Saber's Horse Selections for Sat., May 3, 2008

May 3, 2008 8:46 PM

Yesterday’s results

At Churchill we kept our Oaks to Derby double alive with four horses in the Derby – the 4-8-10-20. At Hollywood Park, we lost the first two races but won race three and ran one-two in race four with the exacta paying $29 for $2. We lost race five but our horses ran one-two-three in race six with the $1 tri paying $126.80. We ran first and second in races seven and eight with the late pick three paying $54 for a buck. At Bay Meadows, we caught the big price horse in race two but our singles in races one and three crocked. We swept the card after that with the late pick four paying $317 for a one dollar wager; I received some e-mails from those that played it, thanks for the thought.

Churchill Downs

Race 10: 134th Running of The Kentucky Derby

The rain came yesterday and the track was under water but things are supposed to clear up today so the track will dry out; but no one will know the effects it will have until the races begin so we will take a cautious approach. If Big Brown is the freak that his trainer Dick Dutrow says he is, then he should win; if not, he will get caught up in a speed duel from his far outside post as he will be winging it out there with Bob Black Jack, Cowboy Cal, Recapturetheglory and the very fast Gayego. If that happens it could be curtains for all five of them, unless Big Brown runs them into the ground. If so he wins and the others will be up the track gasping for air and the closers will be flying late down that long Churchill Downs stretch. So here is the approach we will take in the trifecta and superfecta.

We will key No. 20, Big Brown, on top with No. 2, Tale of Ekati, No. 4, Court Vision, No. 8 Visionaire, No. 9, Pyro, No. 10 Colonel John, and No. 11, Z Humor for a $1 trifecta. Then we will play a $1 superfecta with No. 20, Big Brown on top with No. 4, Court Vision and No. 10, Colonel John second with 4-6-10 third with 2-4-8-9-10-11 in the fourth slot. We will then make a four horse tri box and just toss out Big Brown as I believe he wins or is nowhere. We will box No. 4, Court Vision, No. 8 Visionaire, No. 9 Pyro and No. 10 Colonel John.

Hollywood Park

Race 1

This race stinks and we will pass.

Race 2

This one looks like a three-horse race with No. 1, Love Special, No. 3, Humidity and No. 9, Judge, in the West. 1-3-9

Race 3

There is a ton of early foot in this race and the best closer is No. 5, Minister Blair. I am not crazy bout the claim but he will get the perfect set up for his late run. 5

Race 4

No. 2, Waveland Avenue, has run two winning races but had to settle for second in both, this will be his third race off the layoff and it could be cap and gown time. No. 5, Premium Quality, was unlucky to lose last time out and this 7 furlong distance looks right up his alley. 2-5

Race 5

No. 8, Mr. Nappy Tandy, is a steady sort and looks like he will be first or second. Trainer Bobby Frankel has three entered in here but the one that looks best is No. , Strom Military, who won his only start on this course. 8-9

Race 6

Don’t like the inside, but the only ones that figured in here are No. 1, Hemet, and No. 2, Cousins Lew. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer drops Cousins Lew to $10k after the $16 k claim so all must not be to his liking; still if he clears he could be gone. 1-2

Race 7

No. 3, Catastaire, is just sitting on the maiden breaker and this could be it as Espinoza takes the mount. No. 10, Cavanal, will be the one to beat in here and the extra sixteenth of a mile can only help. 3-10

Race 8

No. 2, Six Again, is triple-jumped off the claim and this trainer, Puype, pops at about 21% first off the claim. He must really like the purchase – we will single and take our shot. 2

Race 9

It’s a two-horse race in here with No. 3, Incurable Lou, and No. 4, Rudeameani, the speedster coming back from the layoff. 3-4

Race 10

No. 6, Valiant Effort, looks faster then these and may have landed an easy spot for win number four; this one looks like another single. 6

Race 11

We will use four horses in the last leg of the late pick four: No. 3, Cold Prince (Van Berg is due to pop with a bomber), No. 6, Ilikeitalot, who showed improved speed in his last, No. 10, Rydell, the likely chalk who just missed last time out but a 7-year-old maiden is not a good bet especially when being the favorite but that says how bad this field is. Our last horse will be No. 12, Maj. Trouble, who is 0-12, but just missed on this course last June.


Bay Meadows

Race 1: 2-3

Race 2: 3-5-7

Race 3: 4-6-7

Race 4: 1-5

Race 5

1-6-7-8 (turf only)

Race 6: 9-10-11

Race 7: 5-7

Race 8

No. 3, Superstar Justin, ships in from down South and is dropped to the bottom; if he has three legs he wins this race, if not it could be No. 6, Barney. 3-6

Race 9: 5-8-9

Remember to check for late scratches and changes.