Saber's Horse Racing Betting Tips - 07-23-08

Jul 23, 2008 8:19 PM

by Richard Saber |

Del Mar

Race 1

This will be the first of five 2yo races which include the feature today the Graduation Stakes which is one of the weakest I have ever seen. In here the 2yo filles that have run just don’t look like much, so you would have to go with the three first time starters out of top barns, No. 6 Flash Dance, No. 7 Liz’s Broom and No. 8 Jaded Illusion. We cant get to involved so we will just play an early double using all three. 6-7-8

Race 2

This is one of the few starter allowance races for 2yo fillies that you will see. No. 3 Miss Dixie Dancer romped at Golden Gate in her one and only and now shows up in this spot with top jock Bejarano up. No. 4 Makasi ran big in breaking her maiden last time out and this fillies is faster then any of the boys lined up for the Graduation. No5 Upper Manhattan is also very fast and rounds out the competition. 4-5-6

Key Play

$2 double

1st 6-7-8

2nd 4-5-6 for $18

Race 3

I like four in here starting with No. 1 Enlightened Lady who won last time out for trainer Henry Moreno who don’t win many, he went off at 41/1 that day and will offer another big price today. No. 4 Paloma’s Flight has hung in her last two but looks good on numbers and is a must use. No. 7 Sheza Maneater is fast and if the track is playing fair she will be one tough lady to run down in the stretch. No. 8 Tripped the Light exits our HTW list and this girl just stormed home for her maiden win last time out and gets her first start of the Hollendorfer claim, she will be the one to fear most late. 1-4-6-8

Key Play

$1 tri box 1-4-6-8 for $24

$4 key Q 6 with 1-4-8

Race 4

No. 8 The Final Roar is ran much faster than any of the horses lined up for the feature Graduation Stakes and looks like an odds on winner in this race. It would take a very love first time starter to upset him. No. 1 Satyrs just may be that animal as he is out of the Craig Dollase barn and he can pop with a first timer. 1-8

Key Play

$5 exact box 1-8

Key Play

$2 doubles

3rd 1-4-6-8

4th 1-8 for $16

$4 doubles

3rd 4-6-8

4th 8 for $12

Race 5

More maiden 2yo fillies and this one really looks like a grab bag. No. 1 is out of the Wesley Ward barn and he is best with 2yo and she did not run that bad in her two furlong races, the extra distance can only help her cause. No. 2 Virgin finds her way here via Churchill Downs and show up here in the barn of Frank Monteleone and he rides his main man Espinoza. No. 3 Pretty Caroline is a very live first time starter but will get overbet as most of the Conlon horses that are owned by John Liviakis do as this owner loves to send it in. 1-2-3

Key Play

$2 double

4th 8

5th 1-2-3 for $6

Race 6

There are several angle plays in this race starting with No. 2 Grecian 8/1 in the morning line, this mare loves this flat mile on the grass and ran the best race of her career last year when finishing second to the very tough Dreams, she will be on or near the lead from start to finish. No4 No Ka Oi will also show her speed and ran a career best last time out at this distance on the Hollywood grass first off the Steve Knapp claim. No. 5 Honored Gold is the first of two Mitchells in here (not an entry) and this 4yo fillie will once again get a good stalking trip behind the speed, she has three wins and one second from three starts on this course. No. 6 The King’s Lass is out of the red hot Kathy Walsh barn who is pumping out winners right and left, she adds more speed to the lineup. No. 8 Brendolyn won here on this course at a flat mile back in 06’ and gets Gomez up. No. 9 Nootka Island another who exits our HTW list is a Mike Mitchell claim back, he lost this girl for 80k back in December of last year and just bought her back for 50k on June 19, the fact that Brice Blanc will be riding means that they will be coming from out of it today. What do we do? We will play some Q’s and make a trifecta and superfecta. 2-4-5-6-8-9

Key Play

$4 Q 2 with 4-5-6-8-9 for $20

$3 Q 5 with 4-6-8-9 for $12

$1 tri 2-5 with 2-5 with all for $14

$1 tri 2-5 with all with 2-5 for $14

$1 super 2 with 5 with 4-6-8-9 with 4-6-8-9 for $16

Race 7

Scratch No. 6 Glorious One which is on our HTW list, we will wait another day.

