both totals exceeded the given number as both teams are certainly in the higher scoring categories of college basketball.

The free stat sheets that are available in all sports books should help you categorize each team as to home and away production on offense as well as defensive abilities. These stats are also exceptionally helpful in your analysis of the NBA.

The prime problem as I see it in betting professional basketball is you can never be certain of who is going to be playing. However, if you hold back your wager as long as possible you’ll at least be better off than blindly betting hours before game time.

Due to the rigors of the NBA schedule it becomes absolutely essential if your point guard or number two guard is playing that night. How would you like to bet on New Orleans when Paul is sitting out, or the Spurs without Duncan, or the Lakers without Kobe, and the list goes on and on.

College basketball is more consistent and reliable and just for fun I’ll give you a few teams that can afford to lose their superstar and the totals will remain in the same range. For a few under teams always use Pitt, St. Johns and TCU.

Generally speaking the Big Ten is an under league and the SEC match-ups have a tendency to be over games. Study your stats and let them rip and you’ll soon agree that playing the overs and unders are more fun and you’ll win more than you’ll lose. Try it, you’ll like it — "Mikey likes it."

Is it possible that two questions that are exact opposites can have identical correct answers? Well, try this one on for size: Question 1: What is the worst part of getting old? Question 2: What is the best part of getting old? Answer to both: GETTING OLD.

Give it a minute, you’ll get it. So I’ve got too much time on my hands, so what?

Have a great week!