The 57th Running of the Graduation

No. 2 Triumphant Flight broke from the inside in his first start and battled tooth and nail while stuck down on the rail, got passed in the lane but came back on and was actually drawing away on the line showing great determination albeit in not so fast of a time. No. 5 Atlantra’s Tantrum just broke his maiden at Pleasanton but shows up here in the Mitchell barn, he looks to be coming around with that last bullet work and jockey Enriquez rides for the owner Tommy Town and that usually means go. No. 8 Making Dreams has been banging heads with the best 2yo in the west and finds a much easier spot. 2-5-8

$4 exacta box 2-5-8 for $24

$1 tri box 2-5-8 for $6

Race 8

This is one bad bunch of 3yo 40k maiden fillies. No. 8 Promise Rose is the only one in here of the ones that have run to show any ability at all and she will be a single on most of the pick six tickets. No. 1 Sweet Anita is only 5/1 in the morning line, she is a first time starter on the rail for a trainer who very seldom wins a race let alone with a first time starter and that shows how bad these are. No. 3 Haleakala Heat has never run a step in her two lifetime starts but shows a nice work and a big drop in class for her first start since last September so maybe trainer Spawr has this one ready to run a little and that’s all it would take, she looks like a live longshot. No. 4 Ladrona 4/1 in the morning line with Iggy Puglisi up is a first time starter out of the J. Sahadi barn, I wouldn’t take 8/1 on this girl let alone 4/1, Sahadi is 0 for 18 with first time starters and Iggy has two wins from 59 mounts this year. No. 6 Las Patronas Lady is a lightly race 4yo filles who has in the past showed a little bit of ability, she is dropped off the layoff by a real good trainer and is a must use. 3-6-8

Key Play

$10 key Q 8 with 3-6 for$20

$1 tri box 3-6-8 for $6

$1 tri key 8 with 3-6 with all for $16

$1 pick three

6th 2-4-5-6-8-9

7th 2-5-8

8th 8 for $18

SANTA ROSA

Opening Day

Race 3

2-4-6

Race 4

2-4-5

Race 5

No. 1 Joy to the Moon may be able to clear in here form her rail post and if jockey Gonzalez can slow it up enough she could be long gone. NO. 1

Key Play

3rd 2-4-6

4th 2-4-5

5th 1

Race 6

No. 2 Sister Sally is a turf specialist with two wins and a third from three turf starts plus she is two for two at this 1 1/16 distance. She will be on or near the lead and will have to be caught down the stretch. No. 8 You Lift Me Up will be the one to fear late with R Baze in the irons for trainer Jerry H. These look to be the main two but there are three others in here that may off a price, No. 1 Sweet On Cash 10/1, No. 4 Little Bug and NO. 5 Shes A Lucky Wager. 1-2-4-5-8

Key Play

10 cent super box 1-2-4-5-8 for $12

$2 key Q 2 with 1-4-5-8 for $8

$2 key Q 8 with 1-2-4-5 for $8

$1 tri 2-8 with 2-8 with 1-4-5 for $6

$1 tri 2-8 with 1-4-5 with 2-8 for $6

Race 7

This race is so bad I cant even look at it any more, pass.

Race 8

Big class dropper No. 8 Source of Pleasure looks best if he is in one piece, we will single in some last doubles. No. 8

Race 9

No. 1 La Misteriosa will get a great rail trip in this 1 1/16 turf route. No. 3 Six Cents of Humor has been facing much tougher and gets back to her best trip and at 15/1 she looks like longshot material. No. 4 La Petra is the speed and they will have to run her down. No. 5 Patranzi has won three of eight turf routes and is in top form. No. 8 Summer Stitch likes the grass and gets jockey Kaenel up today, he will take back and stalk today.

1-3-4-5-8

$2 double

8th 8

9th 1-3-4-5-8 for $10

10 cent super box 1-3-4-5-8 for $12

CHECK FOR LATE SCRATCHES